Aug 11, 2025

Has Social Security's Chief Actuary Put Her Job In Jeopardy By Delivering Bad News?

     From a letter to Senator Ron Wyden from Karen Glenn, Social Security's Chief Actuary:

... We estimate that implementation of the OBBBA [One Big Beautiful Bill Act] will result in net increased program cost starting in 2025. Over calendar years 2025 through 2034, the total net increase in OASDI [Retirement, Survivors and Disability] program cost is estimated to be $168.6 billion. In addition, the timing of combined OASI [Retirement] and DI [Disability] Trust Fund reserve depletion is accelerated from the third quarter of 2034 under the 2025 Trustees Report baseline to the first quarter of 2034 following implementation of the law. Considered alone, the reserve depletion date for the OASI Trust Fund is accelerated from the first quarter of 2033 to the fourth quarter of 2032. DI Trust Fund reserves are not projected to become depleted during the 75-year projection period. ...

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