The election results do not change the prospects for major Social Security legislation. There is virtually no chance of that happening in the next two years. We will see if Republicans in the House of Representatives want to do something less major. Nothing comes to mind. Republicans keep talking about Social Security going broke but are seldom interested in more mundane Social Security matters.
The more likely effect of the election is to give Social Security a real appropriations headache. House Republicans have promised to roll back appropriations to the 2008 levels. Social Security would be devastated by that. Thousands of employees would be furloughed. It would be hard to keep the doors open. Fortunately, rolling back appropriations to 2008 levels might pass the House of Representatives but could not possibly pass the Senate much less be signed by the President.
Some Republicans have declared that they are willing to shut down the government by refusing to act on appropriations if they do not get their way on appropriations. That did not work so well for Republicans when they tried it in 1995. I would be surprised if they try it again. However, Republicans have also promised to block appropriations for implementation of health care reform. Social Security's appropriation is part of the Labor-HHS appropriation bill so it could be caught up in this fight. Republicans may be somewhat less unlikely to shut down some agencies in an attempt to make it impossible to implement health care reform. A shutdown even for a few days would be awful.
If there is no governmental shutdown there are two possibilities. Either an appropriations bill that includes Social Security will be passed that the President will sign or Social Security will be on a continuing funding resolution for the entire fiscal year (FY), perhaps for two entire FYs. Under a continuing resolution (CR) the agency would continue to operate but would be limited to fiscal year 2010 budget levels.
A CR is not that bad for most agencies. Appropriations have gone up substantially since FY 2008. There is little or no inflation. Most agencies can get by fairly well on their FY 2010 appropriation. Social Security is not most agencies. Social Security's workloads are going up substantially, primarily due to the aging of the baby boom population. Social Security needs and deserves more money to deal with increased workloads.
At best, there will be a prolonged struggle over FY 2011 appropriations, leaving Social Security operating on a CR for many months into the future. There is a good chance that Social Security will be operating on a CR for two years. This may cause major problems at Social Security. We will see if Republicans are indifferent to these problems.
The more likely effect of the election is to give Social Security a real appropriations headache. House Republicans have promised to roll back appropriations to the 2008 levels. Social Security would be devastated by that. Thousands of employees would be furloughed. It would be hard to keep the doors open. Fortunately, rolling back appropriations to 2008 levels might pass the House of Representatives but could not possibly pass the Senate much less be signed by the President.
Some Republicans have declared that they are willing to shut down the government by refusing to act on appropriations if they do not get their way on appropriations. That did not work so well for Republicans when they tried it in 1995. I would be surprised if they try it again. However, Republicans have also promised to block appropriations for implementation of health care reform. Social Security's appropriation is part of the Labor-HHS appropriation bill so it could be caught up in this fight. Republicans may be somewhat less unlikely to shut down some agencies in an attempt to make it impossible to implement health care reform. A shutdown even for a few days would be awful.
If there is no governmental shutdown there are two possibilities. Either an appropriations bill that includes Social Security will be passed that the President will sign or Social Security will be on a continuing funding resolution for the entire fiscal year (FY), perhaps for two entire FYs. Under a continuing resolution (CR) the agency would continue to operate but would be limited to fiscal year 2010 budget levels.
A CR is not that bad for most agencies. Appropriations have gone up substantially since FY 2008. There is little or no inflation. Most agencies can get by fairly well on their FY 2010 appropriation. Social Security is not most agencies. Social Security's workloads are going up substantially, primarily due to the aging of the baby boom population. Social Security needs and deserves more money to deal with increased workloads.
At best, there will be a prolonged struggle over FY 2011 appropriations, leaving Social Security operating on a CR for many months into the future. There is a good chance that Social Security will be operating on a CR for two years. This may cause major problems at Social Security. We will see if Republicans are indifferent to these problems.
Where Do The Election Results Leave Social Security?
ReplyDeleteMore complaining perhaps by those who elected the republicans.
Broadly, the results of this election will soon become clear: more for the rich and even less for the poor.
ReplyDeleteWell said, anon 2. The only thing Republicans really care about (especially the elected ones) is getting richer and staying there. They will gladly dance on the backs of the disabled to pinch a few more pennies for their own pockets.
ReplyDeleteThe only thing Democrats really care about is taking money from people that are working and giving it to people that aren't.
ReplyDeleteThe amount of manpower spent on non-claims related activity is amazing, but very little of it is done because someone had some idea and wanted to spend time doing it. No, most of it is required by law and there is a tremendous amount of staff resources spent on HR reports, open government, budget reports, dealing with audits, security, doing financial reports, complying with budget requirements and more and much of it is mandatory.
ReplyDeleteFolks who work in the claims area may be frustrated, but there is usually some sense of doing something of value. You haven't experienced frustration until you've had to do stupid things simply because some moke in OMB had a bright idea for a report that killed a workyear and was never seen again. Lot of value and job satisfaction in that. (not)