Final 2014 Numbers On Disability Insurance Trust Fund: What Do They Portend?

Disability Insurance Trust Fund, 1957-2014
[In millions]

			Assets
Calendar year	Total receipts	Total expenditures	Net increase during year	Assets at end of year
1957	$709	$59	$649	$649
1958	991	261	729	1,379
1959	931	485	447	1,825
1960	1,063	600	464	2,289
1961	1,104	956	148	2,437
1962	1,114	1,183	-69	2,368
1963	1,165	1,297	-133	2,235
1964	1,218	1,407	-188	2,047
1965	1,247	1,687	-440	1,606
1966	2,079	1,947	133	1,739
1967	2,379	2,089	290	2,029
1968	3,454	2,458	996	3,025
1969	3,792	2,716	1,075	4,100
1970	4,774	3,259	1,514	5,614
1971	5,031	4,000	1,031	6,645
1972	5,572	4,759	813	7,457
1973	6,443	5,973	470	7,927
1974	7,378	7,196	182	8,109
1975	8,035	8,790	-754	7,354
1976	8,757	10,366	-1,609	5,745
1977	9,570	11,945	-2,375	3,370
1978	13,810	12,954	856	4,226
1979	15,590	14,186	1,404	5,630
1980	13,871	15,872	-2,001	3,629
1981	17,078	17,658	-580	3,049
1982	22,715	17,992	-358	2,691
1983	20,682	18,177	2,505	5,195
1984	17,309	18,546	-1,237	3,959
1985	19,301	19,478	2,363	6,321
1986	19,439	20,522	1,459	7,780
1987	20,303	21,425	-1,122	6,658
1988	22,699	22,494	206	6,864
1989	24,795	23,753	1,041	7,905
1990	28,791	25,616	3,174	11,079
1991	30,390	28,571	1,819	12,898
1992	31,430	32,004	-574	12,324
1993	32,301	35,662	-3,361	8,963
1994	52,841	38,879	13,962	22,925
1995	56,696	42,055	14,641	37,566
1996	60,710	45,351	15,359	52,924
1997	60,499	47,034	13,465	66,389
1998	64,357	49,931	14,425	80,815
1999	69,541	53,035	16,507	97,321
2000	77,920	56,782	21,138	118,459
2001	83,903	61,369	22,534	140,993
2002	87,379	67,905	19,475	160,468
2003	88,074	73,108	14,966	175,434
2004	91,380	80,597	10,783	186,217
2005	97,423	88,018	9,405	195,623
2006	102,641	94,456	8,185	203,808
2007	109,854	98,778	11,076	214,884
2008	109,840	108,951	889	215,773
2009	109,283	121,506	-12,223	203,550
2010	104,017	127,660	-23,643	179,907
2011	106,276	132,332	-26,056	153,850
2012	109,115	140,299	-31,184	122,666
2013	111,228	143,450	-32,221	90,445
2014	114,858	145,060	-30,201	60,244

     The crucial question is what happens in the next two years. There was modest improvement in  the rate at which the Disability Trust Fund went down in 2014 over 2013. Was it just a blip or a sign of things to come. The number actually drawing Disability Insurance Benefits stabilized in 2014 and was heading down in the last three months of the year. Was 2014 an inflection point? If so, how much of an inflection point?