Many reasons: Boomers shifting to retirement benefits; low unemployment; gig economy makes it easier than ever to drop in and out of the workforce; more widespread healthcare coverage through exchanges. The list goes on…
It was exactly as predicted when the furor arose over the increase in the disability rolls back in 2014. But, telling people that was the cause, when they chose to believe that somehow the ALJs were just giving it all away, didn't impress.
What will they use to justify the changing in the disability rules rumored to be in the works?
the people who want to make the disability rules tighter formed their understanding of the program between 2000 and 2010 and extrapolated forever. They never updated post Great Recession.
Mostly baby boomers aging into RIB. And the increase caused by people age 65-67 staying on DI has now run its course. Also more people awaiting disability determinations--that delays awards and deters people from applying for DI (some may opt to claim early retirement instead). Add in the excess deaths in 2020-2022 (can't apply for or receive DI if you died) and various economic factors.
Have you read that the participation rate of the labor market has steadily been going up? Secondly, are you aware that Medicaid is due for a trillion dollar cut after the midterms? Your statement falls into the alternative facts talking points.
I think it's bifurcated--some people (often rich ones) have more accommodating jobs and some people (mostly poor) haven't paid enough into the system to be insured so don't qualify even if disabled. Also remember that in a backlog of a million pending claims, there are probably about 350k people who will ultimately be awarded. That could bend the curve a bit.
As it turns out, OACT just posted an entire presentation on this topic today: https://www.ssa.gov/OACT/presentations/ocact_20250821.pdf.
As other commenters noted, it's partly boomers aging out of their disability years into retirement. But it's more than that -- there's a lot of unknowns too. To quote the actuaries, "Numbers of beneficiaries have been declining since 2013 and are well below earlier expectations that fully reflected demographic changes." They note that we don't really know if these declines will be permanent or temporary, or what's driving them - they list a handful of possibilities on slide 16.
@5:06 - you didn't bother to check the cite or you would have realized it's a list of theories in a presentation on the future of mortality, disability, and work, and not some novel study. Try harder.
I couldn't even get a benefits letter online to compile up for me, pretty sure applications are a jumbled mess too. Make they system a total mess, and it makes the numbers look good for those that like seeing people give up.
People are transitioning to retirement benefits/dying faster than people are being approved. Pretty much that simple. What? Some think it's because people are going back to work? Wouldn't go with that.
Fewer applications and people aging out. If the number of applications were overlaid on this graph it would probably follow a similar contour. The number of beneficiaries is about the same as it was when the 2008 recession hit.
Applications don't have the same curve--those received at the DDSs bottomed out in 2022 and have been increasing since then. But many applications are stuck in the application and appeals process longer than they have been in the past. And any growth in applications or awards is outpaced by people coming off the rolls (mostly by hitting FRA or dying; a tiny bit because people return to work)
OCACT actually presented some information on this today. https://www.ssa.gov/OACT/presentations/ocact_20250821.pdf
However, they seemed to be much more concerned with the what rather than the why. Why would anyone offer additional insight if their job is on the line?
Many are giving up since the service is so bad. Expect the disability applications to increase once the unemployment rate goes up.
ReplyDeleteI would guess it's that as baby boomers convert from DIB to RIB at FRA they are not being replaced on a 1-to-1 basis with younger DIB recipients.
ReplyDeleteThis.
DeleteIn other words, demography.
DeleteWouldn't it be because Baby Boomers are again into Retirement?
ReplyDeleteMany reasons: Boomers shifting to retirement benefits; low unemployment; gig economy makes it easier than ever to drop in and out of the workforce; more widespread healthcare coverage through exchanges. The list goes on…
ReplyDeleteThe drop correlates to when I joined the agency LOL.
ReplyDeleteIt was exactly as predicted when the furor arose over the increase in the disability rolls back in 2014. But, telling people that was the cause, when they chose to believe that somehow the ALJs were just giving it all away, didn't impress.
ReplyDeleteWhat will they use to justify the changing in the disability rules rumored to be in the works?
the people who want to make the disability rules tighter formed their understanding of the program between 2000 and 2010 and extrapolated forever. They never updated post Great Recession.
DeleteMostly baby boomers aging into RIB. And the increase caused by people age 65-67 staying on DI has now run its course. Also more people awaiting disability determinations--that delays awards and deters people from applying for DI (some may opt to claim early retirement instead). Add in the excess deaths in 2020-2022 (can't apply for or receive DI if you died) and various economic factors.
ReplyDeleteHave you read that the participation rate of the labor market has steadily been going up? Secondly, are you aware that Medicaid is due for a trillion dollar cut after the midterms? Your statement falls into the alternative facts talking points.
ReplyDeleteA healthier population? Greater demand for workers? Better employer accomodations? Changing distribution of jobs (highly educated; more automation)?
ReplyDelete~ potential theories noted in a SSA Chief Actuary presentation from August 2023: https://www.ssa.gov/OACT/presentations/ocact_20230825.pdf
I think it's bifurcated--some people (often rich ones) have more accommodating jobs and some people (mostly poor) haven't paid enough into the system to be insured so don't qualify even if disabled. Also remember that in a backlog of a million pending claims, there are probably about 350k people who will ultimately be awarded. That could bend the curve a bit.
DeleteThis study was done in August 2023 and TWO years have passed. It would be wise to use updated material.
DeleteAs it turns out, OACT just posted an entire presentation on this topic today: https://www.ssa.gov/OACT/presentations/ocact_20250821.pdf.
DeleteAs other commenters noted, it's partly boomers aging out of their disability years into retirement. But it's more than that -- there's a lot of unknowns too. To quote the actuaries, "Numbers of beneficiaries have been declining since 2013 and are well below earlier expectations that fully reflected demographic changes." They note that we don't really know if these declines will be permanent or temporary, or what's driving them - they list a handful of possibilities on slide 16.
@5:06 - you didn't bother to check the cite or you would have realized it's a list of theories in a presentation on the future of mortality, disability, and work, and not some novel study. Try harder.
DeleteI couldn't even get a benefits letter online to compile up for me, pretty sure applications are a jumbled mess too. Make they system a total mess, and it makes the numbers look good for those that like seeing people give up.
ReplyDeletePeople are transitioning to retirement benefits/dying faster than people are being approved. Pretty much that simple. What? Some think it's because people are going back to work? Wouldn't go with that.
ReplyDeleteTwo words: Eric Conn
ReplyDeleteFewer applications and people aging out. If the number of applications were overlaid on this graph it would probably follow a similar contour. The number of beneficiaries is about the same as it was when the 2008 recession hit.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
DeleteApplications don't have the same curve--those received at the DDSs bottomed out in 2022 and have been increasing since then. But many applications are stuck in the application and appeals process longer than they have been in the past. And any growth in applications or awards is outpaced by people coming off the rolls (mostly by hitting FRA or dying; a tiny bit because people return to work)
DeleteOCACT actually presented some information on this today.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.ssa.gov/OACT/presentations/ocact_20250821.pdf
However, they seemed to be much more concerned with the what rather than the why. Why would anyone offer additional insight if their job is on the line?
JFK’s MAHA movement must really be taking off! All those folks got healthy and dropped off the disability rolls! (This is sarcasm, folks!)
ReplyDelete