From an op ed by Lyman Stone in the New York Times:
… If America’s population does decline, it will strain our entitlements system, damage the economy, reduce innovation and entrepreneurship, and cause serious labor shortages. But the majority point of view — held by major institutions like the Census Bureau, the United Nations and the Social Security trustees — is that the United States probably won’t face population decline until the 2080s, or even beyond 2100.
That forecast is far too optimistic. The more accurate projection, which I outlined in a recent report for my organization, the Institute for Family Studies, sees the American population beginning to shrink in the 2050s. It is a forecast so grim it could upend American budgeting and, thus, American politics.
Start with the number that drives everything else. The American fertility rate has fallen below 1.6 children per woman, a record low. Replacement rate, the level that merely holds a population steady before immigration, is about 2.1. If the current trend in shrinking births continues, it’s likely that the U.S. population will largely stop growing in the 2030s, and begin to decline in the 2050s. Peak America may come before millennials meet their grandkids (if they have any. …
If birthrates continue to decline as they have been doing, then fertility will fall to 1.35 children per woman in 2050, and 1.15 by 2100. In that scenario, population growth will be anemic in the 2020s and 2030s, fall to essentially zero in the 2040s, and then, starting in the mid-2050s, experience a long, grinding decline. Each generation will be more than 30 percent smaller than the one before, the work force will shrink beneath the retirees it has to support, and the American century will give way to American contraction. …
Up until quite recently, the Social Security trustees’ main scenario assumed that fertility rates will rise from now until 2050, and stabilize at 1.9 children per woman. In 2023, the Census Bureau predicted that fertility rates will only gradually decline from 1.64 to 1.58 by 2075. Spoiler: Data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has already shown a 1.57 fertility rate for 2025. The U.N. expects that the U.S. fertility rate will be flat at about 1.65 through the entire 21st century. To its credit, Social Security trustees released new numbers just last month that revised their expectations down to 1.75 in 2050, but that is overly optimistic. The Congressional Budget Office is more realistic, but even it predicts that fertility will decline to 1.53, then stabilize. …
The writer is working for a pro-natalist project but that doesn’t mean he’s wrong. In fact, even if his projections are a bit pessimistic, he’s still talking about a serious problem. Pro-natalism is nearly hopeless, I think. We have little way as a society of influencing these highly personal decisions. Of course, pro-natalism usually has racist undertones, if not overtones, as well, but that’s a separate issue.
We need to accept that trying to hold down immigration to almost nothing is insane. We need more legal immigrants and we need to quit worrying so much about undocumented immigrants. Social Security needs these immigrants and so does the country. Those who oppose immigration invite long term catastrophe. At least we can attract all the immigrants we need, despite the hostility that most Republicans express towards black, brown, Asian and Muslim immigrants. Make use of our country’s attractiveness to immigrants. They and their children make great citizens
