From the New York Times:
… The Bureau of Labor Statistics, which produces the monthly jobs data, will “suspend all operations” if Congress and the president fail to reach a deal to extend funding for the federal government before a Tuesday midnight deadline, according to a contingency plan released by the Department of Labor. Data releases scheduled during a government shutdown “will not be released,” and data collection for future reports will cease, the memo said. …
So, why does this matter for Social Security? The annual Cost of Living Adjustment (COLA) for Social Security would ordinarily be announced soon after the BLS report due this week. That will have to be delayed. We have until December for this, so there’s time. However, future COLAs could become unreliable due to the gap in BLS data collection. Is it even possible for them to ever catch up? Their staffing levels have also been cut. I don’t think BLS was affected like this in prior government shutdowns.
He‘s using the shutdown as a pretext to hide economic data so that he can plausibly claim he hasn’t done as much damage to the economy as we can all see.
ReplyDeleteThe gap in data collection won't affect COLAs because the COLA (by law!) is based on July/Aug/Sept data each year. October CPI data doesn't factor in at all. However, as Charles noted, the *announcement* of the COLA could be affected if the shutdown continues through October 15, which is when the CPI data/COLA announcement would otherwise happen. The same thing happened in 2013 - SSA's announcement didn't go out until Oct 30 that year.
ReplyDeleteThe government shutdown will throw important federal data-gathering activities for a loop, likely delaying Friday’s release of the hotly anticipated jobs report.
ReplyDeleteThe “employment situation” report, which shows the unemployment rate and number of new jobs created during the prior month, is a key gauge of economic health and is closely watched by investors and policymakers alike, especially as the labor market has been showing signs of cooling. A contingency plan released by the US Department of Labor on Monday noted that the Bureau of Labor Statistics would completely cease operations in a shutdown, meaning the report wouldn’t be published unless the shutdown is very short-lived.
The longer the shutdown stretches on, the bigger a deal it will be for those awaiting the data. September’s initial jobs data has already been collected and essentially just needs someone in the government to hit publish, Oxford Economics chief US economist Ryan Sweet told Yahoo Finance.