Many reasons: Boomers shifting to retirement benefits; low unemployment; gig economy makes it easier than ever to drop in and out of the workforce; more widespread healthcare coverage through exchanges. The list goes on…
It was exactly as predicted when the furor arose over the increase in the disability rolls back in 2014. But, telling people that was the cause, when they chose to believe that somehow the ALJs were just giving it all away, didn't impress.
What will they use to justify the changing in the disability rules rumored to be in the works?
Mostly baby boomers aging into RIB. And the increase caused by people age 65-67 staying on DI has now run its course. Also more people awaiting disability determinations--that delays awards and deters people from applying for DI (some may opt to claim early retirement instead). Add in the excess deaths in 2020-2022 (can't apply for or receive DI if you died) and various economic factors.
Have you read that the participation rate of the labor market has steadily been going up? Secondly, are you aware that Medicaid is due for a trillion dollar cut after the midterms? Your statement falls into the alternative facts talking points.
I think it's bifurcated--some people (often rich ones) have more accommodating jobs and some people (mostly poor) haven't paid enough into the system to be insured so don't qualify even if disabled. Also remember that in a backlog of a million pending claims, there are probably about 350k people who will ultimately be awarded. That could bend the curve a bit.
I couldn't even get a benefits letter online to compile up for me, pretty sure applications are a jumbled mess too. Make they system a total mess, and it makes the numbers look good for those that like seeing people give up.
People are transitioning to retirement benefits/dying faster than people are being approved. Pretty much that simple. What? Some think it's because people are going back to work? Wouldn't go with that.
Many are giving up since the service is so bad. Expect the disability applications to increase once the unemployment rate goes up.
ReplyDeleteI would guess it's that as baby boomers convert from DIB to RIB at FRA they are not being replaced on a 1-to-1 basis with younger DIB recipients.
ReplyDeleteThis.
DeleteWouldn't it be because Baby Boomers are again into Retirement?
ReplyDeleteMany reasons: Boomers shifting to retirement benefits; low unemployment; gig economy makes it easier than ever to drop in and out of the workforce; more widespread healthcare coverage through exchanges. The list goes on…
ReplyDeleteThe drop correlates to when I joined the agency LOL.
ReplyDeleteIt was exactly as predicted when the furor arose over the increase in the disability rolls back in 2014. But, telling people that was the cause, when they chose to believe that somehow the ALJs were just giving it all away, didn't impress.
ReplyDeleteWhat will they use to justify the changing in the disability rules rumored to be in the works?
Mostly baby boomers aging into RIB. And the increase caused by people age 65-67 staying on DI has now run its course. Also more people awaiting disability determinations--that delays awards and deters people from applying for DI (some may opt to claim early retirement instead). Add in the excess deaths in 2020-2022 (can't apply for or receive DI if you died) and various economic factors.
ReplyDeleteHave you read that the participation rate of the labor market has steadily been going up? Secondly, are you aware that Medicaid is due for a trillion dollar cut after the midterms? Your statement falls into the alternative facts talking points.
ReplyDeleteA healthier population? Greater demand for workers? Better employer accomodations? Changing distribution of jobs (highly educated; more automation)?
ReplyDelete~ potential theories noted in a SSA Chief Actuary presentation from August 2023: https://www.ssa.gov/OACT/presentations/ocact_20230825.pdf
I think it's bifurcated--some people (often rich ones) have more accommodating jobs and some people (mostly poor) haven't paid enough into the system to be insured so don't qualify even if disabled. Also remember that in a backlog of a million pending claims, there are probably about 350k people who will ultimately be awarded. That could bend the curve a bit.
DeleteThis study was done in August 2023 and TWO years have passed. It would be wise to use updated material.
DeleteI couldn't even get a benefits letter online to compile up for me, pretty sure applications are a jumbled mess too. Make they system a total mess, and it makes the numbers look good for those that like seeing people give up.
ReplyDeletePeople are transitioning to retirement benefits/dying faster than people are being approved. Pretty much that simple. What? Some think it's because people are going back to work? Wouldn't go with that.
ReplyDeleteTwo words: Eric Conn
ReplyDelete