No Government Shutdown

      There won’t be a government shutdown because Senate Democrats are craven cowards.

WEP/GPO Bill Advances While Government Shutdown Looms

     The Hill reports that the bill to end the Windfall Elimination Provision and the Government Pension Offset passed a crucial vote in the Senate yesterday 73-27. This isn’t final passage but the margin suggests that the bill is likely to pass. It has already been passed the House of Representatives.

    In other legislative news, President-elect Trump seems to be ordering a government shutdown. At least he’s ordering Republican legislators not to vote for the Continuing Resolution they just negotiated with Democrats. The GOP can’t pass the CR without Democratic votes in this Congress and probably not in the next. Most of Social Security will stay open if the shutdown happens beginning December 20 but there would be no money to continue paying salaries for long. I have no idea what the endgame is here. 

     If you voted for Trump, this is the chaos you voted for.

The Appropriations Situation

 

    From Yahoo News:

As Republicans start laying out their proposals for what spending to cut next year, Social Security Administration employees are warning that their budget could mean longer wait times and potentially dire circumstances for beneficiaries.

In a letter to the House Appropriations Committee, the American Federation of Government Employees — a union representing hundreds of thousands of government employees — said that the GOP's proposed funding levels would "devastate the agency's ability to serve the American public."

Republicans on the committee released their Labor, Health and Human Services, Education, and Related Agencies Appropriations Bill last week, including a $183 million cut to the Social Security Administration.

The union warned that the already underfunded agency could see its standing issues, like long wait times for accessing benefits and long lines at its offices, only worsen. As of June 2023, the average wait time for callers to Social Security's customer service and information number was a little over 43 minutes, per the Social Security Administration's data. ...

    I think that we should not worry too much about what the House Appropriations Committee is doing now. The bill they're working on is absurd for many, many reasons that go way beyond Social Security. I'm not sure the bill could get a majority vote in the House of Representatives. It's a non-starter with the Senate and the President. A government shutdown would be a far superior outcome. Nothing like that bill is going anywhere.

    I see three possible outcomes:

• Republicans eventually decide to vote out an appropriations bill based upon the previous agreement between the President and the Speaker of the House. Differences are sorted out between the Senate and House and the President signs the bill. We don't seem to be heading in this direction.
• There's no agreement on a Labor-HHS appropriations bill (which includes Social Security's administrative budget) and we see endless continuing resolutions for the entire fiscal year. This hurts Social Security but there are worse possibilities. I think this is the most likely outcome but what do I know?
• There's no agreement and the House of Representatives is so dysfunctional that it can't pass a continuing resolution so there's a government shutdown. This would be politically disastrous for Republicans but, hey, if you're a Republican members of Congress from a district that Donald Trump carried by 30 point in 2020 (like most House Freedom Caucus members), what do you care? Your constituents expect you to be as obstreperous as possible. They're in the "Keep Government Out Of My Medicare" camp.
  

Updated Government Shutdown Plan

      Here’s Social Security’s newly updated plan for a government shutdown. There would be no immediate disruption for the public but, still, let’s hope this doesn’t need to be used.

Social Security Unlikely To Be Much Affected By Possible Government Shutdown

      There is talk of a partial government shutdown beginning on October 1. I hope this doesn't come to pass but if it does there should be little immediate impact at Social Security. Below is Social Security's government shutdown plan from the last time this issue came up. The plan could have been updated a bit since then but I strongly doubt that there's been a major change.

     Click on each thumbnail to view the page full size.

Can Social Security Maintain Building Security During The Partial Government Shutdown?

     I've posted here that Social Security will be unaffected by the partial government shutdown. It occurs to me that I may have been overbroad. The problem is building security. That's mostly provided by the Federal Protective Service (FPS), which is part of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and DHS is part of the shutdown. The FPS security guards at Social Security offices missed a paycheck today. They'll miss another in another two weeks. They're not going to continue working forever for free. Also, there are some Social Security offices that are located inside federal courthouses. While FPS may provide security guards within the Social Security offices inside federal courthouses, the U.S. Marshall Service provides security at the building entrances. The U.S. Marshall Service is part of the Department of Justice and it, too, is part of the partial government shutdown. The federal courts themselves are also part of the government shutdown and will close for routine business a week from today. Will the U.S. Marshall Service continue to provide building security for federal courthouses when the courts, themselves, are closed, especially given that the Marshall's Service has more urgent tasks to complete?

Exactly The Reaction The GOP Hopes For

     Mark Wohlander writes for Kentucky Today about his struggles trying to deal with Social Security, both online and by telephone. I would say that the poor service he received is proof that the Social Security Administration is underfunded and understaffed. Mr. Wohlander, however, sees it as proof that it’s a good thing there is a government shutdown, because, well, if the government can’t do a better job than this, who needs it?

     There are signs in this piece that Mr. Wohlander is a bit confused. First, he thinks that the Social Security Administration has been shut down. Not so. It’s only a part of government that’s been shut down and that part doesn’t include Social Security. He also thinks that the government shutdown has occurred because there isn’t enough money to pay for government operations. Again, not so. The money is there but there is a dispute between President Trump and Congress over how to spend it, specifically over about $5 billion that the President wants for his wall. Congress doesn’t want the wall and it’s not just Democrats in Congress who don’t want the wall. Republicans aren’t too interested in it either. Mr. Wohlander also swallows age old Republican propaganda about how he’ll never receive his Social Security benefits because the money has been “stolen.” This is what passes for a thoughtful piece in a red state.

No Government Shutdown For Social Security

     In case you were wondering, the "government shutdown" that the President is threatening in order to get his wall is only a partial shutdown. Most of the government, including the Social Security Administration, is not affected because the appropriations bills covering those agencies have already been passed by Congress and signed by the President. This is one of the many facts that contribute to the President's weak position. There's also the facts that most voters don't want the wall, Republican members of Congress are, at best, lukewarm on the wall, and Democrats will control the House of Representatives in less than two weeks. Also, the President is generally quite unpopular and even Republican members of Congress are dismayed by many of the President's recent actions, such as the withdrawal from Syria. I suppose it won't dawn on it until he hears it from Fox and Friends or Vladimir Putin but Trump has little leverage on anything that involves Congress apart from judicial appointments.

Discouraging Status Of FY Appropriation

     Congressional work on the appropriations bills needed to fund the government in Fiscal Year (FY) 2019, which begins on October 1, 2018, has proceeded along what used to be a normal track, with each House of Congress passing separate appropriations bills for broad sectors of the government with differences to be ironed out in a conference committee. The conference committee hasn't finished its work. I'm not sure it's even been appointed but things are far ahead of recent years where agencies worked on continuing resolutions (CRs) well into the new fiscal year and sometimes for the entire fiscal year.

     This does not mean that there will be no government shutdown or prolonged CR this time around. Congress can only do so much. There's another branch of government whose headquarter is at the other end of Pennsylvania Avenue. Some experts think there will be a government shutdown, mostly over the President's insistence on tens of billions of dollars in funding for a border wall. Even most Republicans aren't eager for that wall, much less a government shutdown over it, but the President believes it vitally important. He may even think it's just what he needs to get Republican voters out to the polls in November. I'd call that nuts but I'm not a Republican voter.

     Whenever an appropriation bill gets passed, it's almost certain to be bad news for Social Security. Both the House and Senate passed appropriations bills give the Social Security Administration $11 billion in operating funds, which is what the President requested, but which is $400 million below the appropriation for the current fiscal year. The cut is even worse than it sounds, however. You have to consider inflation which is about 2.9%. Social Security needed an increase of about $330 million just to stay even. The agency will effectually receive a 6.4% cut in its operating budget. That's going to hurt.

     If you want the best case scenario, it would be that despite the appropriations progress already made, we'll still end up with a CR and that the CR will extend past the start of the new Congress next January and that Democrats will control one or both Houses of Congress which will allow them to make demands with a higher appropriation for Social Security being one of their demands. I don't think that's going to happen. If nothing else, Democrats winning one or both Houses of Congress would concentrate the attention of Republicans who would rush to enact appropriations bills before their power diminishes.

When Will The Budget Drama End?

     The federal government is operating on a Continuing Resolution (CR) that funds government operations only through next Friday, March 23. Unless something is passed before then the entire federal government, including Social Security, will shut down. 

     Congress is working on an omnibus funding bill to fund all of the federal government through the rest of the fiscal year. In more normal times, this is done with a series of bills covering different parts of the federal government. 

     There are still disagreements over the omnibus and some predictions that another short CR will be needed. 

     The current draft or drafts of this bill have not been released to the public. There's no definite sign that Social Security's appropriation is in dispute but we can't be sure. 

     The AARP has just sent a letter to Congressional leaders asking for higher administrative funding so they must think something is still up in the air.

To Be Continued

     That big Senate bill that settles all budget matters for the next two years that you've been reading about -- it's not quite what it's advertised to be. For one thing, it actually only funds the government through March 23. For another, it's only a budget bill. Budget bills only set top line limits. They don't specify what each agency gets. That's done in appropriations bills. There could easily be a partial government shutdown over one or more of the appropriations bills and the Labor-HHS appropriations bill that includes Social Security is always the most contentious of the appropriations bills. So, we don't know how much Social Security will get and we can't say that the threat of a government shutdown affecting Social Security has passed.

Shutdown Ends

     The Senate has voted for a new continuing resolution that will reopen the government. I think the bill might have to go back to the House of Representatives for further action and to the President for a signature but those would be formalities. This shutdown is all but over.

Shutdown

     I posted Social Security's shutdown plan on Saturday, the day of the shutdown. Let me post it again. Click on each thumbnail to view full size.

     By the way, my office called one of Social Security's local field offices today about an attorney fee issue today. It was a situation where the award certificate said the fee was to be one amount but we were paid about $1,000 less. We were trying to find out whether there was some good reason why this happened. We were told "Sorry, but during the shutdown we're not allowed to discuss attorney fees issues." I don't think that should be accurate. Attorney fees are just part of the process that pays the claimant and those payments are being made. If Social Security failed to pay the attorney properly, there's a good chance they've also failed to pay the claimant properly. Has anyone seen or heard instructions on this or other shutdown issues?

Interesting

    Unlike Social Security, the Department of Veterans Affairs will stop processing new claims for benefits during the federal shutdown.

     I've said it before. Keeping the most visible parts of federal agencies open during federal shutdowns reduces the political costs of shutdowns, making them more likely to happen and longer when they do come. If everything other than prisons, law enforcement and the Military were shut down, we wouldn't have shutdowns. Stop the Treasury from paying contractors and see what happens. Just shut down air traffic control and see what happens.

Social Security's Shutdown Plan

     We're now in a federal government shutdown. Here's Social Security's shutdown plan. Click on each thumbnail to view full size.
     The two things I notice is that this time almost all of the Office of Hearings Operations (OHO) will stay open but that almost all of the Office of General Counsel (OGC) will shut down. Last time both mostly shut down but were eventually called back in.

     I'm mostly glad to see OHO stay open. However, there's a part of me that says that ameliorating the effects of a shutdown like this makes the shutdown longer. If virtually the entire federal establishment were actually shut down, the shutdowns would be rare and brief. 

     The OGC shutdown is more of a problem than you might think. Social Security is subject to deadlines in federal court litigation. OGC has enough of a problem meeting these deadlines in the best of times. Federal judges are not as sympathetic to the agency's shutdown problem as you might think. The judges, their staffs and the clerks offices always keep working during these shutdowns. They can't see why OGC would shut down. 

Acting Commissioner's Message On Possible Government Shutdown

From: ^Commissioner Broadcast
Sent: Friday, January 19, 2018 10:37 AM
Subject: Planning for Potential Lapse in Funding

A Message to All SSA Employees

Subject: Planning for Potential Lapse in Funding

As many of you are aware, annual funding for the government expires on January 19.  The Executive Branch does not believe it is necessary for a lapse in funding to occur, and looks forward to working with the Congress to finalize appropriations for this year.

However, prudent management requires that we be prepared for all contingencies, including the possibility that a lapse could occur.  A lapse would mean that a number of government activities would cease due to a lack of appropriated funding, and that a number of employees would be temporarily furloughed.  To prepare for this possibility, we are working to update our contingency plans for executing an orderly shutdown of activities that would be affected by a lapse in appropriations. 

Thank you for your hard work, dedication, and patience through this process, and for all that you do for the Social Security Administration and the American people.

Nancy A. Berryhill
Acting Commissioner

In Case Of A Government Shutdown

     Even though Republicans control the House, the Senate and the White House there's a risk of a government shutdown at midnight Friday.  Money Magazine talks about what happened at Social Security the last time this happened:

In 2013, the Social Security Administration delayed 1,600 medical disability reviews and 10,000 Supplemental Security Income redeterminations on each day of the shutdown, a government report found.

Threat Of A Shutdown

     The federal government will shut down tomorrow if Congress cannot agree on a continuing resolution to fund the government. 

     The last time there was a shutdown, which was just last year, almost all Social Security employees were told to keep working. The major exceptions were employees of the Office of Disability Adjudication and Review (ODAR) other than the Administrative Law Judges (ALJs) and most of the Office of General Counsel (OGC). Even without passage of a funding bill almost all the ODAR employees were recalled. The OGC employees were recalled just before passage of the continuing resolution. Social Security asked the state Disability Determination Services (DDS) to stay open and they did for a time but some started closing down as the shutdown continued. 

     I expect that Social Security employees were told today whether they should come to work tomorrow if there's a shutdown. What's the plan this time in case there's a shutdown?

     By the way, when's the next federal payday? If the shutdown, if it happens, is still going on at that time, no paychecks can be issued even for employees who have been told to work.

Congressional Leaders Reported To Be Close To Budget Deal

     Politico reports that Congressional leaders are close to a budget deal that would avoid another shutdown. The deal would include additional revenue from fee increases and would replace about $80 billion in sequester cuts over the next two years. Changes in federal retirement benefits may be part of the deal. The reductions in the sequester cuts would be evenly divided between defense and domestic spending. It's too early to say whether there would be any additional or increased Social Security fees or whether the Social Security Administration would get some sequestration relief.

Partial Shutdown At Social Security Threatned Life Of SC Man

     From The State of Columbia, SC:

Saturday almost ushered in David White’s last dose of Tasigna, a pill he was receiving free of charge to treat his chronic myeloid leukemia.

The 31-year-old Beaufort resident was participating in a clinical trial with drug maker Novartis, and he qualified for more of the $2,300-per-month drug — if he could prove his date of eligibility for Medicare. That day falls in August 2014, two years after White’s illness forced him to file for disability.

As proof, Novartis required an official document from the Social Security Administration, at a time when the agency was severely slowed by a 16-day, partial government shutdown.
It was only once the shutdown ended, following Congress’ vote to fund the government through Jan. 15, that White got what he needed to secure his lifesaving treatments.

Read more here: http://www.thestate.com/2013/10/18/3046085/shutdown-threatened-lifesaving.html#storylink=cpy