Dustin Pugel at KY Policy Blog has responded to the recent arguments from the Kentucky Disability Determination Service director about the increase in the number of Kentuckians drawing Social Security disability benefits. Here's a long excerpt:
While some argue the considerable increase in DI beneficiaries in Kentucky is the result of a deficient culture that doesn’t value work, the data does not support this. The rise in DI beneficiaries in Kentucky — from 148,375 in 2000 to 203,471 in 2016 — might seem alarming, but it is actually closely related to demographic factors, including the aging of the large baby boomer population and the increase in the number of women in the workforce who have the paid work history to qualify for DI.
Older workers are simply more likely to become disabled, and there has been growth in the number of older workers as the baby boomers aged. The likelihood that a worker will collect DI doubles between ages 30 and 40, 40 and 50, and ages 50 and 60. In Kentucky, 76 percent of DI beneficiaries are between 50 and 64 years old.
Kentucky, like the nation as a whole, has been undergoing a swell of population in that age group as the youngest baby boomers began to turn 50 in the late 1990s.
This also means, however, that we should expect the number of DI beneficiaries to decline as more boomers reach full retirement age – and out of eligibility for DI. And that is exactly what has been happening.
- As a share of the state’s population, those 50-64, has increased 49 percent, from 13.6 percent in 1990 to 20.2 percent in 2016.
- The number of 50-64 year old Kentuckians has increased 79 percent, from 501,679 in 1990 to 896,268 in 2016
After rising for a number of years, DI enrollment in Kentucky has dropped every year since 2013.
Women have also become a larger share of the workforce and subsequently, a larger share have been paying into Social Security and begun to qualify for DI. This is why women have accounted for much of Kentucky’s growth in DI beneficiaries. In fact the number of men receiving DI in Kentucky grew 41 percent between 2000 and 2016, but women with DI benefits nearly doubled, at 95 percent.
Some point to Kentucky’s high number of DI beneficiaries compared to other states as a reason for concern. However, most of the variation among states can be largely explained by four factors: a less educated workforce, an older workforce, fewer immigrants (as most immigrants do not qualify for DI) and an industry-based economy (including mining) that involves more physical wear and tear. Kentucky ranks high in these categories compared to other states:
- 5 percent of Kentuckians aged 25 or older completed at least a high school degree (3rd worst in the U.S.).
- The median age in Kentucky is 38.5 years old (18th oldest in the U.S.).
- Only 3.1 percent of Kentuckians are foreign-born (6th lowest in the U.S.).
- 4 percent of Kentuckians work a blue collar job (14th highest in the U.S.).
Completely in line with what Chief Actuary Goss has been saying for years.
ReplyDeleteIts demographics, not Democrats, fueling the rise.
But in post-fact America, no one cares.
Medical conditions that qualify for DI include cancer, kidney failure, congestive heart failure, crippling injuries and severe mental disorders. These are massively disruptive to everyday life, let alone a career. In fact, before being approved for disability, the percent of applicants performing meaningful work activity declines for years and few disabled workers are able to go back to work whether or not they were approved for benefits.
ReplyDeleteTo all the a$$whipes that say, "Well, what should the approval rates be?" when given evidence that ALJ approval rates are too low, inconsistent, and not in line with facts of the case... The answer is getting it right all the time. 100%. If ALJs choose to highlight statements in the record, such as "Patient was able to move arms above the head," as "evidence" of non-disability of shoulders... due to arthritis... Either they have no concept of arthritis and the way doctors write their notes or they are just "justifying" the decision they wanted to make. Either way, they are unfit to make a ruling on such "logic." But, then again, in the Tom Brady case, a federal judge didn't seem to understand that the cell phone was immaterial to the case and that the NFL's admission that they had "no direct evidence" was. Basically, the judges ruled "Goodell can do whatever the He££ he wants!" I have lost all confidence in the justice system in this country. Not jurors, judges. When a court can make a decision based upon their philosophy and not facts... When denying anyone you can "justify" becomes more important than doing what is "right." John Roberts bent himself into a pretzel to find a "tax" in Obamacare. However, the Constitution states that "All Bills for raising Revenue shall originate in the House of Representatives (Article I, section 7, clause 1). Either way, the law was Unconstitutional! Yet, mostly the same judges find a way to find marriage laws as Unconstitutional. Basically in Obergefell, Justice Kennedy decided to do whatever the He££ he wanted. The Appeals Council's "agreement" rates seem more based upon protecting the ALJs, not claimants. Basically ALJs have been endorsed to do "whatever the He££ they want."
What is interesting is that while some judges have been given or have taken more power, legislatures have tied the hands of other judges. Cities got tired of judges who gave breaks to people for traffic violations. Unless they are "undocumented." So, an illegal alien runs a red light and hits a car... He is allowed to leave and is not deported. He had no insurance, so the other driver is hosed. He was not ticketed, because the city doesn't want to cooperate with ICE. She was 2 days late making her insurance payment, so she was issued an $800 fine. The judge csays he "has" to make her pay the money, because technically, she was guilty. Why was she late... Because her food stamps were cut! And people wonder why Trump was elected? (Lack of faith in either party!)
It's a hard, hard life for most in the mountains. Most jobs are strenuous. Many are dangerous without ample employee protection. Women do many jobs besides the one they get paid for. Adult day care for ailing family members is a fairy tale most places. So, many have to quit working to help more at home. You work long enough you get so disabled you have to take care of your own needs instead of those of others. Good health care is usually far away in an area where many are to poor to drive. Wages have never been adequate for most to take better care of themselves. Think P.R. now and that's awfully close to what our mountain people have had to deal with for a long time. That's my home. Even my education, jobs and family could not help me stay out of poverty and off disability after decades of Lupus.
ReplyDeleteSome of your numbers are off. It should read:
ReplyDelete84.5 percent of Kentuckians aged 25 or older completed at least a high school degree (3rd worst in the U.S.).
The median age in Kentucky is 38.5 years old (18th oldest in the U.S.)
Only 3.1 percent of Kentuckians are foreign-born (6th lowest in the U.S.).
16.4 percent of Kentuckians work a blue collar job (14th highest in the U.S.).
Big difference between 84.5 and 5 % high school completion rate!
Poor economic opportunities in rural areas, combined with poor dietary and health choices (e.g., drugs, alcohol, and tobacco), lead to work related impairments. Duh!
ReplyDelete