OIG Chief Counsel Files Personal Suit Alleging Defamation, Tortious Interference, and False Light Invasion Of Privacy

     Michelle Murray, Chief Counsel of Social Security's Office of Inspector General (OIG), has filed suit on her own behalf pro se (meaning she is representing herself) in federal court in Pennsylvania against Debbie Shaw (Supervisory Attorney at the Office of the Counsel for Investigations and Enforcement -- or OCIE -- at OIG), Joscelyn Funnie (Senior Executive at OCIE), Lisa Rein (a reporter at the Washington Post), WP Company (which owns the Washington Post -- identified in the complaint as "left-centered"), Faith Williams (Director of the Effective and Accountable Government Program at the Project on Government Oversight) and the Project on Government Oversight. The complaint alleges defamation, tortious interference, and false light invasion of privacy. My name is mentioned but not as a defendant.

    There's probably a better way I don't know about but if you want to download this complaint you'll have to wait until I approve your request. I'll approve every request but I can't do it instantly.

    I'll say that as a general matter this sort of suit is difficult to win. I'd also say that if you're going to bring this sort of action your hands better be squeaky clean.

    Query: Do Debbie Shaw and Joscelyn Funnie qualify for government legal representation? I'd think so but I don't know the rules on this sort of thing.

Happy Halloween

 

ERE Only Partially Functional

     Social Security's ERE system that attorneys use to access their clients' files is only partially functional this morning.

    Does this also affect Social Security's internal systems?

Children Being Raised By Their Grandparents Poorly Served By Social Security

     From How Can Social Security Children's Benefits Help Grandparents Raise Grandchildren?, by Liu, Siyan, and Laura D. Quinby of the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College:

In 2020, around two million grandparents were responsible for the basic needs of their grandchildren, with grandparent care concentrated in historically disadvantaged communities. Despite being particularly vulnerable to financial insecurity, most grandparents are ineligible for formal support -- such as subsidies for foster parents, housing assistance, and Social Security dependent child benefits -- because they raise their grandchildren outside of the foster care system. Using the Health and Retirement Study and American Community Survey, this study documents how grandparent caregivers differ from typical grandparents in terms of time and money spent on grandchildren, demographic characteristics, and economic resources. It then evaluates how their finances would improve if eligibility for child benefits were aligned with the more lenient tax criteria for claiming a dependent grandchild.

    Being "outside of the foster care system" is definitely a problem but the Social Security aspect of it is that if you're on retirement benefits from Social Security, only your minor children and adult children who became disabled before age 22 can obtain child's benefits on your account. Your grandchildren are only eligible for these child benefits under very limited circumstances. 

    The children could get benefits if the grandparents adopted them but the grandparents are generally scared to try. The problem is that usually the children come to live with their grandparents because the parents have serious problems with substance abuse, other mental illness or are abusive. The grandparents are scared to rock the boat with an adoption petition. The parents may take the children back to a disordered, dangerous environment.

    The Social Security Act could be altered to give children's benefits to grandchildren in the custody of their grandparents. A change along these lines would certainly be family friendly but at this point no Social Security legislation, whatever its merits, can pass Congress.

A Question

     I know that many would like to turn over disability determination to artificial intelligence but there’s no gold standard for disability determination so let’s start out a little simpler. Could artificial intelligence be trained to do windfall offset calculations at Social Security? They're the agency's bane. They eat up tons of employee time. I'm sure that everyone familiar with the problem knows that there ought to be some computer fix. The Social Security Administration has tried two different windfall offset software packages in the past. Both cost in the tens, if not hundreds, of millions of dollars and both failed spectacularly. Is AI different?

   

U.S. Retirement Systems Score Poorly

     From Michael Hiltzik writing for the Los Angeles Times:

Back in my school days, a “C” grade was a certification of rank mediocrity. That’s the right way to think about a recent scorecard on which the U.S. retirement system scored an inexcusably deficient C+.

That grade placed the U.S. behind Netherlands, Iceland and Israel (all A’s); and Australia, Belgium, Britain, Canada, Finland, Germany, Ireland, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, Sweden and Switzerland (all solid B’s or B+). If you’re looking for bragging rights, the U.S. came in about even with France.

The scores come to us from the business consulting firm Mercer, which ranked 47 national pension systems for its Global Pension Index on standards such as adequacy, sustainability (including the reliability of funding) and integrity (such as the regulation of private pension providers). ...

Among the particular shortcomings of the American system identified by the Mercer team is that it leaves too many workers out in the cold, including gig workers and lower-income blue-collar employees. ...

But if you’re hoping that things will improve for American retirees in the near future, the accession of Rep. Mike Johnson (R-La.) to the post of House speaker should give you pause. Johnson is a long-term advocate of cutting Social Security and Medicare benefits through changes such as raising the retirement and eligibility ages for the programs.

He also has advocated scrutinizing the cost of those programs through a “bipartisan debt commission” that inevitably would place them in the deficit-reduction cauldron along with other spending. After his rise to the speaker’s chair Wednesday, Johnson immediately promised to create this panel. ...

Brute Force Needed

    At yesterday's House Social Security Subcommittee hearing all of the members were struggling under the illusion that agency management could seriously address agency backlogs. I have my own ideas for what the agency could do but I'm not under the illusion that they would seriously address backlogs. More money is the only thing that will work; "brute force" as former Commissioner Astrue described it when the agency was in a backlog situation not as serious as the current one.

Hearing Scheduled For O'Malley Nomination

    The Senate Finance Committee has scheduled a hearing on the nomination of Martin O'Malley to become Commissioner of Social Security for 10:00 on November 2.

Congressional Hearing

     The written materials submitted by witnesses at today's House Social Security Subcommittee are now available online. They're mostly predictable and uninteresting to me. I didn't have the time to watch but please post your summary if you did.

It Never Stops

     There's an op ed in the New York  Times pushing for increasing Social Security's full retirement age. I think the authors never encounter anyone working at a job requiring standing all day other than employees at Starbucks. The people who clean their offices, repair their cars, care for their elderly relatives and mow their yards are invisible to them. They're under the illusion that everyone is like them and works in an office, which is not true. They don't realize that most people don't make it to full retirement age now and the major reason isn't laziness, but illness. People live longer but bad knees, bad backs, diabetes and many other health conditions still reduce people's ability to work at any job as they age. To say they can just apply for disability benefits is a "let them eat cake" solution. Do they have any idea how brutal Social Security's disability programs are?

    Politically, any further raise in full retirement age isn't going to fly, now or later. You can't win on this. Give it up.

Cutting Off SSI Disability Benefits At Age 18 Leads To Adverse Life Outcomes

    From The Impact Of Losing Childhood Supplemental Security Income Benefits On Long-Term Education and Health Outcomes by Priyanka Anand and Hansoo Ko, a study for the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College:

Many youth with disabilities rely on Supplemental Security Income (SSI) as an important source of income for their families, but they must go through a redetermination process at age 18 if they are to continue receiving those benefits into adulthood. Our project uses data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health (Add Health) to examine the long-term impact of losing child SSI upon turning 18, due to the 1996 welfare reform, on education and health outcomes. We compare the long-term outcomes of those who turned 18 just after August 1996 with those who turned 18 just before, given that the reform increased the strictness of medical reviews for 18-year-old beneficiaries. Because the respondents are in their 30s and 40s in the later waves of the survey, we also examine the health outcomes of their children.

The paper found that:

• Those who were likely to lose SSI at age 18 have fewer years of education and are less likely to attend college than those who were less likely to lose their benefits.
• There is suggestive evidence of worse health outcomes for the children of those who were likely to lose their SSI benefits at age 18.

The policy implications of the findings are:

• Discontinuing benefits at age 18 has a negative impact on the human capital attainment of child SSI beneficiaries, which may explain their lower long-term earnings relative to other disadvantaged populations.
• The negative impacts of discontinuing child SSI benefits may continue into the next generation.
• Moderate amounts of cash transfers to children of vulnerable families may lead to lasting positive impacts. ...
  

    Wouldn't it be possible to do these age 18 redeterminations in a less harsh way, even without a legislative change? Give at least a little weight to the prior finding of disability? Where the claimant was approved based upon a child Listing and that child Listing is almost identical to the adult Listing, create a presumption that the disability hasn't ended? The current process seems to me to be designed to be as harsh as possible. Can't Social Security do better?

EM On Musculoskeletal Disorders

     The Social Security Administration has issued an Emergency Message titled Additional Guidance for Evaluating Evidence in Cases Involving the Musculoskeletal Disorders Listings. It's designed to convey the news of the Temporary Final Rule on "close proximity of time" published recently in the Federal Register but it also addresses the need for assistive devices, such as a cane or walker or motorized wheelchair.

Senators Seek Answers On SSI Overpayments

     From a press release:

U.S. Senators Ron Wyden, D-Ore.[Chairman of the Senate Finance Committee, which has jurisdiction over Social Security], Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio [Chairman of the Finance Committee's Social Security Subcommittee], and Bob Casey, D-Pa., urged the Social Security Administration (SSA) to provide additional information on the scope and magnitude of Supplemental Security Income (SSI) beneficiaries who had their benefits suspended and were assessed an overpayment due to receiving Economic Impact Payments (EIPs)[a pandemic program]. ...

Between April 2020 and July 2021, these payments were disregarded as countable resources for 12 months for purposes of SSI eligibility. In August 2021, SSA announced that  EIPs would not be counted toward eligibility and payment amount for SSI purposes indefinitely. However, SSA suspended benefits and assessed overpayments to individuals receiving SSI benefits because of the stimulus payments.

Senator Wyden previously raised this concern with SSA in two separate hearings in 2021, and the agency responded stating they had updated its policy guidance for SSA staff.  However, recent reporting has shown that SSI beneficiaries continue to receive overpayment notices because of the EIPs. 

To understand the scope and magnitude of beneficiaries affected, and the actions SSA has taken to resolve such suspensions and overpayments, the senators asked the SSA Acting Commissioner to provide the following information:

1. The number of individuals who had their benefits reduced or suspended because of the EIPs during the following periods: 

a. March 2020 to July 2021; 

b. August 2021 to December 2022; and 

c. January 2023 to September 2023.

2. Of those individuals identified in Question 1:

a. The number of individuals whose benefits were reinstated without an appeals hearing.

b. The number of individuals whose benefits were reinstated due to an appeals hearing.

c. The number of individuals whose appeals are pending.

d. The number of individuals who appeals were denied.

3. A list of the agency’s past and ongoing actions to address people who received overpayment notices resulting from EIPs?

4. The number of claimants who were denied SSI benefits because of the EIPs.

5. Whether SSA has required each beneficiary impacted to file an appeal.

Borderline Disorder And Social Security Disability

     From Course And Predictors Of Social Security Disability Insurance In Patients With Borderline Personality Disorder Over 24 years Of Prospective Follow-up by Kramer, U., Temes, C.M., Frankenburg, F.R. et al:

Methods:

A total of 290 inpatients with BPD [Borderline Personality Disorder] were interviewed at baseline and 12 consecutive follow-up waves, each separated by two years, after index hospitalization. Included were also 72 inpatients with other personality disorders. Surviving patients were reinterviewed. A series of interviews and self-report measures were used to assess psychosocial functioning and treatment history, axis I and II disorders, and childhood/adult adversity. 

Results:

Results show that rates of SSDI [Social Security Disability Insurance] utilization were relatively stable over 24 years of follow-up (on average, 47.2% of the patients with BPD were on SSDI). Patients with BPD were three times more likely to be on SSDI than patients with other PDs. Patients with BPD displayed flexibility in their usage of SSDI. By 24 years, 46% of patients remitted, out of which 85% experienced recurrence and 50% of the patients had a new onset over time. In multivariate analyses, four variables were found to predict SSDI status in patients with BPD over time. These variables were: age 26 or older, lower IQ, severity of non-sexual childhood abuse, and presence of PTSD. ...

    There is one thing about this study that make me wonder. Hospitalization is uncommon for Borderline Disorder itself yet this study tracked patients who had been hospitalized. That would suggest that these patients either had unusually bad cases of Borderline Disorder or had other psychiatric diagnoses in addition to Borderline Disorder. I will say that sometimes those with Borderline Disorder are hospitalized by mistake because the behaviors of the patients involved suggested some other disorder such as Bipolar Disorder. There's certainly the intensity of symptoms with Borderline Disorder, just not that much risk of suicide or homicide, which, in general, is what gets you hospitalized for a psychiatric disorder these days.

    The fact that patients with Borderline Disorder were much more likely to be on Social Security disability benefits than those with other personality disorders is not surprising. To begin with, Social Security approves almost no one based upon a personality disorder alone. However, Borderline is one of the worst personality disorders you can have. If anyone is going to be approved on a personality disorder, it's likely to be someone with Borderline Disorder. Also, those with other really severe personality, disorders such as Antisocial Personality Disorder, are likely to spend a lot of time in prison. That's not the case with Borderline Disorder.

    Clients with Borderline Disorder are difficult for me to deal with but it's not just their relationships with lawyers. People with Borderline Disorder can't maintain relationships with anyone, including employers. That's the problem. The fact that less than 50% of those with Borderline Disorder are on Social Security disability benefits is proof of how hard it is to be approved for Social Security disability benefits. Very few of those with a Borderline Disorder diagnosis work more than intermittently. That's just a fact. If you have a disorder that prevents you from working on a regular basis, shouldn't you be approved for Social Security disability benefits?

User Fee Up To $117 In 2024

     The user fee, which amounts to a tax, on attorneys who represent Social Security claimants will be $117 per case for 2024.

Social Security Subcommittee Schedules New Hearing

      The House Social Security Subcommittee has scheduled a hearing on “One Million Claims and Growing: Improving Social Security’s Disability Adjudication Process” for October 26.

Yesterday's House Social Security Subcommittee Hearing

     Here's a media account of yesterday's House Social Security Subcommittee hearing on overpayments. As I expected, GOP members beat up on the Acting Commissioner, whose name they seemed unable to pronounce, probably because they'd never seen her before. When there's a problem, it's far easier to blame someone than to examine the root causes of the problem. Democratic members, of course, defended Kijakazi and expressed outrage over the agency's funding, among other things.

Nice Idea, But ...

     From an article by Jack Smalligan and Chantel Boyens of the Urban Institute in The Hill concerning Social Security overpayments and how to reduce them:

... [W]e proposed that the Social Security Administration adopt a prospective eligibility and certification process. Under this approach, the agency would review a beneficiary’s eligibility and benefit level periodically and certify the beneficiary’s benefit level for a fixed period of time. If a beneficiary’s income changed, their benefits would be revised when they were due for recertification — but the agency would not be able to claw back past payments. ...

This is not a radical proposal: It is how other safety net programs, such as SNAP, already work. This approach also aligns with the Social Security Administration’s own practice for redetermining benefits for disability beneficiaries when they experience a medical improvement that might decrease their need for benefits. ...

    I suppose this would be nice but I don't know where the manpower for doing all those Title II redeterminations would come from. Well-meaning people such the authors of this piece cannot grasp the depth of the staffing crisis at Social Security.

House Hearing On Overpayments Today

     The Social Security Subcommittee of the House Ways and Means Committee will hold a hearing at 2:00 this afternoon on Protecting Beneficiaries from the Harm of Improper Payments. Here's the witness list:

• Dr. Kilolo Kijakazi, Ph.D.
  Acting Commissioner, Social Security Administration (SSA)
• Ms. Tonya Eickman
  Program Audit Division Director, Social Security Administration Office of the Inspector General (OIG)
• Ms. Elizabeth Curda
  Director, Education, Workforce, and Income Security, U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO)

     If your focus is on protecting beneficiaries, wouldn't you want to hear from an affected beneficiary? Instead they're calling in witnesses from Social Security's Office of Inspector General and the Government Accountability Office, agencies which have inaccurately conflated overpayments with fraud and which have favored unremitting efforts to recover overpayments. No, it looks like the focus will be on beating up on Kijakazi. I'm not sure that in general there's that much to beat up Kijakzi on anyway but blaming her for the overpayment issues is wrong. This mess has been brewing for decades.

How Do You Provide Services In This Kind Of Environment?

     The Senate Special Committee on Aging held a hearing yesterday on Securing Social Security: Accessing Payments and Preserving the Program for Future Generations. The hearing was held in Phoenixville, PA. Here's an excerpt from the testimony of Jessica LaPointe, President of American Federation of Government Employees, AFL-CIO (AFGE) Council 220, the labor union that represents most Social Security employees. This chart shows employee attrition rates at selected Social Security field office in Pennsylvania:

     Remember, these field office positions require lots of training and experience.

OHO Operating Data

     A recently released report on operations at Social Security's Office of Hearings Operations (OHO):

Click on image to view full size

 

    Note that in Fiscal Year (FY) 2022 OHO had 283,134.40 overtime hours. In the recently concluded FY 2023 OHO had 458,437.69 overtime hours, an increase of 62%. That's extraordinary when you consider the needs of other part of the Social Security Administration. OHO is so much more visible to Congress than boring parts of Social Security such as the teleservice centers and payment centers.

CCD Comments On SSI iClaims

     The Coalition For Constituents With Disablities (CCD), the major umbrella organization of non-profits who help the disabled, has sent comments to the Social Security Administration on its plan to allow electronically filed claims for Supplemental Security Income. Here are a few excerpts:

.. We would like to express our general support for SSA’s efforts. For too long, there has been an unnecessary divide between SSI and SSDI claimants. SSDI claimants could complete their applications for benefits completely online, while SSI claimants were subjected to long wait times at Field Offices, or over the phone, to complete an application for benefits.

The process for applying for SSI is labyrinthine and confusing. Our members seeking SSI report often being met by well-meaning, but overworked employees prone to misunderstandings and mistakes. Further, SSI recipients are among the most at-risk members of society, and SSI benefits are often their families’ only source of cash available to pay for shelter and other necessities.  ...

The proposed request indicates that third-party assisters may use iClaim to apply for an applicant. It also indicates that after a third-party assister completes the application, the applicant will be required to either physically sign the application, or verbally attest to its contents telephonically. However, if a claimant is using the online system to provide this information, it seems unnecessary to require either a wet signature or verbal attestation by an employee. In our experience, claimants are still having difficulty receiving mail, particularly in poorer areas. Further, requiring SSA employees to call claimants also adds an extra, unnecessary burden on employees. SSA should explore allowing claimants to sign their application at a later time and complete an e-signature. ...

The proposed request notes that “iClaim uses dynamic pathing, which ensures claimants are only asked to complete the questions that are relevant to them.” In principle, this seems to be a positive development. We commend SSA’s goal of ensuring the application process is streamlined as much as possible. That said, SSA should make public how the dynamic pathing process will work. ...

Other People Have A Dream; He Had A Fake Bomb

      From WRDW in Augusta, GA:

The Richmond County Sheriff’s Office bomb squad and other officers were called to [the local Social Security field office]..

Once on scene, deputies were given a description of a man with a red jacket carrying a book bag.

The sheriff’s office identified Keyon Dickens, 38, of Blake Drive, as the suspect.

Deputies saw Dickens walking along the side of the building and ordered him to drop the book bag, the report states.

Officials say Dickens dropped the bag, was detained and walked over to the patrol vehicle.

According to the report from the sheriff’s office, deputies found a white paper towel on Dickens, that had “I have a bomb” written on it.

While the bomb squad responded, deputies say Dickens “requested if he was going to be on the news and that we should loosen his handcuffs so that he looks good for the news.” …

Social Security Subcommittee Schedules Hearing On Overpayments

      The House Social Security Subcommittee has scheduled a hearing for October 18 on “examining how the Social Security Administration can better identify improper payments before they occur and provide beneficiaries with adequate notice when they occur.”

This Year's COLA Is 3.2%

    As expected, this year's Cost Of Living Adjustment (COLA) is 3.2%.

Suspect In Custody After Suspicious Package Found At Georgia Field Office

     From WRDW/WAGT:

A suspect was taken into custody after a suspicious package was found at the Social Security Administration office [in Augusta, GA] on Tuesday, according to the Richmond County Sheriff’s Office. ...

 By 1 p.m., the bomb squad had cleared a suspicious package and a suspect had been taken into custody, according to authorities. ...

What’s Going On With Social Security’s Appropriations?

      Have you wondered about Social Security’s Fiscal Year 2024 appropriations situation? Wanted nonpartisan information?  The Library of Congress’s Congressional Information has you covered in its recently released report Social Security Administration (SSA): FY2024 Annual Limitation on Administrative Expenses (LAE) Appropriation: In Brief. They explain why it’s technically not an appropriation but an LAE. What the report doesn’t say is that the situation for Social Security and almost all other federal agencies is a mess because the Republican majority in the House of Representatives is in complete disarray.

Disability Insurance Income Saves Lives

     From Disability Insurance Income Saves Lives by Alexander Gelber, Timothy Moore, Zhuan Pei and Alexander Strand:

We show that higher payments from US Social Security Disability Insurance (DI) reduce mortality. Using administrative data on new DI beneficiaries, we exploit discontinuities in the benefit formula through a regression kink design. We estimate that $1,000 more in annual DI payments decreases the annual mortality rate of lower-income beneficiaries by approximately 0.18 to 0.35 percentage points, implying an elasticity of mortality with respect to DI income of around -0.6 to -1.0. We find no robust evidence of an effect of DI income on the mortality of higher-income beneficiaries. The mortality effects imply large welfare benefits of disability insurance.

Press Release On Overpayments

     A press release from the Acting Commissioner of Social Security:

The Social Security Administration has provided people with income security for over 80 years.  The agency takes seriously its responsibilities to ensure eligible individuals receive the benefits to which they are entitled and to safeguard the integrity of benefit programs to better serve its customers.  Agency employees work hard to pay the right person the right amount at the right time, and payment accuracy rates remain high.

Social Security pays $1.4 trillion in benefits to more than 71 million people each year.  While payment accuracy rates are high, overpayments do happen given the number of people the agency serves, the number of changes in their circumstances, and the complexity of the programs.

Only around 0.5 percent of Social Security payments are overpayments. For the Supplemental Security Income (SSI) program, overpayments also represent a small percentage of payments—about 8 percent—but are higher due to the complexity in administering statutory income and resource limits and asset evaluations.

“Despite our high accuracy rates, I am putting together a team to review our overpayment policies and procedures to further improve how we serve our customers,” said Kilolo Kijakazi, Acting Commissioner of Social Security. “I have designated a senior official to work out of the Office of the Commissioner to lead the team and report directly to me.”

There is misinformation in the media claiming that the Social Security Administration is attempting to collect $21 billion.  This figure was derived from the total amount of overpayments that have occurred over the history of the programs.  Each person’s situation is unique, and the agency handles overpayments on a case-by-case basis. In particular, if a person doesn’t agree that they’ve been overpaid, or believes the amount is incorrect, they can appeal.  If they believe they shouldn’t have to pay the money back, they can request that the agency waive collection of the overpayment.  There’s no time limit for filing a waiver.

The agency is continually improving how it serves the millions of people who depend on its programs, including by preventing overpayments and making it easier to navigate the recovery and waiver processes.

For instance, the agency just released its streamlined waiver request form that is easier to understand and less burdensome for people to request a debt recovery waiver.  It is also developing a new electronic payroll data exchange program that will automatically use wage information to adjust payment amounts when appropriate to prevent overpayments.  Additionally, the agency intends to publish a proposed rule to streamline processes and reduce burden so eligible individuals can more easily seek debt relief.

When overpayments do happen, the agency is required by law to adjust benefits or recover debts.  The law allows Social Security to waive recovery in some cases, which must be balanced with the agency’s stewardship responsibility to safeguard the integrity of benefit programs and the trust funds.

Social Security is committed to working with people if they seek to appeal or to explore potential repayment options and waivers when allowed by law.

For more information about the overpayment process, please see Overpayments Fact Sheet

.

Acting Commissioner Orders Reviews Of Overpayments

     From KFF Health News:

The federal agency that oversees Social Security announced Wednesday that it will review the way it handles “overpayments” — money it sends beneficiaries that it later determines they weren’t entitled to receive. 

The Social Security Administration made the announcement weeks after KFF Health News and Cox Media Group reported that the agency has been trying to reclaim billions of dollars from beneficiaries, including many poor, retired, and disabled people who have spent the money and are unable to repay it. 

“Despite our high accuracy rates, I am putting together a team to review our overpayment policies and procedures to further improve how we serve our customers,” Kilolo Kijakazi, acting commissioner of Social Security, said in a news release.

Kijakazi said she had chosen a “senior official” to lead the team and report directly to her.   …

     This issue will certainly come up when there’s a confirmation hearing for Martin O’Malley’s nomination for Commissioner.   I hope that’s coming up soon. 

Initial Processing Backlogs

     Social Security has released numbers showing the backlogs at the initial level on disability claims. This is from more than six months ago but I don't think there's been significant improvement since. The situation may be worse. The processing time is expressed in days. You can click on the images to view them full size.

Rising Income Inequality And Social Security

       From Marketwatch:

When Alan Greenspan and his committee supposedly “fixed” Social Security’s funding crisis in the early 1980s, the program was supposed to remain solvent well into the 2050s.

Instead, the trust fund is scheduled to run out of money in 2034 — decades ahead of schedule. What went wrong?

Stephen Goss, who has been the Social Security Administration’s chief actuary for more than 20 years, posed this question recently during a retirement conference hosted by the Harkin Institute. And his answer may surprise some people.

Sure, birthrates have collapsed from the heady days of the baby boom, he said, and that trend hasn’t helped. But it’s nothing new: The big fall started in 1965, nearly 20 years before the Greenspan Commission.

And yes, people are living longer than they used to. But that isn’t a surprise, he added —actually, the decline in mortality is pretty much in line with expectations. The forecasts have proven “remarkably accurate,” he said.

So what changed? In a word: inequality.

Goss argued that rising income inequality — with fast growth at the top and slow growth everywhere else — is the mystery ingredient that has thrown Social Security’s finances into turmoil earlier than planned. And the big change took place in the 17 years after the Greenspan Commission made its projection, from 1983 to 2000, he said.

During that time, incomes for the best-paid 6% of earners rose by 62% in real, inflation-adjusted terms, he said. For the other 94%, incomes rose by just 17%.

The net result was that the lion’s share of U.S. income growth was above the Social Security cap, and wasn’t subject to the program’s payroll taxes. The percentage of incomes subject to the program’s tax collapsed from around 90% in the early 1980s to barely 82% by the turn of the millennium. …

Does "Temporary Disability Insurance" Reduce Social Security Disability Claims?

     From Does Temporary Disability Insurance Reduce Older Workers’ Reliance On Social Security Disability Insurance? by Siyan Liu, Laura D. Quinby, and James Giles:

Temporary Disability Insurance (TDI) provides workers with wage replacement while they recover from a serious medical condition. Proponents of a national paid leave program argue that these benefits allow workers to adjust to health shocks and return to the workforce, reducing reliance on Social Security Disability Insurance (DI). Yet, TDI could also encourage DI application by providing income during the lengthy qualification period. This study uses the 1992-2020 Health and Retirement Study to evaluate how access to TDI benefits affects the likelihood that older workers end up on DI after a work-limiting health shock. Specifically, it compares the experience of workers in states with mandated TDI benefits to those living in states without such policies.

The paper found that:

TDI helps workers with severe impairments stay in the labor force.

Specifically, workers who develop severe disabilities are 26 percentage points more likely to be employed and 16 percentage points less likely to apply for DI when they have TDI benefits.

However, workers whose impairments do not qualify for DI may use TDI to facilitate early retirement. ...

Click on image to view full size

     I have serious problems with this study. First, the authors didn't realize that the generally used term isn't Temporary Disability Insurance but Short Term Disability which suggests that they didn't get very far into anything other than abstruse math, such as "𝑈𝑆=𝑈(𝑤𝑆(𝐻)+𝑦)+𝜑𝑆𝐻." Second, and far more important, the authors are comparing states like New York, California and Rhode Island with states like Iowa, Louisiana and Georgia. There are major demographic and economic differences between these states that likely explain most if not all the differences they're finding. You could easily produce a study demonstrating that disability claims are more common in areas where college football is highly popular but do you think that means that following college football causes disability claims?

    In general, I'm highly, highly skeptical of those who think they can manipulate sick people into working longer. That might or might not be in their best interests but I don't think it's possible anyway. The factors that go into producing disability claims such as illness often combined with adverse vocational factors such as age and lack of work skills can't be manipulated out of the way. Even if you can get people back to work it's usually only postponing the inevitable by a few months.