From the New York Times:
A seemingly inexorable economic trend has changed direction in the past few years, as people who cited health reasons for not working are returning to the labor force.
The rise in the number of Americans not working because of disability was so persistent for two decades that some economists began to hypothesize that the trend would never reverse.
But perhaps it has. Since a peak almost four years ago, that number has steadily fallen, showing its largest decline — both in terms of head count and percentage — in at least the last 25 years. ...
The data shows that the decline has come almost entirely from the older half of the prime-age population (that is, people between 40 and 54). The drop has also been steeper among the less educated. The number of disabled nonparticipants without a high school diploma fell by 18 percent, versus 4 percent for those with at least a high school diploma. It has been somewhat larger among women (minus 9 percent) than men (minus 6 percent). ...One thing to keep in mind is that there are many people who believe themselves to be disabled by illness or injury who are not on Social Security disability benefits. Whatever has been going on probably has little or no connection to program developments at Social Security. There have been changes at Social Security over time but the only dramatic changes have been in backlogs.
I don't know. An over 25% drop in applications in 2017 since the peak in '09-'10 seems a little dramatic as well.
ReplyDeleteIt would be very nice if we could get back to a more moderate approach and accept that every society will have some disabled people in it that cannot engage in competitive employment and should be treated reasonably and humanely. Our society seems to need stigma in so many ways as a bullying device. I simply do not accept that someone cheating there way to the top on wall street is morally superior to a disabled person. One is also being wildly overcompensated also. We have so far to go however. I know of an ALJ who when dealing with mental health cases always asked, "do you need to be locked away? Do I need to be afraid of you?" Sad!
ReplyDeleteWhat?!? People with chronic health conditions are working???!!!?? Criminal!!!
ReplyDelete11:27 in the real world I have many hard working people with chronic health conditions that have been putting off this dreadful process for ten years trying to hold on. I had a very nice man with diabetis who has waited years. I watched him leave my building and it took him 15 minutes to walk across the street to his car. Three days later he went to an ER and was admitted inpatient. I also have people who blow past their DLI's because they they hold out false hope of returning to work. You misjudge the strong work ethic of most of the American people my friend! Who the hell wants to go through several years of starvation to get a disability check if they don't have to. Quite frankly you are full of beans.
ReplyDeleteWaiting past one's DLI to file makes it so much harder to get approved. It's a bit like trying to solve a crime many years afterwards. Some doctors may no longer have the records, some may have retired or moved, etc. SSA disability is in place to replace lost income. If someone did work for many years and now has been out of work for say 10 years, what income is SSA supposed to be replacing? Somehow they managed to live 10 years w/o any income.
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ReplyDeleteThe times I've seen it, it's typically been a divorce that has prompted a spouse to file after a DLI. A few times people lived with a family member for several years and provided FT care for an elderly or disabled person while living off their benefits or other familial support, and the death of that person triggers the filing. Sometimes it's prison. There are a number of other reasons as well, but divorce seems to be the biggest prompt.
This has more to do with population trends than anything else. At 54, you are excluding almost all of the baby boomers. Most of that range, and especially ages 40-54 is of generation x, which had a huge dropoff in birth rates. This is the trend you would expect if the percentages were the same. Likewise for the drop in applications. In 12-13 years, the baby boomers will all be in the retirement program and the number on SSDI/SSI should bottom out, only to boomerang when the Millennials start reaching 50.
ReplyDeleteThis has to do with an improved economy and people going back to work.
ReplyDeleteThe first chart is sheer numbers, which can be explained by the end of the baby boom. It is clearly about population trends. The graph on percentages of self-described "disabled" shows a return to "normal" rates and is attributed to the improved economy. However, the author is at least suggesting the "numbers" is being lowered by the return to "normal" of the percentages. But, the sheer "number" decrease is almost entirely due to population trends. In other words, the "numbers" are aging out of the chart range (40-54) and out of SSDI/SSI and into the retirement program. Another explanation for return of "disabled" to work might be the backlogs for a hearing and the approval rates. People find out how hard it has become for those "worse than them" to get benefits and it motivates them to try to "hang in there" a little longer, if they can. I know in my case that knowing how long this process would take would really have made no difference. I pushed it off as long as I possibly could have.
ReplyDelete10,000 people a day turn 65 until around 2030, so your numbers are not quite correct yet, they are working.
ReplyDelete@ 408pm If someone is told it takes three years to get paid and they opt to return to work instead of filing, they probably wouldn't have been approved anyway. It should be that the person has no choice but to file for disability. If they can work, then they shouldn't be receiving disability.
ReplyDeleteYou know, it doesn't have to be one or the other in terms of people aging out of disability programs or people having much more success with obtaining employment. It can be both, which it likely is. People turning 54 this year were born in the last year of the baby boomers, with anyone born before 1955 hitting 62.5 years of age. The unemployment rate has steadily dropped over the last 7-8 years as well. Both have likely contributed to the drop in applications over that same period of time.
ReplyDeleteThe belief that there isn't a large chunk of the applicants that apply because they cannot find work is as well founded as believing that there isn't a large chunk of the applicant pool that cannot sustain employment. Both are true.
The key here is self-described as "disabled." I had epilepsy from the age of 11. There was a time that if you put that on an application, you would not get a return call. Unless the company was desperate to find workers, like it was in 1984 Austin, Texas. Even after the Americans with Disabilities Act, it was was still difficult sometimes to find work. I also had Ankylosing Spondylitis from age 17, but took 11 years to be diagnosed. In addition to constant back pain, I soon developed shoulder, hand and knee pain, which have all intensified. A rheumatologist recommended I apply for SSDI in 2012, but I wasn't ready to do that. I missed 9 months of work, returned for a few months, was off for 6 months, then returned for a few more. It was only when the hand pain got so bad that I decided to apply. But, my ability to work had wained so much that those final few months were hardly fair to my employer. I simply wasn't capable of doing the work, even at a greatly reduced level.
ReplyDeleteThis report does not suggest that people like me (2012-present) today are returning to work. It is suggesting that people like me (before 2011) are returning to work. However, the graph at the top includes both those who have returned to work while excluding those who have aged out of the classification. Births in the USA topped out at 4.3 million in 1957, leveled off to about 4 million in 1964, fell to 3.5 million in 1967, plunged to 3.1 million in 1973 and didn't start ticking upwards until 1977. It went over 4 million in 1989-1993. So, there are fewer people in the 40-54 range today.
They were not disabled and went back to work, they had a chronic health condition, things got tight, they tried or thought about it, now things are better, and they are working with the exact same condition, funny how that works.
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