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Jul 20, 2022

Covid Is No Mirage

    From David Weaver, writing for The Hill:

The Social Security Administration (SSA) just released beneficiary death information for 2021. Together with the data for 2020, it is clear the COVID-19 pandemic has had a devastating effect on the beneficiary population — and it is well past time for the federal government to take additional steps to protect individuals served by SSA’s programs.

SSA recorded nearly 5.6 million beneficiary deaths in the 2020-2021 period, an increase of about 840,000 over the number recorded for the 20182019 period. This represents about a 17.7 percent increase in deaths from one two-year period to the next. ...

Based on SSA data on deaths and number of beneficiaries, the average annual death rate in the two years before COVID-19 was 37.7 deaths per 1,000 beneficiaries. The corresponding rate for the 2020-2021 period was 43.2 deaths per 1,000 beneficiaries, representing a 14.4 percent increase in the death rate. ...


6 comments:

  1. It’s just like the common cold, so get back to work!

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  2. I wonder how many deaths were indirectly caused by COVID, through diversion of healthcare resources and general reduction in monitoring and care for other conditions. For example, a lot fewer people got screened for cancer during the pandemic, so you’d expect more cases that were not detected in time to be curable. Also, with less preventative care during the pandemic, it would be reasonable to expect some types of conditions (diabetes, etc.) could become uncontrolled and worsen.

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    1. Definitely a great question. I’m sure there will be a lot of analysis done on this though the true number will never be known. Future years will certainly have more deaths too due to delayed care. For what it’s worth, 2020 had 529k more deaths than 2019. We would expect a little bit more deaths in 2020 anyway due to the aging of the population. There were 16k more deaths in 2019 than 2018, for instance. Only 351k deaths in 2020 were coded as COVID caused but most experts think that’s a little low. IHME estimates about 450k from COVID in 2020, for instance. So, perhaps the best current estimate is around 65k in 2020 for your question (531k-16k-450k). But who knows? And what about 2021? That will be even harder to calculate.

      https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/databriefs/db427.htm

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  3. What? Ya mean all those fake cures didn't work? I'm SHOCKED!

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  4. @10:27am Good point. But, yet folks still won't get vaccinated and still won't wear masks. The dumbing down of society has never been more present than during this pandemic.

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  5. All the more reason to expand telework at SSA offices, to protect both SSA employees and the general public.

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