The Associated Press has put out a story saying that the annual report on the state of the Social Security and Medicare trust funds is being delayed until June 30, three months later than usual so that the effects of health care reform can be factored in. I doubt that health care reform will have any effect upon the Social Security trust funds in the near term. Increased longevity could have an effect upon the trust funds in the long term. In fact, I have read that health care reform should be judged primarily based upon its effects upon longevity. Health care reform certainly will have major effects upon the Medicare trust funds in the next five years.
CBO had projected a $52 billion increase in SS Trust Fund revenues in the next 10 years due to a shift in employee compensation from fringe benefits (health insurance premiums) to taxable wages resulting from lower cost of premiums (due itself to employers switching from high-cost plans to avoid the excise tax, and from federal subsidies made available to low-to-moderate-income employees). Query whether employers will actually do this, or just pocket these savings instead.
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