The Washington Post has an article out displaying a couple of charts that they say show that during the pandemic people have been retiring but deliberately delaying claiming Social Security retirement benefits. Here's one of the charts:
The thing about it is that there's been a similar decline in the number of SSI claims filed and there's no benefit whatsoever in delaying filing an SSI claim. One possibility is that office closures and the increased difficulty in reaching Social Security by telephone have caused people to delay filing claims out of frustration. People don't have to be deterred entirely or even for long to produce something like this graph. Just deter a certain percentage of claims for a month to three months and you end up with fewer claims filed for a time period. My experience is that few people are crafty about the date they file their retirement claim. That sort of behavior exists mostly in the minds of newspaper writers who are overly invested in the idea that simplistic economic theories explain human behavior. They don't factor in the service environment at Social Security.
"My experience is that few people are crafty about the date they file their retirement claim. That sort of behavior exists mostly in the minds of newspaper writers who are overly invested in the idea that simplistic economic theories explain human behavior."
ReplyDeleteThe entire field of science and to a great extent empirical social science exists in order to extirpate the phrase "in my experience" as meaningful in explaining how the world works.
It may be that service disruptions created this drip in retirement claims, but the way to tease that out is with data and careful statistical analysis.
The most important factor determining the number of retirement claims in a year is the size of the cohort becoming eligible for retirement. But consider the other blips on the chart. First, in 2001, we have the elimination of the retirement earnings test for those over full retirement age. People working at that age could now collect their full social security check so more people did. Simple behavioral economics. Second the large blip during the great recession. a lot of people of retirement age exited the workforce permanently, perhaps earlier than they anticipated. Again simple economics.
So maybe in the current environment, people are holding on to jobs longer. Maybe it is just the administrative environment. the evidence will bear out which (or if both) are correct).
Despite this blog's preoccupation (and apparent jealousy) about SSA workers working from home, , the Post article held there were different reasons for late filing of retirement claims, that have nothing to do with SSA telework.
ReplyDeleteAlso one must take into account the fact that many private industry firms are allowing their employees to work from home. Employees love telework and therefore many of them are delaying retirement for that very reason, so they can continue to telework. This is a major reason why there has been a drop in SSA retirement claim filing.
Has anyone yet made the connection that with more SSA employees working from home there's actually more employees on the phone? Any clue that once we all go back into the office there's going to be less employees answering the phone due to taking walk-ins? Anyone? Bueller?
ReplyDeleteHave to agree that there seem to be some other big possible reasons for the drop in SSI apps that don't have to do with SSA's customer service/service delivery.
ReplyDeleteLet's see. Not that long ago the US and State govts disbursed a whole lot of money to a whole lot of people, including the poorest among us. Certain monthly obligations like rent and student loan payments were paused for long periods for many. And now the job market on the low pay end of the spectrum in particular is I guess rebounding while finding it difficult to entice enough workers at their historically low pay rates. That kind of labor market sounds like a favorable one for many would-be SSI and other disability applicants/recipients, no? Labor market so tight on the low end that it is easier to find lower paying jobs and employers are beginning to tolerate more things (i.e., disabled or at least seriously limited employees).
I'm not saying that SSA's very real structural changes imposed by chronic understaffing underlying a major shift in everything due to COVID haven't contributed to fewer folks being served and ultimately filing SSI apps, I'm just saying that we are also experiencing the types of economic conditions that have in the past tended to allow more would-be disabled people and disability app filers to stay in the work force and not apply.
In any event, you won't have to worry about any deluges hurting OHO, at least (FOs/DOs and DDS is another story). OHO still remains staffed to handle a few hundreds of thousands more claims per year than it has on hand/is projected to receive in the near term (and remember, the Boomer cohort is pretty much entirely past age 62 now, and the Gen X, et al cohorts behind it are so much relatively smaller), even with an appreciable bump in the next year or so. Even with current decreased capacity due to COVID, OHO could handle literally a couple hundred thousand unexpected additional claims and get right back to 3xx,xxx pending an an APT under 300 days in a few short months.
yeah good point, 2:19. While there should be some callers turning into walk-ins cancelling each other out, it won't be a complete swap and even if it were, I imagine doing things in person is just slower, at least in terms of the time spent by SSA folks getting through the initial interaction with the member of the public. I suspect that when the doors open and the in-person flood gates open, the call-in wave isn't going to decrease much. To 2:19's question: and then what? (SSA better be hiring lots of folks in Operations land...)
ReplyDeleteIt is me, or does no one see a disconnect between this graph and the headline? The slope of the curve is higher in 2021 than 2020. That should lead to concluding more people take Social Security in 2021, not fewer.
ReplyDeleteSecondly, where is the pre-pandemic (i.e. 2019) section of the graph to allow a better comparison.
I do agree with other posters that the comparison should be with the number of eligible people, not previous year's numbers.
Since the Claimants wont have to call +4 and 5 times to clear up a problem that could have been handled in 15 minutes in office it should speed things up as proofs can be provided on the spot and not delay and LOST in the mail and the office.
ReplyDeleteI absolutely do not trust SSA right now with my original documents.