If you believe that the number of Social Security disability claims filed is a function of the unemployment rate shouldn't you be expecting a tsunami of disability claims right now as the unemployment rate soars, perhaps to greater than 20%? If you're the Commissioner of Social Security shouldn't you be urgently seeking a huge special appropriation to deal with this?
By the way, at least at my firm, the number of phone calls from new prospective clients isn't going up since Covid-19 exploded. The number is actually down.
By the way, at least at my firm, the number of phone calls from new prospective clients isn't going up since Covid-19 exploded. The number is actually down.
Here in Ohio, our phones have been mainly quiet despite a huge rise in unemployment claims last week and a Stay at Home order now in effect. New claims will be difficult without the ability to seek basic medical care and the cancelling of all consultative exams by the DDS.
ReplyDeleteWe had a new disability case call yesterday from someone who was laid off due to the pandemic. She clearly will qualify for disability benefits (assuming her medical records match what she reports). I don't know for sure, but I suspect many people are thinking this unemployment/economy crash is very temporary and they will go back to their normal work-life soon. It doesn't seem like people are thinking long-term yet. It takes a lot mentally to decide you are too sick/injured/impaired to work.
ReplyDeleteBut when unemployment is largely caused by the employer shutting down (or reducing hours drastically), those laid off are hoping to go back to work & they know they are able to work. So won't file a disability claim.
ReplyDeleteI think it would be irresponsible to try and draw any conclusions at this time. The economic impact of this crisis didn't begin in earnest until just over a week ago, and, frankly, people have more pressing concerns to deal with, and more immediate avenues for relief to pursue at the moment. Additionally, a lot of those who've lost their jobs in recent weeks are in industries like food service and transportation, which tend to skew a bit on the younger side. However, if past economic recessions are in any way a reliable indicator of what to expect, I think an increase in claims is certainly plausible. Also, medical experts are saying that many patients who survive are left with permanently reduced lung function due to fibrosis. Not to mention that our President now seems determined to encourage people to return to "normal" life in a desperate attempt to rescue Wall Street, which seems destined to fail in the long term, and certain to exacerbate the health consequences. And he's being , egged on by people who are apparently incapable of seeing the difference between an average of 40,000 automobile related deaths per year on one hand, and the anticipated loss of 2% (or, very likely, much more) of our entire country's population within the same time frame absent extraordinary measures to "flatten the curve."
ReplyDeleteOur phones have also remained quiet. If one believes the hypothesis that disability claims go up during bad economic times, which I don't think has an extremely strong link, then it's logical to assume that individuals will first exhaust unemployment before filing for disability.
ReplyDeleteRight now people are sorting out what is next and dealing with state unemployment.
ReplyDeleteUnless you have a really poor paying job, disability is a bad economic decision if you can manage to work and your employer will accommodate your issues.
Let's see whether the people who were struggling to get their forty hours in but wanted to save their insurance and their retirement and they higher income get called back when businesses reopen. If they aren't recalled, then you will see claims increase.
I think there is some truth to a sustained unemployment period resulting in more claims, because employers may be willing to tolerate some reduced production of a disabled employee when economic times are good, providing accommodations in a sheltered work environment. Those workers largely don't believe they are disabled at first, based on their past experience, but after a few months they realize they actually can't sustain work without the prior employer's accommodations.
ReplyDeleteIn sum, yeah if unemployment remains high for more than a month or two, there will be a tsunami of claims, but not in the short-term.
It's tough to predict. Would think respiratory diseases would get worse. But those are hard to win just on their own.
ReplyDeleteFeel like the mental toll will be worse 1-2 years from now. After the recession in 2008, I had clients who got depressed and never really recovered. The physical toll will be bad. The mental toll will be worse.
Would also see employers finally being more lenient with people taking time off for being sick. VEs usually state no work if a hypo calls for 3 or more missed days per month. The new norm might be higher.
ReplyDeleteYou are that desperate to support your position now? I am totally disgusted.
ReplyDeleteCalls have been down, new intakes are down. Which makes sense, people are worried about meeting with others and have been instructed to stay home. People have more immediately pressing needs. Too soon to tell whether this will impact future disability claims. But, God willing, we just go back to normal.
ReplyDeleteI’d be far more worried about the hit the DI trust fund is gonna take from a fall in payroll taxes.
ReplyDeleteNot many new disability claims but several Medicare claims/Part B now that folks are laid off and no longer have insurance through work.
ReplyDelete