From the New York Times:
Until recently, economic researchers were cheering an encouraging trend: Older Americans were staying in the labor force longer and waiting longer to claim their Social Security benefits, aiming to enhance their financial stability in retirement. …
Economists had documented that Americans were both retiring later and claiming their benefits later — until last year, when “all hell broke loose,” said Alicia Munnell, former director of the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College. In an unprecedented surge, hundreds of thousands more people than usual suddenly filed for retirement benefits. …
From October 2024 to April 2025, [researchers] found, claims jumped by 267,000 compared with the previous year, a 13 percent surge. Typically, “the fluctuations were more in the 2 to 3 percent range,” [said a researcher]. …
In a 2021 study by the Boston College center, researchers showed more than 3,100 participants headlines about Social Security. One referred fairly neutrally to “a long-term financing shortfall,” while others used scarier phrases like “deplete its reserves” and “headed toward insolvency.” The accompanying short text stayed the same.
“With the headlines that were more fear-inducing, people tended to say they would claim earlier, about a year earlier,” than the control group reading the neutral headline, said Gal Wettstein, associate director of health and insurance at the center and the study co-author.
By 2025, this was no longer an academic experiment. Negative media coverage was “overwhelming,” he said. “People saw it every day.” …
A year later, claiming has reverted to more normal levels. From October 2025 to April 2026, new Social Security claims fell by 235,000, about a 10 percent drop. … The decline “effectively canceled out the surge.” …
3 comments:
I’ve had plenty of people say they were applying “before it’s gone” and citing the admin. Of course, this included people over the earnings test.
These additional early retirement claims, a disproportionate percentage of which are coming from relatively high earners, are going to lead to a lot more RET work for the field offices and PCs, including recalculations when people reach FRA. And a lot more improper payments when SSA doesn't adjust people's benefits in a timely manner and then has to go back and collect the overpayment. They will also lead to a lifetime of lower benefits for the folks who claimed early, who--unlike early claimers in years past--tend to have longer life expectancies. It's probably not a big enough effect to change the trust fund insolvency date more than a day or two, but it will be a big change for individual households.
The public is scared that cuts will happen here.
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