Prove Me Wrong

 

    Let’s imagine a scenario. Donald Trump is elected President.  A year later Trump issues an “executive order” (he’s big on those) saying that henceforth only U.S. citizens are eligible for Social Security benefits. This is to “save” Social Security. The order is blatantly illegal. Statutes and U.S. treaties make legal immigrants eligible for benefits.  The order is no great surprise. Trump has already ordered the arrest of political opponents and ordered the Department of Justice to ignore court orders for their release. He’s already ordered a complete end to refugee admissions across the U.S. borders, which also violates U.S. law and treaties and ordered the Department of Homeland Security to ignore court orders to admit refugees. He’s ordered the Army to suppress peaceful demonstrations. Court orders, even habeas corpus, are routinely ignored in the second Trump Administration. If you don’t know what habeas corpus is, just take it from a lawyer, if there’s no habeas corpus, no one has any rights whatsoever. When government employees have protested all the illegality, the Trump Administration has had two responses. First, don’t worry, I’ll give everyone involved a pardon so you won't get into trouble. Second, either do it or you’re fired since Civil Service protections will have long since been removed from all federal employees.

     So, what are you going to do if you’re a Social Security employee ordered to implement a blatantly illegal order? Pretend that if the President orders it, that it can’t be that illegal? Try to drag your feet? Tell yourself that you only have a small role in the process so what you do doesn't matter. Refuse to be concerned about it since you have no non-citizen friends or family? Implement the order because you like the policy even if it's illegal? Refuse to implement the order and get fired? Quit your job so you don’t have to implement the illegal order? 

     In general, I have enormous sympathy for Social Security employees but on this I expect that few of you will have the courage to quit or court firing.  Prove me wrong but I can hear you now. “I’ve got a family to feed.” “Refusing to implement the illegal order will do no good. If I don’t do it, someone else will.” “I’m not a lawyer. I don’t know what the law is.” “I was just following orders.”

     I doubt this exact scenario will happen but somewhat less dramatic illegality is almost certain. Trump is already saying he'll end citizenship for children born in the U.S. to parents who are in the U.S. illegally. That's a clear violation of the 14th Amendment. The obvious first step in ending birthright citizenship would be to deny Social Security cards to children born in the U.S. to those present in the country illegally. Would you want to implement a cruel policy that's clearly illegal?

Drain The Trust Funds

     From the Washington Post:

A new report projects that the Social Security Trust Fund might run out of money within six years under a Donald Trump presidency, while Vice President Kamala Harris’s proposed policies would not meaningfully change the current trajectory.

Social Security faces a looming funding crisis in an aging country, with trustees most recently predicting that the retirement and disability program’s trust fund will become insolvent in 2035. Many of Trump’s campaign proposals would accelerate that timeline, potentially by years, said the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a nonpartisan group that opposes large federal deficits.

In a report released Monday, the organization concluded that many of Trump’s proposed second-term agenda items all work in the same direction when it comes to the Social Security Trust Fund. The budget group did not produce a similar report on Harris’s policies because they would have a negligible effect measured only in weeks or months rather than years, said Marc Goldwein, CRFB’s senior policy director. ...

Most directly, Trump has promised that no Social Security recipients should have to pay federal income taxes on their benefits. Under current law, 40 percent of beneficiaries pay taxes on some portion of their Social Security. The tax they pay on their benefits goes directly back to the trust fund, and getting rid of it could cost the program almost $1 trillion over 10 years, the report forecast.

Other Trump policies might have indirect effects. Trump’s pledge to deport millions of undocumented workers could cost the trust fund hundreds of millions of dollars, the CRFB said. Many undocumented immigrants have payroll taxes taken out of their paychecks for the Social Security Trust Fund, but never become eligible to claim benefits, so they are a net positive for the program. ...

 

Immigrants Help Social Security Trust Funds

     From The Hill writing about Tuesday's hearing before the House Social Security Subcommittee on future funding of Social Security benefits:

“The immigration surge, we project from 2021 to 2026, will result in about $1 trillion in additional revenue” over a ten year period, Dr. Phillip Swagel, director of the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) told lawmakers during a Tuesday hearing. ...

Republicans — including former president and presidential candidate Donald Trump — have increasingly pointed to immigration as a drain on social safety nets for the elderly in recent months, including Social Security and Medicare. 

Top budgetary experts bucked those claims during Tuesday’s panel as they argued immigrants could have a positive impact on Social Security.  ...

Rep. Ron Estes (R-Kan.) pressed [Stephen] Goss [Social Security's Chief Actuary] on whether the SSA accounted for the “impact of illegal immigrants” in their yearly report.

“Absolutely, we always have,” Goss responded. “The bottom line really is that immigration of any form is actually a positive in the realm we are now where the birth rates in the country are as low as they are.” ...

    Isn't it obvious that illegal immigrants help the Social Security trust funds? They contribute but can't get anything in return. Of course, this won't be obvious if you believe that illegal immigrants are just "given" Social Security benefits as soon as they arrive but, of course, that's a myth believed only by the credulous.

Surprise!

     From Yahoo Finance:

He lived a complete life in the U.S. He went to school, worked in law enforcement, got married, raised a family, paid his taxes and voted in elections.

But in 2020 — when Klass [oddly the article never mentions Klass' first name] was gearing down to live out his retirement in Clearwater, Florida — one of the benefits of a post-working life he thought that he earned was suddenly ripped away from him.

 Klass received a shocking letter from the Social Security Administration (SSA) stating he would not be sent the $1,649.90 monthly retirement benefits he’d previously been approved for because he’s not actually a U.S. citizen. ...

Klass was born in Canada. His mom was Canadian and his father was American, born and raised in New York. The family moved to the U.S. in 1959, and Klass has lived in the country ever since — believing he was a dual citizen.

He told the news station his roots were never questioned when he secured critical pieces of ID, including his Social Security card, driver’s license and voter registration card. He was approved to serve as a marine in the U.S. military and later worked for the New Jersey state police. He says his citizenship status was never questioned.

“I’ve been voting for over 40 years,” he chuckled, adding: “I guess I’m in a lot of trouble.”  ...

    I've had a client who was in a similar situation -- born in France to a woman who then married a U.S. citizen. The family moved to the U.S. when the child was stil quite young. The parents were supposed to file some paperwork so the child would officially be a U.S. citizen but they never got around to it. The child was unaware of the problem until Social Security discovered it and denied benefits.

    By the way, should this foreigner be locked up for voting all those times in the U.S.?

The Only Real Fix For Social Security Is More Babies?

What about more people like these taking the citizenship oath?

     Megan McArdle writes for the Washington Post that "The only real fix to Social Security’s [long term funding] problems? More babies."

    More babies would certainly help but only in the long run. It may be literally impossible for the government to get women to have more babies, anyway. Fertility is a deep cultural thing which may be beyond any incentives the government can provide. Even if you can figure out a way to increase fertility it would be at least a couple of decades before it would help.

    In any case, more babies isn't the only solution. The other solution is increased immigration. That gives an immediate increase in the working age population. Also, for literally centuries, the U.S. economy has been invigorated by the contributions of immigrants. They're good for the U.S. The problem with increased immigration is that those who most want to immigrate to the U.S. tend to be black or brown which enrages a significant portion of the existing population.

Social Security’s Immigration Problem

      You often hear about the terrible problems that immigrants cause for Social Security. They just GIVE them Social Security as soon as they cross the border! It’s killing Social Security! 

     The Motley Fool has an article up about the immigration problem that’s hurting Social Security — not enough immigrants.

Social Security’s Immigration Problem

      From the Motley Fool:

… Look at social media message boards, and you'll find one commonly repeated viewpoint: That undocumented workers receiving benefits are to blame for Social Security's financial shortcomings. Immigration into the U.S., in general, seems to be a regular scapegoat for why America's top retirement program is struggling.

But this school of thought couldn't be more wrong.

Social Security's problem isn't that too many immigrants are flocking to the United States. Rather, it's that net-legal immigration has been declining for a quarter of a century. Since 1998, the net migration rate into the U.S. has fallen every single year, and is down by an aggregate of 57%, according to data from the United Nations. 

Most people legally migrating to the U.S. tend to be younger, which is an extremely important point. These are people who will spend decades in the labor force contributing to Social Security via the payroll tax. The 12.4% payroll tax on earned income (wages and salary) was responsible for providing approximately $981 billion (90.1%) of the $1.088 trillion in revenue Social Security collected in 2021. 

The intermediate-cost model in the 2022 Trustees Report -- the "intermediate-cost model" is what the Trustees view as the outcome likeliest to happen -- is based on average annual total net immigration of 1,246,000 people.  Between July 1, 2012, and June 30, 2017, fewer than 955,000 total net migrants entered the U.S. annually, according to data from the World Bank.  If net migration into the U.S. continues to fall, or even steadies at these reduced levels, it's all but a certainty that Social Security's funding shortfall will grow. …

Legal Immigrants Can Now Get Green Card And Social Security Card At The Same Time

      From the Miami Herald:

One of the first things immigrants in the United States often do right after becoming legal permanent residents is go to a Social Security Administration office to get a new Social Security number or card replacement, which allows its holder to work anywhere in the country without conditions. 

 But starting now, for the first time, all new lawful permanent residents will have a chance to avoid this dual process.

The Biden administration announced on Monday a partnership between the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) and the Social Security Administration (SSA) that will allow immigrants to apply for their residence or green cards, as well as their Social Security number (SSN) in one fell swoop. ...

Read more here: https://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/immigration/article253399675.html#storylink=cpy

Read more here: https://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/immigration/article253399675.html#storylink=cpy

Agency Failed To Cut Off Benefits For Some Aliens -- Also, What's RETAP?

     From a recent report by Social Security's Office of Inspector General (OIG):

... If a family member of a wage earner is eligible for OASDI [Old Age, Survivors and Disability Insurance] benefits and is not a U.S. citizen, he/she may need to meet a 5-year residency requirement. To fulfill the residency requirement, the beneficiary must establish a physical residence in the United States, while in a qualifying relationship with the wage earner, with the intent to reside for a cumulative period of at least 5 years. SSA uses the automated Regular Transcript Attainment and Selection Pass (RETAP) process to prompt benefit suspension for non-citizen beneficiaries who have not meet their 5-year residency requirement and have been outside the United States for longer than 6 consecutive months. ... 

Of the 200 non-citizen beneficiaries we reviewed, SSA did not properly suspend benefits to 26 (13 percent). SSA should have suspended these beneficiaries because they had not met their 5-year residency requirement and lived outside the United States for longer than 6 consecutive months. Of the 26 beneficiaries, 23 met the criteria for the RETAP process to prompt benefit suspension. However, RETAP did not identify these beneficiaries for suspension. According to SSA, a RETAP programming limitation prevented these beneficiaries from being identified for benefit suspension. SSA employees omitted information from the remaining three beneficiaries’ Master Beneficiary Records required for RETAP to prompt benefit suspensions. 

By not appropriately suspending benefits, SSA overpaid these 26 beneficiaries approximately $332,000. Accordingly, we project SSA overpaid nearly $29 million to approximately 2,300 non-citizen OASDI beneficiaries. ...

     Is RETAP a State Department database?

We Need More Immigration, Not Less

This appears to be expressed as a percentage of GDP

Are Undocumented Immigrants Such A Bad Thing?

     Those nasty undocumented immigrants that Donald Trump wants to keep out of this country with a fence are actually contributing about $13 billion a year to the Social Security trust funds. Why exactly is it crucial that we hunt down and deport all of these immigrants when the U.S. birth rate is so low?

SSA Wants To Remove Inability To Communicate In English As Factor In Disability Determination

     The Social Security Administration has asked the Office of Management and Budget to authorize the publication of proposed regulations on Removing Inability to Communicate in English as an Education Category. If approved by OMB, the proposed changes would be published in the Federal Register and the public could comment. Social Security could then consider the comments before asking OMB to authorize the publication of final regulations. Here's Social Security's summary of the proposal:

We propose to revise existing disability evaluation rules relating to the ability to communicate in English.  Specifically, we will clarify that an inability to communicate in English is not tantamount to illiteracy or inadequate verbal communication.  Rather, an inability to communicate adequately verbally or in writing in any language will be the effective standard.   The proposed revisions will reflect current research, analysis of our disability program data, Federal agency data about workforce participation, and comments we received from the public in response to an Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking.

     If you think this proposal is based upon "research" instead of rampant Republican racism and nativism, you're naive. Inability to communicate in English remains a serious obstacle to work particularly when added to other obstacles caused by illness.
     This is one of several proposals that may not advance if Democrats gain control of the House of Representatives in November.

Immigration Helps Social Security

From Vox

Is It Any Different In The U.S.?

     From The Local Europe Italy AB:

Italy needs more migrants in order to pay for the population's pensions, the country's social security chief said Wednesday, drawing the ire of anti-immigration interior minister Matteo Salvini. 

If we halved migratory flows "in five years we would lose population equivalent to that of Turin", Boeri said referring to the country's important northern industrial hub.

If immigration were reduced to zero we would lose "700,000 people under 34 years of age in the space of one parliamentary mandate", he told the lower house of parliament.

Italy is suffering a demographic decline with one of the lowest birthrates in Europe. Boeri said he was concerned that "no one seems to care" about this decline in Italy and recommended maintaining a flow of legal migration, which alone, he said, could ensure the balance of Italy's pension fund. ...

Immigrants Less Likely To Receive Social Security Disability

     From a press release:

No matter where they came from, people born outside the United States but working here are much less likely to receive Social Security Disability Insurance benefits than those born in the U.S. or its territories. Foreign-born adults, according to a study published in the December issue of the journal Demography, are less likely to report health-related impediments to working, to be covered by work-disability insurance, and to apply for disability benefits.

The researchers used data from the American Community Survey (ACS) to determine the prevalence of work disability and records from the Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI) program to determine the incidence. They found that over the ten-year period from 2001 to 2010, about 6.56 people per thousand born in the U.S. received benefits through the SSDI program.

Foreign-born individuals make up about 13 percent of the U.S. population, and a somewhat larger proportion (16.7 percent) of the U.S. labor force. They are, however, significantly less likely to report work disability and to receive work disability benefits. The researchers found that only 4.16 per thousand foreign-born men and 4.36 per thousand foreign-born women were approved for benefits. ...

     I don't think this means much. Many of the native born Americans who end up receiving Social Security disability benefits have health problems that were coming on for a long time, sometimes since birth. People who emigrate are unlikely to have serious, chronic health problems at the time they emigrate. If they had been sick, they probably would have stayed in their native countries. The addition of healthy productive workers is one of the many ways that America benefits from immigration.

Wait Until Trump Hears About This -- Social Security Helping Foreigners Work In U.S.

     From the Cape Cod Times:

The Social Security Administration will have satellite locations set up in Orleans and Provincetown starting Wednesday to help J-1 and H-2B seasonal workers finalize their applications before they begin working at local businesses. ...   

“Seasonal workers must obtain a Social Security number before working in the United States, and the Cape Cod Chamber (of Commerce) has worked on behalf of its member businesses to implement special remote locations to assist with their overall business operations and the time it takes to travel to Hyannis to fulfill Social Security requirements,” a statement from the chamber says.

Let Me Tell You A Story

     Let me tell you about a client. I'll change a few minor details to protect her identity but nothing that affects the account in a material way. We'll call my client Greta. Greta's mother was a German national. Her father was a U.S soldier stationed in Germany. Greta's mother didn't marry Greta's natural father. However, Greta's mother later married another U.S. soldier and moved to the United States with Greta when Greta was four. Greta hasn't been back to Germany since. She doesn't remember being there. She wonders whether a trip back to Germany would rekindle some memories. She speaks no German. She went to school in the United States. She got a Social Security card. She worked in the United States. She married and had children in the United States. She never tried to register to vote because she just wasn't interested. She never tried to get a passport because she didn't have the money to travel outside the country. There was never a problem until Greta applied for Social Security retirement benefits. At that point, it was discovered that Greta wasn't a citizen. What's more, she didn't have a green card. Although Greta came to the United States legally, she had become an illegal immigrant because the proper steps hadn't been taken to regularize her immigration status. This amazed Greta. She knew she was born in Germany but thought she had become an American citizen when she was a child. That's what should have happened. It would have been easy but her parents never did what they needed to do. While Greta has enough quarters of coverage to get Social Security retirement benefits, she can't be paid until Greta sorts out her immigration status with the Immigration and Naturalization Service (INS). This will be done. INS isn't being difficult. They're sympathetic. They agree that she deserves a green card. She may even be entitled to citizenship without the normal formalities because she was brought to the United States as a child by her U.S. citizen stepfather. However, the INS is slow. Sorting this out will take well over a year.

     Donald Trump wants to throw all illegal immigrants out of the country. At the moment Greta is an illegal immigrant. Do you want to round up Greta, put her in detention and then deport her to Germany? Do you want to punish her for the negligence of her parents more than 50 years ago? Greta wasn't born in Mexico but what if she had been and had been brought to the U.S. by a stepfather who was a U.S. citizen? Would that affect how you feel about the situation?

To No One's Surprise Trump Lies About Social Security

     From the Washington Post:

The Donald Trump campaign released its first political ad of the general election, focused on immigration. It begins with a hypothetical situation of what immigration would look like under Democrat Hillary Clinton’s America. 

The narrator says: “In Hillary Clinton’s America, the system stays rigged against Americans. Syrian refugees flood in. Illegal immigrants convicted of committing crimes get to stay. Collecting Social Security benefits, skipping the line. Our border open. It’s more of the same, but worse.”  

Is the claim about undocumented immigrants collecting Social Security benefits accurate? ...

Unauthorized immigrants, who are not granted any deferred-action status, are not eligible to receive Social Security benefits or any other federal means-tested benefits. But they pay taxes and pay into the Social Security system. 

Even though the majority of unauthorized immigrants can’t collect the benefits, they paid about $12 billion into the cash flow of the Social Security program in 2010, according to the Social Security actuary. (Some undocumented immigrants could theoretically collect benefits — illegally — if they’ve overstayed their visas or falsely obtained a Social Security number.) That means the U.S. government gets far more than it pays out when it comes to unauthorized immigrants. ...

For Those Who Believe That Illegal Immigrants Will Bankrupt Social Security

     From VICE News:

Unauthorized workers are paying an estimated $13 billion a year in social security taxes and only getting around $1 billion back, according to a senior government statistician.

Stephen Goss, the chief actuary of the Social Security Administration (SSA), told VICE News that an estimated 7 million people are currently working in the US illegally. Of those, he estimates that about 3.1 million are using fake or expired social security numbers, yet also paying automatic payroll taxes. Goss believes that these workers pay an annual net contribution of $12 billion to the Social Security Trust Fund.

The SSA estimates that unauthorized workers have paid a whopping $100 billion into the fund over the past decade. Yet as these people are in the US illegally, it is unlikely that they will be able to benefit from their contributions later in life.