From Roll Call:
If Republicans take one or both chambers of Congress in November, don’t be surprised if shoring up Social Security’s finances becomes an area of bipartisan focus.
Pronouncements like that have been made before only to die on the next election campaign’s vine. But the spirit of compromise that animated discussions around last year’s bipartisan infrastructure package appears to be creeping into nascent talks about finally, really, this-time-we’re-not-joking doing something to stave off Social Security insolvency.
The prospects look brighter now in the Senate, where veterans of previous bipartisan “gangs” have begun talking about the need for fixes. ...
What are the chances that Democrats agree to benefit cuts? Nearly zero. What are the chances that Republicans agree to tax increases? Nearly zero. Spirit of compromise? Are you kidding? Nothing's going to happen until there's a gun to their heads.
I see no reason to think that Congress will do anything even when the gun is to Social Security's head (it won't be to their heads). The only purpose of Congress -- in the eyes of its individual members -- is to remain in office. Committing to any sort of action on Social Security is laden with political risk, and the potential political reward for any individual incumbent is a very long shot. This will still be true after the trust funds are depleted. It's like a smoker who is diagnosed with emphysema and concludes, well, there's no point to quitting now, and keeps smoking.
ReplyDeleteInaction by Congress would lead to an across the board 22% benefit cut to 100,000,000+ beneficiaries in 1/2034.
DeleteDo you really think incumbents facing re-election ten months later are going to let that happen?
Just as much nothing happens for SSA whether it is Democrats or Republicans in power.
ReplyDeleteEzra Klein writes about these concepts so well.
ReplyDeleteIn a narrowly split polarized two party system, why would you ever work with the other side to accomplish anything when you're mission is to prove the party in power is failing so that you will be placed back in power. Why would Republicans give Biden a win to sell to the public. They're never going to allow him to sell his moderate, bipartisan, compromise, experienced, behind the scenes negotiator narrative. Rather, its he's asleep and radical socialist, defund the police, open borders, critical race theory leftists are running the show and you needs to vote R for president in 24 to save America. As always, its the most important election of your lifetime.
If you wanted to be the manager and the owner of the company only had 2 choices to be manager, you or your boss the current manager, why would you help your boss accomplish anything making them look good?
In times of polarization, our 2 party system paralyzes government so it cannot accomplish anything. Developed countries with effective governments are polarized but they have parliamentary systems with many parties and coalition governments. In our system, you've got to have the Presidency, the House, and a 60 Senate votes to do anything and hope a partisan court doesn't stop you. It's why basically nothing changes here and voting barely matters.
The only thing happening if Republicans take one or both chambers of Congress in November is a government shutdown.
@10:09
ReplyDeleteIt pains me to say it, but historically dem administrations appear more hostile to claimants. I chalk it up to believing the hype from the other side of the aisle.
Umm.. there is over $2 trillion SSA trust fund, Social Security is fine.
ReplyDelete...until January 2033, at which point the trust fund will be exhausted and all 100,000,000+ Americans on Social Security will experience a 22% benefit reduction, as the agency will only be able to pay out what it takes in from the FICA tax.
DeleteFor those keeping track, January 2033 is less than 11 years away and it's going to take at least 2 of those years for Congress to hammer out a bipartisan reform to the Social Security Act.
Tick tock
Hi 10:45, this is 10:01. Good question, but yes, I absolutely believe incumbents facing re-election 10 months after a 22% benefit drop will let that happen. Incumbent Democrats will be happy to use the benefit drop to cudgel incumbent Republicans for allowing it to happen. Incumbent Republicans will use the benefit drop to cudgel incumbent Democrats for allowing it to happen. "See?" both sides will say. "See what happens when enough people don't vote for our side? The other party goes and breaks things. We need to stop them. They are very bad. Vote for me. Hey how about a donation?" Disaster = political catnip. Incidentally I think this let-things-break-and-campaign-on-the-outrage is a relatively recent phenomenon -- I'm old enough to remember when Congress actually did stuff occasionally. Now it's just reality TV.
ReplyDeleteNope, I don't foresee that happening, if for no other reason than the likelihood that elected officials will fear for their physical safety if they allow tens of millions of Americans' sole source of income be dramatically reduced.
DeleteThere are a lot of angry, desperate people out there who are armed to the teeth.