Aug 9, 2008

Lou Dobbs Take Note: Social Security Trust Fund Projections May Be Unreliable Due To Failure To Consider Immigrant Earnings

The most recent issue of the Social Security Bulletin has been released. It is labeled Volume 68, Number 1. I think they got so far behind in issuing the Social Security Bulletin that they no longer even put a date on them.

One interesting article tells us that the earnings of immigrants have not been factored into projections of the future financial status of the Social Security trust funds. Given the volume of immigration into the United States in recent decades, this tells me that the projections we now have of the future status of the Social Security trust funds may be unreliable. The trust funds may be in better shape than anyone realized. I am surprised that this is the first time that I have heard of this issue.

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

You need to make the distinction between legal immigrants and illegal immigrants. I think most people have no problem with people that have followed the rules to come here to live and/or work, myself included.

However, I have no sympathy for people that are in this country illegally and working. They need to be rounded up by any means necessary and tossed out of the country and kept from returning.

Anonymous said...

Your statement that "the earnings of immigrants have not been factored into projections of the future financial status of the Social Security trust funds" is incorrect. As the article states, "In general, there is no explicit treatment in the actuarial projections of potential differences between immigrants and natives in labor force variables such as earnings." In other words, the earnings of immigrants are factored into the projections, but the actuaries assume that the earnings of immigrants will be the same as the earnings of nonimmigrants. This is clearly a shortcoming, but it is not clear if improvements in the modeling would result in more or less optimistic projections.

Anonymous said...

Illegal aliens should be deported, not supported.