Nov 19, 2013

Wedge Issue?

     The idea of raising Social Security benefits is increasingly becoming a favorite among more liberal Democrats. Senator Warren just came out in favor of the idea. This is not going to happen while Republicans control the House of Representatives. Theoretically, control of the House could change next year but it would take a Democratic landslide. More realistically, raising Social Security benefits could be in the Democratic platform in 2016. It would make a nice wedge issue. Republicans skew older.  More than half of Republican voters are over 50. One major problem for Democrats has been that the public doesn't understand the Affordable Care Act. They will eventually and I'm convinced they'll like it a lot but a 10% rise in Social Security benefits is easy to understand and easy for many who now vote Republican to like.
     By the way, I'm not terribly interested in hearing Republicans argue that raising Social Security benefits is bad because that money should go to younger people. A party doing everything possible to hurt public education ought to be ashamed to make that argument.

5 comments:

Mike B. said...

Right - countries that have generous benefits for retirees tend to spend more on children, and the people who want to cut Social Security often want to cut other spending also.

An increase in Social Security now is not going to happen, as you say, but it's still good for people to push for it. If we're going to change Social Security, we should first have a debate about what benefits should be - whether lower or higher - and then figure out how to finance it. We shouldn't just accept that the trust fund might run out of money in 20 years and the only solution is cuts now.

Anonymous said...

On the one hand you endorse increasing benefits by 10% then on the other hand you state, "There are two real threats to Social Security at the moment, the probability that the Disability Trust Fund will run out of money in 2016 or 2017..."

Do you have any real understanding or point in all of this? Sometimes, I think you have a split personality or don't read what you publish..

Anonymous said...

Charles--where will the billions of dollars such an increase would cost come from? You are delusional but I still like the blog.

Anonymous said...

Not sure either party can claim to be actually helping public education right now. Secretary Duncan is out there sticking his foot in his mouth, the teachers' unions (almost invariably Democrat supporters) still put teachers above students, Republicans haven't had a cohesive education platform in years... It's an issue of buzzwords but little effectiveness, and innovation isn't even in the picture. Anyway, back to disability stuff...

Given the central role that Obamacare looks to play in '16, I'm not sure increased SS benefits could serve as the wedge issue you envision. Maybe, but I doubt it. Especially with fiscal mismanagement remaining a hot-button issue, paired with a strong opposition to Obamacare among nearly all Republican voters and a strong percentage of independents. Just don't see how any SS benefit level issue could overtake Obamacare and fiscal policy as a decisional driver...

Anonymous said...

I read Senator Harkin's proposal. It is to increase the first "Bendpoint" by 15%, thus resulting in a higher return on lower wages when calculating a Social Security benefit. Although I would welcome any proposal to help lower income retirees, the problem is changing the formula to simply increase the amount of AIME subject to a 90% return benefits everybody, even those who weren't low wage workers (e.g, Bill Gates gets the same increase that Joe Six-Pack gets).

I'm not sympathetic to GOP complaints about transfer of wealth from low wage workers to wealthy retirees (it's the first time in history that the GOP worried about millionaires getting a windfall) but any change in Social Security benefits which applies across the board is open to exactly that argument. The low wage worker who doesn't even have to pay income taxes still has to pay FICA, and the FICA is transferred not just to Joe Six-Pack, but to Bill Gates as well. Senator Harkin's proposal needs to be more thought out than it is.