From The Effect Of US COVID-19 Excess Mortality On Social Security Outlays, a study by Hanke Heun-Johnson, Darius Lakdawalla, Julian Reif and Bryan Tysinger:
The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in significant excess mortality among the US population, impacting the future outlays of the US Social Security Administration (SSA) Old Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance (OASDI) program. This study aimed to estimate the net effects of pandemic-induced excess deaths on OASDI liabilities ... The pandemic resulted in approximately 1.7 million excess deaths among individuals aged 25 and older between 2020 and 2023. These premature deaths reduced future retirement payments, which increased the Social Security fund by $294 billion. However, this gain was offset by reductions in future payroll tax flows ($58 billion) and increased payments to surviving spouses and children ($32 billion), resulting in a net impact of $205 billion. ...
For better or worse, DOGE has probably ended this sort of research.
8 comments:
Take a win where ever you can get one.
Likely a bs study. How many died FROM Covid and not WITH Covid? That was such a crock.
We need research (funded by society) that is objective and fact finding, not just the propaganda that echoes the beauty of the "Emporer's New Clothes."
That's about the same amount they blew on repealing WEP/GPO.
And a voice from the nonsense gallery trying to discount the impact of COVID. Go spend time in the measles ward with RFK jr.
This research doesn't seem to consider pandemic-related disability claims, changes in revenues not related to people dying (for example, people becoming unemployed during shutdowns), changes in claiming decisions or immigration or fertility, etc. My recollection from the trustees' reports and actuaries' presentations is that covid, like the ACA, was pretty much a net zero to the trust funds because there were roughly equal aspects of it that accelerated depletion and aspects that hastened depletion.
Read the article: "pandemic-induced excess deaths". Using little words for you, that means "from" COVID.
@10:49
Excess deaths are excess deaths and excess deaths save money. Particularly the less of their working life, and more of their retired life, is left. You are free to question whether the excess deaths are acute to covid or coincided with covid, but it really is irrelevant to whether SSA's solvency is impacted.
@6:51
I have yet to see a claim relating strictly to the pandemic and changes in earnings, due to how benefits are calculated by averaging your top 30 years, would be pretty minimal. As to the SSA actuary report, yeah, they said it wouldn't have much of an effect on their forecasts as their forecasts presume periodic negative events already. But that was in 2021, and Covid was worse than the average presumed periodic negative events so if the actuary ever releases another report, I would be curious to hear what they have to say with the current data.
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