Social Security has published a "Research and Statistics Note" with the catchy title: Characteristics of Noninstitutionalized DI, SSI, and OASI Program Participants, 2016 Update. Here are a few items from the report concerning Disability Insurance Benefits recipients that that catch my eye:
- Male 49.8%
- Female 50.2%
- Black 20.6%
- Hispanic 11.3%
- Less that H.S. diploma 16.4%
- H.S. diploma or equivalent 41.9%
- Some college 29.9%
- Bachelor's degree or higher 11.7%
For comparison, women are 50.5% of the population so there's little proof of the "weaker vessel" theory in these numbers. Of course, workforce participation is lower among women than men.
Blacks are about 14% of the population. The excessive number of disabled people who are black is easily explained. Educational attainments for blacks in America on average are significantly lower than for whites. Low educational attainment is strongly associated with disability claims because those with low educational attainments generally work in more physically demanding jobs, which are harder to perform after a person starts experiencing serious health problems. Those with low educational attainments also are less adaptable to jobs with lower exertional demands than those with high educational attainments. In general, my experience is that there is a high degree of exaggeration of educational attainment. Blacks and whites alike fib a lot when it comes to their educational background. They get used to exaggerating in order to get jobs and avoid embarrassment and keep doing it when they apply for disability benefits. Thus, take all self-reported numbers on educational attainment with a grain of salt.
Hispanics are 18% of the U.S. workforce, so the percent who are on disability benefits seems low. I hypothesize that the U.S. Hispanic workforce is, on average, significantly younger than the U.S. workforce in general. Disability claims are far more common among among older people. Many Hispanic workers just haven't aged into their prime years for disability claims.
In general, note that, at most, about 12% of the population has a bachelor's degree. If you have a bachelor's degree, much less anything beyond that, realize that what you might be able to do despite physical impairments isn't necessarily what the average American can do, much less what someone who lacks a high school diploma can do. You can work in an office if you've got a bad knee. You won't be able to do that as a maintenance mechanic or landscaper and you'll have a tough time finding something else you can do with a bad knee if you have little education. Also, remember that educational attainments are somewhat associated with native intelligence. If you have a low educational attainment, you may be not so bright. That also limits adaptability. To give a dated reference (to a no longer respectable source), this is not Lake Woebegone. All the children are not above average. In fact, a significant percentage of children and adults are significantly below average, a fact that limits them in many ways.
For comparison per U Census for population as a while over age 25 in 2020
ReplyDeleteLess than HS 10%
High school 23%
Some College or AA Degree 29%
Bachelor or Greater 37%
Clearly, the less education correlates with increased disability probably due to more strenuous work and less skills,
https://www.census.gov/data/tables/2020/demo/educational-attainment/cps-detailed-tables.html
stay in school kids
ReplyDeleteI have no doubts that the gender numbers and educational level data are probably more or less correct (less the educational level fibbing), but I have no trust whatsoever in those race numbers being correct.
ReplyDeleteWhy? The agency collects gender data and educational level data at the claims level. It, however, doesn't collect actual race statistics for beneficiaries when taking a claim or doing a PE action.
So, the agency instead is applying some sort of handpicked statistical model to the data to guesstimate those numbers. And, when the agency is the one that picks the model, they end up determining the outcome (i.e. likely the one that mostly aligns with some worthless political goal).
SSA probably is reluctant to track racial data at the micro level for a few reasons, one of which I have to imagine is that the data coming out of OHO specifically might not be good.
ReplyDeleteSSA discontinued the publication of data by race for the SSI program after 2002 and for the OASDI program after 2009, presumably because of changes to SSA's process for assigning new Social Security numbers, or at least this was the official position.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.ssa.gov/policy/docs/rsnotes/rsn2016-01.html#:~:text=SSA%20discontinued%20the%20publication%20of,)%2C%20a%20process%20called%20enumeration.