BLS Recalling Staff So Social Security COLA Can Be Computed

      From CNN:

The Bureau of Labor Statistics is calling some staff back to work to prepare its closely watched inflation gauge, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, despite the government shutdown, a Trump administration official told CNN.

The latest CPI data was previously scheduled for release on October 15. It’s unclear whether the report will still be released next week or delayed amid the shutdown. The Trump official told CNN that the data would be published before November 1, since that is the deadline to publish the annual increase for Social Security payments. The September CPI data is needed to calculate that adjustment. …

BLS Operations To Suspend Due To Government Shutdown

      From the New York Times:

… The Bureau of Labor Statistics, which produces the monthly jobs data, will “suspend all operations” if Congress and the president fail to reach a deal to extend funding for the federal government before a Tuesday midnight deadline, according to a contingency plan released by the Department of Labor. Data releases scheduled during a government shutdown “will not be released,” and data collection for future reports will cease, the memo said. …

     So, why does this matter for Social Security? The annual Cost of Living Adjustment (COLA) for Social Security would ordinarily be announced soon after the BLS report due this week. That will have to be delayed. We have until December for this, so there’s time. However, future COLAs could become unreliable due to the gap in BLS data collection. Is it even possible for them to ever catch up? Their staffing levels have also been cut.  I don’t think BLS was affected like this in prior government shutdowns. 

BLS And SSA

 

    You’ve probably heard that the President has fired the Director of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) after receiving a disappointing report from BLS on job growth in the U.S. He claimed that the Director had “rigged” the report to hurt him. There is now clear reason to fear that future job growth reports will be manipulated or outright falsified to please the President. Job growth is certainly important to Social Security. The more jobs, the more FICA money coming in to the Trust Funds. However, statistical reports on job growth themselves aren’t important to recipients of Social Security benefits. However, other statistics generated by BLS are — the cost of living numbers. The President has claimed that the Trump tariffs won’t increase inflation. Will BLS now be willing to issue reports showing a significant increase in the cost of living? The President would probably be more upset at significant increases in the cost of living than with disappointing job growth numbers. Will he insist that the books be cooked to show low inflation even if that’s not what’s happening? If he does, Social Security’s Cost Of Living Adjustment (COLA) will cheat Social Security recipients. That wouldn’t be popular.  So, what’s happened at BLS is pretty important to Social Security. Keep an eye on it.