Open Forum: What Do The Election Results Mean For Social Security

At this writing, it is certainly looking as if Barack Obama will be the next President of the United States and that Democrats will have larger margins in the Senate and House of Representatives.

What do you think this means for Social Security? Share your views, opinions and guesses by commenting on this post.

Biggs In Wall Street Journal

Andrew Biggs, formerly the Deputy Commissioner of Social Security (on a recess appointment, after the Senate refused to consider his nomination) has a piece in today's Wall Street JournalWants Social Security To Be A Welfare Plan." claiming that "Obama Of course, in a larger sense Social Security has always been a "welfare plan" in the sense that it is intended to promote the welfare of the American people. The widespread belief that Social Security does promote the welfare of the American people is why the American people support Social Security, a point which Biggs has never understood.

Biggs' article, like everything else that I have read by him, is almost incomprehensible. His thesis, as best I can tell, is that because Barack Obama wants to cut income taxes on the poor and middle class while increasing the FICA tax on high income earners that somehow Social Security will become a dreaded "welfare program." As best I can tell, any increase in the progressivity of taxation in the United States is "welfare" to Biggs. I guess the word "Welfare" sounds more frightening to Biggs than "Socialism", the other term being thrown around by the McCain campaign to describe Obama's plan to increase progressivity of taxation. All Biggs is doing is coupling statistics of dubious relevance with a ridiculous argument and using a pejorative term to describe his opponent's plan.

Barack Obama On Social Security Disability

Barack Obama's website says that if elected he intends to create a National Commission on People with Disabilities, Employment and Social Security with the intention of:

• Examining and proposing solutions to work disincentives in the SSDI, SSI, Medicare, and Medicaid programs.
• Revisiting the Ticket to Work Act to assess how it can better provide SSDI and SSI beneficiaries with the supports they need to transition into work.
• Considering opportunities to improve the results produced through the relationships between the SSDI and SSI programs and the workforce investment and vocational rehabilitation systems.
• Examining the sufficiency of SSDI and SSI benefit levels in light of available work opportunities for working-age people with disabilities.
• Determining the sufficiency of the “substantial gainful activity” level in the SSDI program and whether it should be indexed to average hourly wages or some other measure.
• Studying programs that would help young people join the labor force rather than the SSI rolls.

He would also:

Streamline the Social Security Approval Process: The Social Security Administration (SSA) has been consistently under-funded, resulting in unconscionable delays in initial claims determinations and hearings for individuals applying for the Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI) and Social Security Supplement Security Income (SSI) programs. The SSA's disability claims backlog has reached a record high of 755,000, up from 311,000 in 2000. The average wait time for an appeals hearing averages 505 days and, in some cases, can exceed three years. Barack Obama and Joe Biden believe that it is unacceptable to have a system in which individuals lose their homes or are forced to declare bankruptcy because the federal government cannot process their claims quickly enough. Barack Obama and Joe Biden are committed to streamlining the current application and appeals procedures to reduce the confusion that surrounds these important programs. As president, Obama will also ensure that the SSA has the funding it needs to hire judges and staff and to invest in technology to expedite final decisions. Obama supported the $150 million increase in the SSA's budget that was vetoed by President Bush this year. As president, he will continue to work to ensure that the SSA has the resources it needs for hiring and to more effectively process its caseloads.

I will post on John McCain's positions on Social Security disability issues if anyone can find them for me. I have been unable to find them.

Social Security And Voter Registration Story Gets More Complicated

I had earlier commented that Michael Astrue's letter to state election officials about possible excessive use of Social Security's databases to confirm new voter registrations seemed to be a possible sign of voter suppression. It appears that voter suppression is going on, probably unintentional, but those letters were not part of it, but an indirect result of it. A New York Times article shows that the letters from Social Security were brought about by inquiries to Social Security from the New York Times, concerning state efforts to purge voting rolls. The Times article is confusing, but it is clear that we should all hope that this election is not close because there have been some dramatic and probably illegal purges of voting rolls. There may be some would-be voters getting a nasty surprise on election day.

SSA Now Involved In Voter Suppression Effort?

First, Social Security was unwilling to keep its database open over the Columbus Day weekend to help voter registration efforts. Now this press release from Social Security:

Michael J. Astrue, Commissioner of Social Security, on Friday contacted the Secretaries of State for Alabama, Georgia, Indiana, Nevada, North Carolina and Ohio and asked them, based on extraordinarily high levels of requests to SSA, to review their procedures to ensure that they are fully complying with applicable federal laws relating to the registration of voters. Under the Help America Vote Act of 2002, most States are required to verify the last four digits of the Social Security number of only those new people seeking to register to vote who do not possess a valid State driver’s license.

“It is absolutely essential that people entitled to register to vote are allowed to do so,” Commissioner Astrue stated. “While there may well be legitimate explanations for the high levels of requests, I am confident that the States we have contacted will review their procedures promptly to ensure that they are in full compliance with federal law.”

There have been many complaints from Democrats that the Republican party has been attempting to use the levers of government to make it more difficult to register new voters and to suppress Democratic turnout at the polls. Whether fair or not, this press release will be perceived to be part of that campaign. I think that issuing the press release was an extremely unwise move, especially if Michael Astrue has any ambition to continue serving as Social Security Commissioner if Banack Obama is elected President.

Update: A number of people are telling me that I am misreading this press release, that Social Security's only intent is to help voter registration personnel who may be unnecessarily verifying Social Security numbers. Yes, one can read this press release in that way and that is probably what was intended, but someone who really wanted to help voter registration officials might not have sent out a press release at all and certainly would not have sent out a press release which basically says "Why are you registering so many new voters? Are you doing something illegal?" Voter registration laws are not Social Security's area of expertise. Telling people whose area of expertise is voter registration that they do not know their jobs is arrogant. This is especially obnoxious when it is combined with a strong insinuation of illegal behavior. I think anyone reading the press release would have to think that whoever wrote it was dismayed by all the voter registration going on. This press release happened when Michael Astrue was confronted by criticism in a politically charged environment. Very few people were even aware of the criticism, but Astrue went ballistic in a press release. Now think what happens when Astrue is forced to work with a President, a Congress, a Deputy Commissioner and an Inspector General who are all members of the Democratic party. That is what happens if Barack Obama is elected and Astrue elects to serve out his term as Commissioner. Michael Astrue's personality is not suited to working with others who disagree with him and who distrust him. Throughtout his career he has been quick to acuse others of impropriety when they disagreed with him.

Database Shutdown Remains Controversial

From WFSB in Hartford, CT:

The Social Security Administration’s plan to just down its online systems could hinder 40 states in verifying voter registrations, Secretary of State Susan Bysiewicz said Thursday."

I urge Social Security Administration Commissioner Michael J. Astrue to reconsider the timing of the National Computer Center Annual Building Shutdown from Oct. 11 to 13, 2008," said Bysiewicz. "The shutdown will result in the inaccessibility of online system services just weeks before the Nov. 4 elections. More than 40 states across the country have voter registration deadlines in October, and where state law requires a match against the SSA database, thousands of citizens could be disenfranchised with the system down at such a critical time."

Social Security Denies That Computer Shutdown Will Affect Voter Registration

A press release from Social Security:

For over fifteen years the Social Security Administration has scheduled a shutdown of its National Computer Center on Columbus Day weekend for repairs and maintenance; it has only been postponed once and that was due to special workloads created by Hurricane Katrina. The repair and maintenance is a major production for the agency's system and facility experts that involves scheduling of overtime for key staff, committing contractors to extremely tight turnaround times for the work, and other complexities. As the antiquated National Computer Center has frayed over the years, the importance of timely repairs and maintenance has increased significantly.

Among the many new responsibilities that Congress has added to Social Security's workloads is verifying a small percentage of voter registrations. This year there has been unwarranted concern that the annual shutdown will somehow interfere with voter registration. The system will be up and running until midnight Friday night, so there is plenty of time for voters registering Friday, October 10 to be verified. Voters registered on Saturday, October 11 or Sunday, October 12 can be verified starting Monday, October 13 at 5 a.m. EDT, more than three weeks before the election. When state and local election registrars are working on Columbus Day, Social Security systems will be available to verify registrations, and the agency will be providing its usual same-day service. The expected increased volume of transactions on Monday does not present a problem for prompt response.

Delaying the shutdown into 2009 would pose a small, but not insignificant, risk of a major interruption of service for the hundreds of millions of Americans who rely on our computer systems to provide retirement, disability and survivors benefits, Medicare benefits, employment verification and other services. We have recently indicated in our new strategic plan that Congress needs to support a new National Computer Center, which would help us provide services without interruption.

"As many Americans are enjoying Columbus Day weekend, the hardworking men and women of the Social Security Administration will be working intensely to satisfy every reasonable expectation of service, including voter registration verifications," Commissioner Astrue stated. "I regret that people unfamiliar with the facts of this situation have sought to create a partisan issue where there is none."

What I do not know is whether real time access is needed to verify voter registration. If real time access is not needed, I do not know why anyone ever made an issue of this. If real time access is needed, I do not know why Social Security sent out this press release. Update: I guess I can think of a reason why this would be worth making an issue over even if real time access is unnecessary. Elections offices may be receiving so many new voter registrations that they need to work a lot of overtime to get everyone on the books before election day. Being unable to work that weekend could be a real problem for them. By the way, notice the somewhat truculent tone of the press release. It sounds like Michael Astrue wrote it himself. Can someone with this attitude work with a Democrat in the White House, Democrats in stronger control of Congress, a Democrat as the #2 man at Social Security and a Democrat as his Inspector General? That is what Michael Astrue may face next year if the political trend we see now continues.

Voter Registration Questions Persist And Social Security Not Responding

Roll Call is reporting on the voter registration problems that may be caused by Social Security's scheduled computer shutdown over the Columbus Day weekend. The states are required tunder the feheral Help America Vote Act to crosscheck new voter registrations with Social Security's database. The maintenance is routine, but can still cause problems for election officials. Democrats, in particular, are making a concerted effort to register new voters for the upcoming election. Social Security did not respond to Roll Call's request to discuss the matter.

I hope that no one at Social Security has called the White House to ask what to do about this.

Election Assistance Commission Writes About Database Shutdown Issue

I had posted yesterday about Senator Feinstein's letter about the voter registration problems that will be caused if Social Security shuts down its Social Security number database for three days in October. The United States Election Assistance Commission has now written the Commissioner about the same issue.

Social Security And Voter Registration

Social Security is planning to take its Social Security number database offline for routine maintenance from October 10 to 13. This is a matter of concern to the California Secretary of State because California is using the database to verify voter registration. Apparently, eleven other states would be similarly affected. Senator Feinstein has written to the Commissioner of Social Security to ask that the maintenance be delayed until after voter registration closes.

McCain On Social Security

I recently posted an Obama ad criticizing John McCain on Social Security. I have not seen any corresponding McCain ad. Here are some McCain's statements on Social Security from On The Issues:

• John McCain supports supplementing the current Social Security system with personal accounts--but not as a substitute for addressing benefit promises that cannot be kept. John McCain will reach across the aisle, but if the Democrats do not act, he will. No problem is in more need of honesty than the looming financial challenges of entitlement programs. Americans have the right to know the truth and John McCain will not leave office without fixing the problems that threatens our future prosperity and power.
• Q: What about Social Security?

  A: Look, what Americans need is some straight talk. Every man, woman and child in America needs to know it's going broke, and we've got to do the hard things. We've got to fix it for the future generations of Americans. Don't we owe that to young Americans today? I say we do. It's got to be bipartisan. And you have to go to the American people and say we won't raise your taxes. We need personal savings accounts, but we got to fix this system.

• Q: Back in 2005, you said you could support an increase in Social Security taxes as part of a compromise. Do you stand by that?

  A: As part of a compromise, if you come up with a benefit, I can accept almost anything, but it's got to be part of a compromise. Am I for raising anybody's taxes? No, I am not. I am unalterably opposed to doing so. I will not support a tax increase; it's off the table, certainly, now.

I was unable to find anything about Social Security on the offical McCain website. It appears that Social Security is a subject that John McCain would rather not talk about.

Obama Plan For The Bureaucracy

Some excerpts from a blueprint for change in the bureaucracy issued by the Obama for President campaign:

• Move Workers from Bloated Bureaucracies to the Frontlines: In many areas of the federal government there is too much Washington bureaucracy – too many layers of managers, and too much paperwork that does not contribute directly to improving the lives of the American people. At the same time, there are too few workers on the front lines in local offices across the country. We need more resources and better tools for food inspectors at the Food and Drug Administration, for nurses at VA hospitals, for air traffic controllers and baggage screeners, and for immigration border control agents. Barack Obama will thin the ranks of Washington middle managers, freeing up resources both for deficit reduction and for increasing the number of frontline workers.
• Cut Federal Spending on Contractors by at Least 10 Percent: Barack Obama will reform federal contracting and reduce the number of contractors, saving $40 billion a year.
• End Abusive No-Bid Contracts and Minimize the Use of Cost-Plus Contracts: In 2006, the federal government spent $206.9 billion on contracts awarded without full and open competition, up from $67.5 billion in 2000. Barack Obama will require each federal agency to defend each of its noncompetitive contracts to the Office of Management and Budget. In addition, cost-plus contracts have increased more than 75 percent under the Bush administration. These contracts are vulnerable to waste because they provide no incentive to control costs. Obama will encourage the use of fixed-cost or incentive-based contracts and when cost-plus contracts are necessary, force agencies to use mitigating procedures like incentives tied to performance goals and cost savings.

Obama Ad On Social Security

John McCain On Social Security

McCain On Budget And Social Security

From Jobs for America: The McCain Economic Plan, put out by John McCain's campaign:

Comprehensive Spending Controls: John McCain will institute broad reforms to control spending:

• The McCain administration would reserve all savings from victory in the Iraq and Afghanistan operations in the fight against Islamic extremists for reducing the deficit. Since all their costs were financed with deficit spending, all their savings must go to deficit reduction.
• A one-year spending pause. Freeze non-defense, non-veterans discretionary spending for a year and use those savings for deficit reduction. A one-year pause in the growth of discretionary spending will be imposed to allow for a comprehensive review of all spending programs. After the completion of a comprehensive review of all programs, projects and activities of the federal government, we will propose a plan to modernize, streamline, consolidate, reprioritize and, where needed, terminate individual programs. ...
  

Reform Social Security: John McCain will fight to save the future of Social Security, and he believes that we may meet our obligations to the retirees of today and the future without raising taxes. John McCain supports supplementing the current Social Security system with personal accounts – but not as a substitute for addressing benefit promises that cannot be kept. John McCain will reach across the aisle to address these challenges, but if the Democrats do not act, he will. No problem is in more need of honesty than the looming financial challenges of entitlement programs. Americans have the right to know the truth and John McCain will not leave office without fixing the problems that threatens our future prosperity and power.

Obama Makes Social Security A Campaign Issue

From the Associated Press:

Democrat Barack Obama told seniors Sunday that Republican John McCain would threaten the Social Security that they and millions like them depend on because he supports privatizing the program. ...

"Let me be clear, privatizing Social Security was a bad idea when George W. Bush proposed it, it's a bad idea today," Obama said. "That's why I stood up against this plan in the Senate and that's why I won't stand for it as president." ...

Obama said McCain would push to raise the retirement age for collecting Social Security benefits or trim annual cost-of-living increases. Obama has rejected both ideas as solutions to the funding crisis projected for Social Security in favor of making higher-income workers pay more into the system.

"We have to protect Social Security for future generations without pushing the burden onto seniors who have earned the right to retire in dignity," he said.

Democrats And Social Security As A Campaign Issue

Josh Marshall writing for The Hill:

Even if President Bush and his Republican allies wanted to forget about Social Security privatization and pretend everything from last year never happened, it still tells you something about the Democrats’ political acumen and general unseriousness that so many of them are seemingly happy to let them send the whole topic right down the memory hole. ...

[Social Security] is, to put it mildly, a perfect wedge issue — a resonant political issue that Democratic candidates can hit on and hit on and that Republicans are afraid to touch. And of course there’s the extra benefit in that it’s actually an issue of great substance and importance to millions of people in their daily lives, unlike the flag-burning amendment, gay marriage, the campaign to shut down The New York Times and whatever other bogus election-season issues Hill Republicans plan to gin up over the next three months.

For too many Democrats, though, it’s just out of sight out, out of mind. If Republicans are done talking about it, that’s good enough for them.

McCain On Disability

From the Drudge Retort (this is the anti-Drudge site):

Sen. John McCain has long said he is in robust health and is strong enough to hike the Grand Canyon, but he also is receiving what his staff Monday termed a "disability pension" from the Navy. When McCain released his tax return for 2007 on Friday, he separately disclosed that he received a pension of $58,358 that was not listed as income on his return. On Monday, McCain's staff identified the retirement benefit as a "disability pension" and said that McCain "was retired as disabled because of his limited body movements due to injuries as a POW."

McCain, as I expect most people know, is also drawing his Social Security retirement benefits, since he is well above full retirement age.

Andrew Biggs Already Campaigning

Until his recent resignation, Andrew Biggs held a recess appointment as Deputy Commissioner of Social Security. The Senate had refused to confirm Biggs' appointment because of his advocacy for privatizing Social Security.

From a Wall Street Journal editorial page piece penned by Biggs and published today:

Until recently, Sen. Barack Obama took a responsible position on Social Security, noting the urgency of reform and saying all options should be on the table.

But having cornered himself among Democratic activists whose attitudes toward Social Security reform range from demagoguery to denial, Mr. Obama has recently veered sharply left. He now proposes to solve the looming Social Security shortfall exclusively with higher taxes. [Obama's plan is to partially lift the cap on wages covered by the FICA tax] ...

If we want to retain the shared character that underpins its political support and distinguishes it from traditional welfare programs, we need to share the burdens of reform proportionately.

For Biggs to talk about Obama undermining "the shared character that undepins [Social Security's] political support" is rich, since undermining Social Security's "shared character" is Biggs' purpose in life.

Social Security Union Endorses Obama

Council 220 of the American Federation of Government Employees, which represents 25,000 Social Security employees, has endorsed Barack Obama for President.