Trustees Report Released

From the just released annual report of the Social Security trustees:

...  Considered separately, the OASI [Old Age and Survivors Insurance] Trust Fund reserves become depleted in 2034, and, for the first time since the 1983 Trustees Report, the DI [Disability Insurance] Trust Fund reserves do not become depleted within the 75-year long-range projection period. ...

[T]he projected hypothetical combined OASI and DI Trust Fund asset reserves become depleted and unable to pay scheduled benefits in full on a timely basis in 2035. ...

Final 2021 Trust Fund Numbers

      Social Security has posted final 2021 numbers for the Trust Funds. There are two tables below, the first for combined Old Age, Survivors and Disability Trust Funds (even though these are two separate funds) and then for the Disability Trust Fund alone. As always, click on the image to view full size.

Don't Listen To This Nonsense

     I have no idea whether Democrats will advance President Biden's Social Security plan in this Congress. However, if it does start to advance, we're likely to see opposition of the sort put forward recently by Alicia Munnell of the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College. She is disappointed that the Biden plan doesn't solve Social Security's long term funding issues for the next 75 years!

     Why is it essential or even important that all issues be solved until near the year 2100? First, any projections that far out are inherently unreliable so no plan can conceivable solve all issues this far in advance. Second, if it's important to solve problems that far in advance, why hasn't the Department of Defense already solved our national security issues for the next 75 years? Why adopt any plan to address global warming that doesn't solve the issue once and for all? We don't expect any other sort of legislation to solve problems 75 years into the future. Why should we expect Social Security legislation to do so? 

     Listening to people like Alicia Munnell would make any legislation impossible. Don't make the perfect the enemy of the good.

Disability Trust Fund Holding Up Despite Pandemic

      Social Security's Office of Chief Actuary has released the numbers on the performance of the Disability Insurance Trust Fund in 2020. Things went pretty well despite the high unemployment caused by the pandemic. The Trust Fund ended 2020 having gained about two and a half billion dollars since the end of 2019. We'll have updated long term projections in a few months but if you were dreading (or hoping) for a Disability Insurance Trust Fund collapse due to the pandemic, it hasn't happened. See the table below. As always, click on the image to view it full size.

Disability Trust Fund Reserves Increasing Despite Pandemic

      There's reason for concern over the status of Social Security's Retirement and Survivor's Insurance Trust Fund. Because of the pandemic, F.I.C.A. revenues are down, while payments to retirees continue. However, despite a decline in revenues, the Disability Insurance Trust Fund's reserves are increasing because payments to disabled beneficiaries keep going down. By the way in reading the table below, keep in mind that there is considerable seasonality in F.I.C.A. payments. Compare each quarter of this year to the same quarter in the preceding year and look at the overall picture.

CBO Produces Startling Report On DI Trust Fund Future

      Social Security's Office of Chief Actuary releases annual projections for the future status of the Old Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) and Disability Insurance (DI) Trust Funds, called the trustees report.  The 2020 report projects that the OASI Trust Fund will lack funds to pay full benefits in 2034 and the DI Trust Fund in 2065.

     The trustees report is the one that people pay the most attention to but it's not the only one. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) produces its own projections. That report has just been issued. It shows that the OASI Trust Fund will lack funds to pay full benefits in 2031 and the DI Trust Fund in 2026.

     The difference between the OASI projections (2034 versus 2031) is significant but the difference in the DI projections (2065 versus 2026) is eye popping. The difference in the OASI projections are probably due to different economic assumptions. The CBO had the benefit of knowing about the Covid-19 pandemic. There's no easy explanation for the difference in the DI projections. The CBO report doesn't attempt to explain the difference other than saying:

CBO had previously projected that the DI trust fund would be solvent through the end of the 10-year projection period. The earlier exhaustion date currently projected is largely the result of CBO’s projections of lower payroll tax revenues and higher spending on benefits in the next few year.

Final 2019 Trust Fund Numbers

     Social Security has posted the final calendar year 2019 numbers for the Social Security Disability Insurance Trust Fund. The fund declined by about $4 billion last year. As of the end of the year, the fund balance was $93 billion. The Old Age and Survivors Insurance Trust Fund gained $6.4 billion in the last calendar year. Its balance stands at $2.8 trillion.

My Top Eight List

     I've finally gotten around to the sort of list you've seen a lot of in the last couple of weeks -- the most important things that have happened in the Social Security world in the last decade. Below is my list but feel free to post your own list. I came up with eight and didn't want to pad it to make it ten.

1. Constant administrative under-funding of the Social Security Administration accompanied by frequent shutdown threats and occasional actual shutdowns. Agency performance suffered as a result. Service has deteriorated to levels that would have once been thought unimaginable;
2. After the number of Social Security disability claims soared in the 2000-2009 decade, the number of claims started declining in 2010. That decline is continuing. We think we know why claims soared from 2000-2009 -- primarily the aging of the baby boomer population -- but no one has a good handle on why the number of disability claims filed has gone down so much since then or why the decline continues;
3. The Eric Conn debacle which led to a general climate of hostility towards Social Security disability claimants;
4. Social Security went more than six years without a confirmed Social Security Commissioner because Republican Senators wouldn't confirm an Obama nominee and Trump was so slow in nominating anyone;
5. The ongoing story of Social Security's Disability Case Processing System (DCPS) which may or may not ever work;
6. The deal to extend the life of the Social Security Disability Insurance Trust Fund;
7. Social Security's ongoing refusal to deal with the obsolescence of the Dictionary of Occupational Titles;
8. The collapse of Binder and Binder. Yes, I know there's a stub of Binder and Binder left but it's nothing like what it was. A 60 Minutes hit piece hurt Binder and Binder but the bigger problem was that it was based upon a business model that could not succeed at a time when the number of disability claims was going down and it was becoming progressively more difficult to get a claim approved. The ironic thing was that the 60 Minutes hit piece damaged Social Security attorneys generally even though we were appalled by Binder and Binder long before the rest of the world was. At least the original owners sold out to a private equity company -- which I still find astounding -- before the bottom dropped out and have now bought back the stub.

Disability Trust Fund Doing Fine

     After the balance in Social Security's Disability Insurance Trust Fund dipped to a low level in 2015, Congress passed and President Obama signed a bill that temporarily diverted more of the F.I.CA. taxes from Social Security's Retirement and Survivors Trust Fund to its Disability Trust Fund for three years, 2016-2018. So how's the trust fund doing in 2019 without the additional revenue? Not too bad. With the extra revenues, the Disability Trust Fund gained $18.1 billion in the first seven months of last year. In the first seven months of 2019, without the additional tax revenue, the Disability Trust Fund gained $2 billion. As of last month, the Disability Trust Fund balance was a healthy $99.1 billion.

A Massive Change In Disability Trust Fund Projection

     From a Social Security press release (emphasis added):

The Social Security Board of Trustees today released its annual report on the long-term financial status of the Social Security Trust Funds. The combined asset reserves of the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance and Disability Insurance (OASI and DI) Trust Funds are projected to become depleted in 2035, one year later than projected last year, with 80 percent of benefits payable at that time.

The OASI Trust Fund is projected to become depleted in 2034, the same as last year’s estimate, with 77 percent of benefits payable at that time. The DI Trust Fund is estimated to become depleted in 2052, extended 20 years from last year’s estimate of 2032, with 91 percent of benefits still payable. ...

View the 2019 Trustees Report at www.socialsecurity.gov/OACT/TR/2019/.

     The change in the estimate for the Disability Trust Fund must be the most massive correction every made by the Chief Actuary in Social Security's long history. That correction tells me that the Disability Trust Fund projection is nearly meaningless. The Chief Actuary doesn't know what's going on. Nobody does.
     By the way, back when the Disability Trust Fund balance was going down, I kept saying that it was coming closer and closer to being in balance, that it might survive even without a legislative fix. We had a legislative fix to temporarily shunt more money into the Disability Trust Fund but I still wonder whether that was necessary. Would the Disability Trust Fund have ever run out of money if nothing had been done?

Social Security Disability Trust Fund Operations 2017-18

Disability Insurance
(Amounts in billions)

Quarter	Total income	Total outgo	Net increase in asset reserves	Asset reserves at end of quarter
Qtr 1, 2017	$43.9	$36.5	$7.4	$53.7
Qtr 2, 2017	49.1	36.9	12.2	65.9
Qtr 3, 2017	40.0	36.4	3.5	69.4
Qtr 4, 2017	38.0	35.9	2.0	71.5
Qtr 1, 2018	44.7	36.9	7.8	79.3
Qtr 2, 2018	47.0	37.0	9.9	89.2
Qtr 3, 2018	40.6	36.7	3.9	93.1
Qtr 4, 2018	40.1	36.1	3.9	97.1

Notes:

The net increase in asset reserves is total income less total outgo. Data are provided by the Department of the Treasury in monthly reports.

DI Trust Fund Makes Big Stride In One Year

     A Social Security press release (emphasis added):

The Social Security Board of Trustees today released its annual report on the long-term financial status of the Social Security Trust Funds. The combined asset reserves of the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance and Disability Insurance (OASDI) Trust Funds are projected to become depleted in 2034, the same as projected last year, with 79 percent of benefits payable at that time.

The OASI Trust Fund is projected to become depleted in late 2034, as compared to last year’s estimate of early 2035, with 77 percent of benefits payable at that time. The DI Trust Fund will become depleted in 2032, extended from last year’s estimate of 2028, with 96 percent of benefits still payable.

In the 2018 Annual Report to Congress, the Trustees announced:

• The asset reserves of the combined OASDI Trust Funds increased by $44 billion in 2017 to a total of $2.89 trillion.
• The total annual cost of the program is projected to exceed total annual income in 2018 for the first time since 1982, and remain higher throughout the 75-year projection period. As a result, asset reserves are expected to decline during 2018. Social Security’s cost has exceeded its non-interest income since 2010.
• The year when the combined trust fund reserves are projected to become depleted, if Congress does not act before then, is 2034 – the same as projected last year. At that time, there will be sufficient income coming in to pay 79 percent of scheduled benefits.

“The Trustees’ projected depletion date of the combined Social Security Trust Funds has not changed, and slightly more than three-fourths of benefits would still be payable after depletion,” said Nancy A. Berryhill, Acting Commissioner of Social Security. “But the fact remains that Congress can keep Social Security strong by taking action to ensure the future of the program.”

Other highlights of the Trustees Report include:

• Total income, including interest, to the combined OASDI Trust Funds amounted to $997 billion in 2017. ($874 billion from net payroll tax contributions, $38 billion from taxation of benefits, and $85 billion in interest)
• Total expenditures from the combined OASDI Trust Funds amounted to more than $952 billion in 2017.
• Social Security paid benefits of more than $941 billion in calendar year 2017. There were about 62 million beneficiaries at the end of the calendar year.
• The projected actuarial deficit over the 75-year long-range period is 2.84 percent of taxable payroll – slightly larger than the 2.83 percent projected in last year’s report.
• During 2017, an estimated 174 million people had earnings covered by Social Security and paid payroll taxes.
• The cost of $6.5 billion to administer the Social Security program in 2017 was a very low 0.7 percent of total expenditures.
• The combined Trust Fund asset reserves earned interest at an effective annual rate of 3.0 percent in 2017.

The Board of Trustees usually comprises six members. Four serve by virtue of their positions with the federal government: Steven T. Mnuchin, Secretary of the Treasury and Managing Trustee; Nancy A. Berryhill, Acting Commissioner of Social Security; Alex M. Azar II, Secretary of Health and Human Services; and R. Alexander Acosta, Secretary of Labor. The two public trustee positions are currently vacant.

View the 2018 Trustees Report at www.socialsecurity.gov/OACT/TR/2018/.

Disability Insurance Trust Fund Reserves Increasing

     From the Office of Chief Actuary, Social Security Administration:

Disability Insurance
(Amounts in billions)

Calendar year	Total income	Total outgo	Net increase in asset reserves	Asset reserves at end of calendar year
2013	$111.2	$143.4	$-32.2	$90.4
2014	114.9	145.1	-30.2	60.2
2015	118.6	146.6	-28.0	32.3
2016	160.0	145.9	14.1	46.3
2017	171.0	145.8	25.1	71.5

Do Big Backlogs Help The Disability Trust Fund?

     The Hill asks the question: Is the Social Security Disability Insurance Trust Fund doing better because increasing backlogs slow down the number of claims being approved? The answer is pretty clearly yes to some extent although there are more important factors. 

    I think one overlooked factor is that the long backlogs and harsh adjudicatory environment deter people from filing claims. Few people stop work due to illness or injury and file a disability claim immediately. There's usually a lag time that can be anywhere from a few months to a few years. A perception that the process is difficult and unpleasant can cause people to hold off longer in filing claims. I wish some investigator would look into this. You'd only need to look at the difference between claim date and alleged onset date and chart the difference over time. You could then correlate that with backlogs and approval rates. My guess is that the result would be interesting.

Disability Trust Fund Improves

     Social Security has released the final 2016 numbers on the Disability Insurance Trust Fund. The Trust Fund balance had been declining over the last few years until there was a temporary reallocation of FICA revenues. That started at the beginning of 2016. You can see the improvement that resulted.

Disability Insurance
(Amounts in millions)

Quarter	Total income	Total outgo	Net increase in asset reserves	Asset reserves at end of quarter
Qtr 1, 2015	$30,582	$36,483	$-5,901	$54,343
Qtr 2, 2015	33,697	37,241	-3,544	50,799
Qtr 3, 2015	27,508	36,651	-9,143	41,656
Qtr 4, 2015	26,808	36,206	-9,397	32,259
Qtr 1, 2016	39,509	36,509	2,999	35,258
Qtr 2, 2016	45,519	37,049	8,470	43,728
Qtr 3, 2016	38,457	36,444	2,012	45,740
Qtr 4, 2016	36,512	35,914	598	46,338

Disability Trust Fund Looking Better

     From the written testimony of Stephen Goss, Social Security's Chief Actuary, to the Social Security Subcommittee of the House Ways and Means Committee yesterday:

At the time of enactment [this year of changes designed to shore up the Disability Trust Fund], we estimated that the date of trust fund reserve depletion for DI [Disability Insurance] would be extended 6 years, from 2016 to 2022. In the 2016 Trustees Report, we now project that DI reserves will not deplete until 2023, largely due to the lower than expected recent level of benefit expenditures. Applications for disability benefits have been declining since 2010, and have continued to be below our prior projections.

     In fact, if you look at the full Trustees report, you'll find that there are three projections for each trust fund, the Low-Cost, Intermediate and High-Cost projections. The projection of a 2023 exhaustion date is the Intermediate projection. The High-Cost projection has an exhaustion date of 2020 and the Low-Cost projected exhaustion date is never.

Newsflash: There's No Free Lunch

     Social Security's Office of Chief Actuary recently completed a set of estimates on the effects of a wide range of proposals concerning Social Security disability benefits. Here are some estimates that may surprise you:

• Implementing any type of benefit offset scheme would cost money, not save money;
• Changes to the grid regulations would have only a minor effect;
• Changes to evidence submission rules would have a negligible effect;
• Eliminating reconsideration would cost money although not that much
• A change to suspend benefits or offset benefits due to the receipt of unemployment insurance benefits would have a negligible effect;
• Any changes in program integrity would have almost no effect.

     If you want to have a significant effect on the Disability Insurance Trust Fund, you either have to make it much more difficult to get on benefits or reduce benefit payments or raise taxes. You're not going to accomplish much without making a lot of people mad.

Final 2015 Disability Insurance Trust Fund Numbers

     The Social Security Administration has released the final numbers for last year on the performance of the Disability Insurance Trust Fund. Because of a temporary change the Disability Insurance Trust Fund's revenues will increase in 2016. The fund's balance should be higher at the end of 2016 than it is today. Please note however that the annual deficits in the Disability Insurance Trust Fund have gone down each of the last two years. Continuation of this trend would slowly move the Disability Trust fund towards balance.

Disability Insurance
(Amounts in millions)

Calendar year	Total income	Total outgo	Net increase in asset reserves	Asset reserves at end of calendar year
2011	$106,276	$132,332	$-26,056	$153,850
2012	109,115	140,299	-31,184	122,666
2013	111,228	143,450	-32,221	90,445
2014	114,858	145,060	-30,201	60,244
2015	118,595	146,581	-27,985	32,259

How Republican Congressional Leaders Deal With Their Rank And File

     Monday night there were press reports that the budget deal recently being announced would include dramatic changes in Social Security disability. There would be $168 billion in cuts which would be around a 10% cut. Actually, the cuts were tiny. What happened? From what I've been able to piece together the $168 billion figure came from a fact sheet that Republican Congressional leaders released to their members. Conventionally, in preparing this sort of document, increases or decreases in spending are stated for a ten year time period. About $150 billion a year are paid in Social Security Disability Insurance Benefits. A $168 billion cut over ten years would be a dramatic 10% cut in benefits. However, the $168 billion wasn't for ten years. It was for 75 years! A 75 year time frame is occasionally used in discussing Social Security's long term financing but I don't think I've ever seen such a time frame used in discussing budgets. Republican leaders released only the fact sheet until late Monday night when the actual bill was posted. I would call the Republican fact sheet deliberately misleading.

     There may have been another deception. The bill awaiting Congressional approval transfers part of the FICA tax revenues from the Retirement and Survivors Trust Fund to the Disability Trust Fund for only three years. That means the Disability Trust Fund problems are solved for only three years, until 2019, when Republicans get another crack at the program, right? Take a look at today's New York Times. It says that the Disability Trust Fund problem is solved until 2022. How can that be? The bill will increase the portion of FICA that goes to the Disability Trust Fund from 1.8% to 2.37% for only three years. However, it appears that this reallocation for only three years will be enough to solve the problem for six years. If they had been trying to solve the problem for only three years, the reallocation would have been smaller. Of course, it would be better to solve the problem for the indefinite future but six years is a lot better than three years. Maybe there was some other reason for drafting the bill like this but it looks to me like Congressional Republican leaders wanted to make it appear that they'd get another crack at Social Security disability sooner than they will.

The Actual Language From The Big Deal -- Doesn't Look Dramatic But Hard To Understand

     The reporting from various media sources last night on the Social Security provisions of the deal between the White House and Congressional leaders varied from confused to inadequate to completely wrong. We have the actual bill now. Here is some of the actual text of the bill with my interpretation, or maybe I should say questions, in brackets and bolded:

• Not later than October 1, 2022, the Commissioner of Social Security shall take any necessary actions, subject to the availability of appropriations, to ensure that cooperative disability investigations units have been established, in areas where there is co-operation with local law enforcement agencies, that would cover each of the 50 States, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, Guam, the Northern Mariana Islands, the Virgin Islands, and American Samoa. [Congress demands that Social Security extend cooperative disability reviews to every state and even to the Northern Mariana Islands but limits this to the extent that Congress appropriates money, dramatically undercutting the demand]
  
• Section 3 811(a) of such Act (42 U.S.C. 1011(a)) ... is further amended by striking the period at the end and inserting ‘‘, except that in the case of a person who receives a fee or other income for services performed in connection with any determination with respect to benefits under this title (including a claimant representative, translator, or current or former employee of the Social Security Administration), or who is a physician or other health care provider who submits, or causes the submission of, medical or other evidence in connection with any such determination, such person shall be guilty of a felony and upon conviction thereof shall be fined under title 18, United States Code, or imprisoned for not more than ten years, or both.’’. [I don't understand. It's now a crime to submit medical evidence in support of a disability claim? This doesn't make sense to me.]
• Section 1140(b) of such Act (42 U.S.C. 15 1320b-10(b)) is amended by inserting after the second sentence the following: ‘‘In the case of any items referred to in subsection (a)(1) consisting of Internet or other electronic communications, each dissemination, viewing, or accessing of such a communication which contains one or more words, letters, symbols, or emblems in violation of subsection (a) shall represent a separate violation’’. [Even viewing an inappropriately used Social Security symbol is a crime?]
  
• The Commissioner shall carry out a demonstration project ...[A]ny such benefit otherwise payable to the individual for such month (other than a benefit payable for any month prior to the 1st month beginning after the date on which the individual’s entitlement to such benefit is determined) shall be reduced by $1 for each $2 by which the individual’s earnings derived from services paid during such month exceeds an amount equal to the individual’s impairment-related work expenses for such month [OK, we're only talking about a benefits offset demonstration project.] ... For purposes of paragraph (2)(A) and except as provided in subparagraph (C), the amount of an individual’s impairment-related work expenses for a month is deemed to be the minimum threshold amount. [This sounds like a stringent offset. Any earnings over impairment-related work expenses are subject to the offset. That would strongly discourage work by Social Security disability recipients]... In this paragraph, the term ‘minimum threshold amount’ means an amount, to be determined by the Commissioner, which shall not exceed the amount sufficient to demonstrate that an individual has rendered services in a month, as determined by the Commissioner under section 222(c)(4)(A). [What are you saying here? There is a threshold amount beyond the impairment-related work expenses? I don't understand what you're trying to say.] The Commissioner may test multiple minimum threshold amounts.[So lots of thresholds will be tried. Good.] ... An individual who has authorized the Commissioner of Social Security to obtain records from a payroll data provider under subsection (c) shall not be subject to a penalty under section 1129A for any omission or error with respect to such individual’s wages as reported by the payroll data provider.’’.  [You're going to enforce the benefit offset by getting electronic records from employers and you won't punish the claimant if these records are mistaken. Sounds fine if these electronic records are accurate. Are they? I don't think my firm is reporting wages to anyone other than the IRS. What about self-employment?]
  
• If an individual is eligible for a wife’s or husband’s insurance benefit (except in the case of eligibility pursuant to clause (ii) of subsection (b)(1)(B) or subsection (c)(1)(B), as appropriate), in any month for which the individual is entitled to an old-age insurance benefit, such individual shall be deemed to have filed an application for wife’s or husband’s insurance benefits for such month. ... If an individual is eligible (but for section 202(k)(4)) for an old-age insurance benefit in any month for which the individual is entitled to a wife’s or husband’s insurance benefit (except in the case of entitlement pursuant to clause (ii) of subsection (b)(1)(B) or subsection (c)(1)(B), as appropriate), such individual shall be deemed to have filed an application for old-age insurance benefits. [I think they're ending file and suspend.]
  
• An initial determination under subsection (a), (c), (g), or (i) shall not be made until the Commissioner of Social Security has made every reasonable effort to ensure—  ‘‘(1) in any case where there is evidence which indicates the existence of a mental impairment, that a qualified psychiatrist or psychologist has completed the medical portion of the case review and any applicable residual functional capacity assessment; and ‘‘(2) in any case where there is evidence which indicates the existence of a physical impairment, that a qualified physician has completed the medical portion of the case review and any applicable residual functional capacity assessment.’’. [This ends the Single Decision-Maker project. This modestly slows down disability determinations.]
  
• Section 201(b)(1) of the Social Security Act (42 U.S.C. 401(b)(1)) is amended by striking ‘‘and (R) 1.80 per centum of the wages (as so defined) paid after December 31, 1999, and so reported’’ and inserting ‘‘(R) 1.80 per centum of the wages (as so defined) paid after December 31, 1999, and before January 1, 2016, and so reported, (S) 2.37 per centum of the wages (as so defined) paid after December 31, 2015, and before January 1, 10 2019, and so reported, and (T) 1.80 per centum of  the wages (as so defined) paid after December 31, 12 2018, and so reported,’’. [This would end the Disability Trust Fund problem but only for three years, at which point we may have to go through the same "crisis" again.]
  
• The Commissioner of Social Security shall annually submit to the Committee on Ways and Means of the House of Representatives and the Committee on Finance of the Senate a report on the number of work-related continuing disability reviews conducted each year to determine whether earnings derived from services demonstrate an individual’s ability to engage in substantial gainful activity. [Is work supposed to trigger a continuing disability review, that is, if you do any work, is Social Security supposed to review your medical records to see if you're still disabled? If that were the case it would be a big deterrent to any attempt to return to work. I think, or maybe hope, that they are just talking about using employment records to determine whether a beneficiary's status under the work incentives.] 
  
• Notwithstanding any other provision of law, the Office of Personnel Management shall, upon request of the Commissioner of Social Security, expeditiously administer a sufficient number of competitive examinations, as determined by the Commissioner, for the purpose of identifying an adequate number of candidates to be appointed as Administrative Law Judges under section 3105 of title 5, United States Code. The first such examination shall take place not later than April 1, 2016 and other examinations shall take place at such time or times requested by the Commissioner, but not later than December 31, 2022. Such examinations shall proceed even if one or more individuals who took a prior examination have appealed an adverse determination and one or more 1 of such appeals have not concluded ...[This is strong pressure on the Office of Personnel Management to assure that enough Administrative Law Judge candidates are available to be hired by Social Security. Why do I suspect that this problem won't go away?]