Drain The Trust Funds

     From the Washington Post:

A new report projects that the Social Security Trust Fund might run out of money within six years under a Donald Trump presidency, while Vice President Kamala Harris’s proposed policies would not meaningfully change the current trajectory.

Social Security faces a looming funding crisis in an aging country, with trustees most recently predicting that the retirement and disability program’s trust fund will become insolvent in 2035. Many of Trump’s campaign proposals would accelerate that timeline, potentially by years, said the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a nonpartisan group that opposes large federal deficits.

In a report released Monday, the organization concluded that many of Trump’s proposed second-term agenda items all work in the same direction when it comes to the Social Security Trust Fund. The budget group did not produce a similar report on Harris’s policies because they would have a negligible effect measured only in weeks or months rather than years, said Marc Goldwein, CRFB’s senior policy director. ...

Most directly, Trump has promised that no Social Security recipients should have to pay federal income taxes on their benefits. Under current law, 40 percent of beneficiaries pay taxes on some portion of their Social Security. The tax they pay on their benefits goes directly back to the trust fund, and getting rid of it could cost the program almost $1 trillion over 10 years, the report forecast.

Other Trump policies might have indirect effects. Trump’s pledge to deport millions of undocumented workers could cost the trust fund hundreds of millions of dollars, the CRFB said. Many undocumented immigrants have payroll taxes taken out of their paychecks for the Social Security Trust Fund, but never become eligible to claim benefits, so they are a net positive for the program. ...

 

Social Security Subcommittee Schedules Hearing

    The House Social Security Subcommittee has scheduled a hearing for June 4 on The Social Security Trust Funds In 2024 And Beyond.

The Right Will Spin The Trustees Report As Showing That The Doomsday That They Have Always Predicted For Social Security Is Right Around The Corner But Actually The Report Is Good News This Year

     From a press release:

The Social Security Board of Trustees today released its annual report on the financial status of the health of the Social Security Trust Funds. The combined asset reserves of the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance and Disability Insurance (OASI and DI) Trust Funds are projected to have enough dedicated revenue to pay all scheduled benefits and associated administrative costs until 2035, one year later than projected last year, with 83 percent of benefits payable at that time.

In the 2024 Annual Report to Congress, the Trustees announced:

• The asset reserves of the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds declined by $41 billion in 2023 to a total of $2.788 trillion.
• The total annual cost of the program is projected to exceed total annual income in 2024 and remain higher throughout the 75-year projection period. Total cost began to be higher than total income in 2021. Social Security’s cost has exceeded its non-interest income since 2010.
• The year when the combined trust fund reserves are projected to become depleted, if Congress does not act before then, is 2035. At that time, there would be sufficient income coming in to pay 83 percent of scheduled benefits. ...

A Tale Of Two Trust Funds

     Social Security has released information showing how its trust funds have done through the end of 2023. Here are summaries for the Old Age and Survivors Trust Fund and the Disability Insurance Trust fund for the last five years. You'll notice that they're heading in opposite directions. I expect that money will eventually be diverted from the Disability Insurance Trust Fund to the Old Age and Survivor's Trust Fund, not that it will be enough to make much difference.

Old-Age and Survivors Insurance
(Amounts in millions)

Calendar year	Total income	Total outgo	Net increase in asset reserves	Asset reserves at end of calendar year
2019	$917,873	$911,423	$6,450	$2,804,322
2020	968,348	960,954	7,394	2,811,716
2021	942,856	1,001,936	-59,080	2,752,636
2022	1,056,718	1,097,455	-40,737	2,711,899
2023	1,166,885	1,237,294	-70,409	2,641,490

Disability Insurance
(Amounts in millions)

Calendar year	Total income	Total outgo	Net increase in asset reserves	Asset reserves at end of calendar year
2019	$143,901	$147,876	$-3,974	$93,083
2020	149,748	146,260	3,488	96,570
2021	145,470	142,646	2,824	99,394
2022	165,063	146,470	18,594	117,988
2023	183,801	154,815	28,985	146,973

What Effect Would A Federal Bond Default Have On The Social Security Trust Fund?

    If there's a default on the federal debt it would affect the market value of previously federal bonds. If the prevailing interest rate jumps, to let's say 8%, investors will pay a good deal less for previously issued bonds paying only 2.5%. Would that affect the value of the federal bonds held by the Social Security trust funds? I know that they can't sell the bonds on the open market but wouldn't a default affect the value of the bonds held in the trust fund? How do they value them on their books?

    Also, I  can imagine that if there is a delay in paying interest or principal on bonds that this could affect regular payment of benefits. The agency might not be able to get the money needed to pay benefits if they can't get money from their T-bills in time.

    On the other hand, a big increase in interest rates would help the trust funds gain more interest payments on newly issued bonds but, then, the major recession produced by a default on U.S. bonds certainly wouldn't help receipts and much higher inflation would definitely hurt the trust funds -- as well as beneficiaries.

    I hope and expect that all of this will remain theoretical. The consequences of a federal default are hard to even contemplate.

It's Complicated

     The question is often asked: "Why is Social Security even discussed in terms of the federal budget? Benefits are paid out of the trust funds, not general revenues." The answer to this question requires knowledge of some complicated history. Here it is from Social Security office agency history:

... From the beginning of the Social Security program its transactions were reported by the administration as a separate function in the budget. This is sometimes described in present usage by saying that the Social Security program was "off-budget." This was the budget representation of the Social Security program from its creation in 1935 until 1968. ...

In early 1968 President Lyndon Johnson made a change in the budget presentation by including Social Security and all other trust funds in a"unified budget." This is likewise sometimes described by saying that Social Security was placed "on-budget."

This 1968 change grew out of the recommendations of a presidential commission appointed by President Johnson in 1967, and known as the President's Commission on Budget Concepts. The concern of this Commission was not specifically with the Social Security Trust Funds, but rather it was an effort to rationalize what the Commission viewed as a confusing budget presentation. ...

In the 1983 Social Security Amendments a provision was included mandating that Social Security be taken "off-budget" starting in FY 1993. This was a recommendation from the National Commission on Social Security Reform (aka the Greenspan Commission). The Commission's report argued: "The National Commission believes that changes in the Social Security program should be made only for programmatic reasons, and not for purposes of balancing the budget. Those who support the removal of the operations of the trust funds from the budget believe that this policy of making changes only for programmatic reasons would be more likely to be carried out if the Social Security program were not in the unified budget." ...

[I]n the Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act (OBRA) of 1990 the law was changed to stop the use of the Trust Funds for any function in the unified budget, including calculations of the deficit. ... The BEA budget treatment of Social Security basically remains the law to the present day. Specifically, present law mandates that the two Social Security Trust Funds, and the operations of the Postal Service, are formally considered to be "off-budget" and no longer part of the unified federal budget. ...

However, those involved in budget matters often produce two sets of numbers, one without Social Security included in the budget totals and one with Social Security included. Thus, Social Security is still frequently treated as though it were part of the unified federal budget even though, technically, it no longer is. ...

    One crucial way that Social Security is treated as part of the budget is in the way that Congress handles appropriations for Social Security's administrative budget. Technically, Social Security doesn't receive an appropriation. It's called a Limitation on Administrative Expenditures (LAE). Social Security's LAE is lumped in with the Labor-HHS appropriations bill, probably because Social Security used to be part of HHS. The Labor-HHS bill is the one that's always most controversial with Republican legislators. They work hardest at keeping the Labor-HHS bill as low as possible, which hurts Social Security. The agency could be moved out of the Labor-HHS bill. Probably, a statute could even be passed allowing administrative expenditures as needed without a specific annual LAE but that's not going to happen since it would reduce the powers of the appropriations committees in Congress, not that those powers have been exercised to any significant extent apart from keeping the agency on a starvation diet.

Trustees Report Released

     From a press release:

The Social Security Board of Trustees today released its annual report on the financial status of the Social Security Trust Funds.  The combined asset reserves of the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance and Disability Insurance (OASI and DI) Trust Funds are projected to become depleted in 2034, one year earlier than projected last year, with 80 percent of benefits payable at that time. 

The OASI Trust Fund is projected to become depleted in 2033, one year sooner than last year’s estimate, with 77 percent of benefits payable at that time.  The DI Trust Fund asset reserves are not projected to become depleted during the 75-year projection period. ...

Don't Panic!

     Paul Krugman has an excellent piece in the New York Times about why we should not panic about Social Security. You really should read the whole thing. Here are a few excerpts:

...  The thing about Social Security is that from the beginning it was designed to encourage misconceptions. It looks, on casual inspection, like a giant version of a private pension plan. ...

I’m pretty sure that it was set up to look like an ordinary pension fund because that made it politically easier to sell. But in reality, Social Security has never been run like a private pension plan. ...

For one thing, for the first half-century of the program’s existence it had almost no assets; in 1985, the trust fund was only large enough to pay around two months’ worth of benefits. So it has always operated mainly on a pay-as-you-go basis, with today’s payroll taxes paying for today’s retiree benefits, not tomorrow’s.

I often get mail from people claiming that this makes Social Security a Ponzi scheme. But it isn’t. It’s just a government program supported by a dedicated tax ...

I get a lot of mail from people saying that we should simply eliminate the upper limit on the payroll tax. That would certainly raise a lot of money. But bear in mind that there’s no fundamental reason Social Security has to be financed with payroll taxes — we only do it that way because back in 1935, F.D.R.’s advisers thought it would be a good idea to dress Social Security up to look like a private pension fund. ...

The other idea I hear a lot is that we should raise the retirement age — which has already been increased, from 65 to 67. After all, people are living longer, so they can work longer, right?

Well, some people are living longer. But one key point in thinking about Social Security is that the number of years you can expect to spend collecting benefits has become increasingly linked to the income you earned earlier in your life. ...

[C]alling for an increase in the retirement age is, in effect, saying that janitors can’t be allowed to retire because lawyers are living longer. Not a very nice position to take. ...

 

Trust Funds Report

     Social Security's actuaries have released final trust fund numbers for calendar year 2022. The Disability Trust Fund entered the year with $99 billion on hand and ended the year with $118 billion. The Retirement Trust Fund entered the year with $2.76 trillion and ended the year with $2.71 trillion on hand. Combined, the two Trust Funds entered the year with $2.85 trillion dollars and ended the year with $2.83 trillion.

Senators Complain About Late Trustees Reports

From a press release: 

U.S. Senators Bill Cassidy, M.D. (R-LA), Mike Crapo (R-ID), and Senate Finance Committee Republicans sent a letter to the Government Accountability Office (GAO) requesting the agency monitor the Managing Trustee’s flagrant disregard for statutory deadlines.  Required by law, the Medicare and Social Security Trustees reports are to be issued no later than April 1, yet the 2021 and 2022 reports were issued August 31 and June 2, respectively.  ...  

The Biden Administration has repeatedly ignored Congressional inquiries as to why the trustees reports have not been submitted in a timely manner.  Neither Treasury Secretary Yellen nor the Board of Trustees have signaled any intent to modify internal procedure regulating management of the report schedule, nor have they adopted previous GAO recommendations to improve communication with Congress.  It is the responsibility of the Treasury Secretary to provide these reports to Congress in a timely manner, as required by law, or provide Congress and the American people with explanations for late work.  ...

    These delays are annoying but it's not like the Trustees Reports have arrived on time during Republican administrations. I suspect the delays have to do with staffing at Social Security's Office of Chief Actuary but I don't know. The delay certainly isn't a major problem.

And He's Up For Re-Election This Year!

     Senator Ron Johnson (R-WI) didn't stop with his plan to make Social Security benefits subject to annual appropriations. Now, he's back to insist that Social Security wasn't set up properly to begin with, that in the midst of the Great Depression, not long after the original Black Friday, with memories still fresh of stock brokers plummeting from windows, that the Trust Fund should have been invested in stocks! I think that at that time his idea might have gotten him locked up for insanity. (The standards for involuntary commitment were looser in those days.) Of course, it's still a bad idea for many reasons but in the 1930s? How ignorant can you be of history?

Trustees Report Released

From the just released annual report of the Social Security trustees:

...  Considered separately, the OASI [Old Age and Survivors Insurance] Trust Fund reserves become depleted in 2034, and, for the first time since the 1983 Trustees Report, the DI [Disability Insurance] Trust Fund reserves do not become depleted within the 75-year long-range projection period. ...

[T]he projected hypothetical combined OASI and DI Trust Fund asset reserves become depleted and unable to pay scheduled benefits in full on a timely basis in 2035. ...

Who Is Naive Enough To Believe This?

      From Roll Call:

If Republicans take one or both chambers of Congress in November, don’t be surprised if shoring up Social Security’s finances becomes an area of bipartisan focus.

Pronouncements like that have been made before only to die on the next election campaign’s vine. But the spirit of compromise that animated discussions around last year’s bipartisan infrastructure package appears to be creeping into nascent talks about finally, really, this-time-we’re-not-joking doing something to stave off Social Security insolvency.

The prospects look brighter now in the Senate, where veterans of previous bipartisan “gangs” have begun talking about the need for fixes. ...

     What are the chances that Democrats agree to benefit cuts? Nearly zero. What are the chances that Republicans agree to tax increases? Nearly zero. Spirit of compromise? Are you kidding? Nothing's going to happen until there's a gun to their heads.

Final 2021 Trust Fund Numbers

      Social Security has posted final 2021 numbers for the Trust Funds. There are two tables below, the first for combined Old Age, Survivors and Disability Trust Funds (even though these are two separate funds) and then for the Disability Trust Fund alone. As always, click on the image to view full size.

How Are The Trust Funds Invested?

    

     Have you ever wondered about how the Social Security trust funds are invested? Probably you know they're invested in U.S. government bonds but you wonder about the mechanics. Here are all your answers in a report by the Congressional Research Service. 

     By the way, if you don't like the idea of the Trust Funds being invested in government bonds, how would you have them invested? Are you comfortable with the U.S. government owning trillions of dollars in corporate stocks and bonds? Isn't that more than a little socialistic? How would the government decide what to buy and sell? How would it vote on elections of corporate boards of directors? What happens when the markets go down in value?

Trustees Report Finally Released

      From a press release:

The Social Security Board of Trustees today released its annual report on the long-term financial status of the Social Security Trust Funds. The combined asset reserves of the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance and Disability Insurance (OASI and DI) Trust Funds are projected to become depleted in 2034, one year earlier than projected last year, with 78 percent of benefits payable at that time. 

The OASI Trust Fund is projected to become depleted in 2033, one year sooner than last year’s estimate, with 76 percent of benefits payable at that time. The DI Trust Fund is estimated to become depleted in 2057, eight years earlier than last year’s estimate, with 91 percent of benefits still payable. ...

Good Report From CBO While Social Security Actuary Points Finger At Treasury

      From Marketwatch:

… According to the just-released analysis, Social Security’s Old Age and Survivor Insurance (OASI) trust fund will remain solvent a year longer than previously thought. This is the trust fund from which Social Security benefits are paid. …

This new analysis was produced by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), the non-partisan agency that analyzes the budget impact of various legislative proposals. To put its findings in context, it’s helpful to remember that every year the office of Social Security’s chief actuary updates its assessment of the OASI trust fund’s solvency. Its annual report typically is released in the spring.

No such report has been forthcoming this year, however. In an email, the chief actuary’s office told me that the decision about when to release its annual report is not theirs to make but instead is made by the U.S. Treasury Department. An email earlier this summer to that department asking for when this report will be forthcoming went unanswered. …

     Anyone want to speculate on why Treasury is holding this up?

Overdue

     There's an annual Trustees Report on the state of the Social Security Trust Funds that gathers same public attention. Last year's report came out on April 22 but none so far this year so we're overdue. I suppose the pandemic might have something to do with the delay. The change in Administrations might also play a role.

Update On Trust Funds

      Normally, Social Security's Office of Chief Actuary (OCA) updates its projections of the financial health of the Social Security Trust Funds once a year in an annual Trustees Report that comes out sometime in the first half of the year.  Because of the Covid-19 pandemic, the OCA has issued a special update. If I am reading this correctly -- and I don't find it to be a model of clarity -- the date upon which the combined Trust Funds will run out of money goes from 2035 to 2034. I don't see separate projections for the Retirement and Survivors Insurance Trust Fund and the Disability Insurance Trust Fund.

     Always remember two things when considering the future of the Trust Funds. First, it's extremely unlikely that any future Congress will allow the Trust Funds to run out of money. Second, even if they do run out of money, partial benefits could still be paid out of then current revenues, perhaps something like 80% of what's supposed to be paid.

CBO Produces Startling Report On DI Trust Fund Future

      Social Security's Office of Chief Actuary releases annual projections for the future status of the Old Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) and Disability Insurance (DI) Trust Funds, called the trustees report.  The 2020 report projects that the OASI Trust Fund will lack funds to pay full benefits in 2034 and the DI Trust Fund in 2065.

     The trustees report is the one that people pay the most attention to but it's not the only one. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) produces its own projections. That report has just been issued. It shows that the OASI Trust Fund will lack funds to pay full benefits in 2031 and the DI Trust Fund in 2026.

     The difference between the OASI projections (2034 versus 2031) is significant but the difference in the DI projections (2065 versus 2026) is eye popping. The difference in the OASI projections are probably due to different economic assumptions. The CBO had the benefit of knowing about the Covid-19 pandemic. There's no easy explanation for the difference in the DI projections. The CBO report doesn't attempt to explain the difference other than saying:

CBO had previously projected that the DI trust fund would be solvent through the end of the 10-year projection period. The earlier exhaustion date currently projected is largely the result of CBO’s projections of lower payroll tax revenues and higher spending on benefits in the next few year.