Retirement Trust Fund Depletion Date Advanced By Three Calendar Quarters

    From the report by Social Security's Trustees on the state of the trust funds:

• ... The Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) Trust Fund will be able to pay 100 percent of total scheduled benefits until 2033, unchanged from last year’s report. At that time, the fund’s reserves will become depleted and continuing program income will be sufficient to pay 77 percent of total scheduled benefits.
• The Disability Insurance (DI) Trust Fund is projected to be able to pay 100 percent of total scheduled benefits through at least 2099, the last year of this report’s projection period. Last year’s report projected that the DI Trust Fund would be able to pay scheduled benefits through at least 2098, the last year of that report’s projection period.
• If the OASI Trust Fund and the DI Trust Fund projections were combined, the resulting projected fund (designated OASDI) would be able to pay 100 percent of total scheduled benefits until 2034, one year earlier than reported last year. At that time, the projected fund’s reserves would become depleted, and continuing total fund income would be sufficient to pay 81 percent of scheduled benefits. (The two funds could not actually be combined unless there were a change in the law, but the combined projection of the two funds is frequently used to indicate the overall status of the Social Security program.)
• Although the OASI Trust Fund depletion year remains the same, both the OASI and OASDI depletion dates advanced by about 3 calendar quarters, relative to last year’s projection. ...

    The change in the depletion date is because of the effects of the WEP/GPO repeal. 

WEP/GPO Cases Prioritized

      From USA Today:

… Social Security Administration employees at processing centers generally prioritize new claims and appeals each day. In late May, employees at many of the nation's eight processing centers were told to put Social Security Fairness Act payments [to address WEP and GPO cases] at the top of their work list and were offered weekend overtime to get it done. …

A half-dozen employees at several of the nation's Social Security processing centers said they were told that the new commissioner wants all of the Social Security Fairness Act claims resolved by July 1, and that they also need to address a backlog of claims that has built up.  …

Employees who received the order said they were told they cannot help with non-priority issues like overpayment reconsideration, updating direct deposit information, checking on monthly payment rates, and Medicare billing related issues. …

The East Coast employee said he’s having to tell caller after caller that he cannot address their Social Security-related need for the next month, which results in both him and his manager being yelled at all day. …

It’s A Zero Sum Game

      From David Weaver writing for The Hill:

… The start-up administrative costs of the Social Security Fairness Act [which eliminated the Windfall Elimination Provision and Government Pension Offset] are plausibly about $200 million. When Congress was considering the full-year continuing resolution in March, it simply chose not to provide the Social Security Administration with sufficient funding to implement the law. As a result, Congress has created a zero-sum environment at the agency: additional service to one group means less service to another. 

In the months since enactment of the SSFA, the Social Security Administration has taken an additional 146,000 new benefit applications related to the new law. That means 146,000 other Americans did not have their applications considered. Additionally, the agency has had to field 450,000 calls (6,000-7,000 per day) from the public requiring agency staff to explain the new law and resolve benefit problems. That means 450,000 other Americans did not get their Social Security problems resolved.  

 

Most alarmingly, the agency’s automation efforts for retroactive payments fell short. Social Security indicated that automation would result in these payments being deposited in bank accounts “by the end of March.” After its automation runs in March, however, there were still 500,000 to 700,000 cases to be processed. These will have to be handled manually over time.   …

The Social Security Administration plans to prioritize this manual workload, but all that means is that up to 700,000 other Americans in the agency’s very large payment backlog will not have their benefit payments processed.  …

SSA Believes They Can Get Out “Most” WEP/GPO Payments By End Of March

      From a press release:

Today, the Social Security Administration announced it is immediately beginning to pay retroactive benefits and will increase monthly benefit payments to people whose benefits have been affected by the Windfall Elimination Provision (WEP) and Government Pension Offset (GPO). These provisions reduced or eliminated the Social Security benefits for over 3.2 million people who receive a pension based on work that was not covered by Social Security (a "non-covered pension") because they did not pay Social Security taxes. The Social Security Fairness Act ends WEP and GPO.  …

“The agency’s original estimate of taking a year or more now will only apply to complex cases that cannot be processed by automation. The American people deserve to get their due benefits as quickly as possible.”  …

Many beneficiaries will be due a retroactive payment because the WEP and GPO offset no longer apply as of January 2024. Most people will receive their one-time retroactive payment by the end of March, which will be deposited into their bank account on record with Social Security.

Many of these people will also receive higher monthly benefits, which will first be reflected in the benefit payment they receive in April. Depending on factors such as the type of Social Security benefit received and the amount of the person's pension, the change in payment amount will vary from person to person. 

Anyone whose monthly benefit is adjusted, or who will get a retroactive payment, will receive a mailed notice from Social Security explaining the benefit change or retroactive payment. Most people will receive their retroactive payment two to three weeks before they receive their notice in the mail, because the President understands how important it is to pay people what they are due right away. Social Security is expediting payments using automation and will continue to handle many complex cases that must be done manually, on an individual case-by-case basis. Those complex cases will take additional time to update the beneficiary record and pay the correct benefits. 

Social Security urges beneficiaries to wait until April to ask about the status of their retroactive payment, since these payments will process incrementally into March. Since the new monthly payment amount will begin with the April payment, beneficiaries should wait until after receiving their April payment, before contacting Social Security with questions about their monthly benefit amount. …

     Most could mean 51%. Just how many will require manual calculation? Where will the staff come from to do those manual calculations?

Early Out Questions

     The Trump Administration is offering early outs to federal employees. If they accept, they will be paid through September. This brings up some questions in my mind.

• Was this deal offered to all Social Security employees?
• Early outs have certainly been offered in the past. Is this deal different than what has been offered in the past?
• If this deal is being offered to payment center employees, does the Trump Administration have any idea of the problems that will be created at an agency already facing a massive challenge to implement the implementation of the WEP/GPO bill? And I don’t mean to suggest that other agency employees aren’t also essential.
• Does Frank Bisignano have any idea of the disaster he may inherit if he’s confirmed as Commissioner?

     I hate what may happen at Social Security but the antigovernment incompetents running things in the Trump Administration richly deserve what’s heading their way.

A Year To Implement WEP/GPO Repeal

 

    The Social Security Administration posted questions and answers on the implementation of the bill ending the Government Pension Offset and Windfall Elimination Provision on January 24 — after Inauguration Day. Here’s an excerpt:

… SSA's ability to implement the law in a timely manner and without negatively affecting day-to-day customer service relies on funding. The Act did not provide money to implement the law. The law requires SSA to adjust benefits for over 3 million people. Since the law's effective date is retroactive, SSA must adjust people's past benefits as well as future benefits. Though SSA is helping some affected beneficiaries now, under SSA's current budget, SSA expects that it could take more than one year to adjust benefits and pay all retroactive benefits.

Callers to SSA's National 800 Number hear a message about the Act. This message has helped tens of thousands of people avoid holding for a representative. However, more than 7,000 people each day still choose to wait to speak to a representative about the Act. These calls, as well as visitors and appointments in local offices, will continue to increase over the coming weeks and months.

Helping people with this new and unfunded workload is made more difficult by SSA's ongoing staffing shortages, including operating under a hiring freeze since November 2024. This hiring freeze is likely to continue. All SSA customers, including those not affected by the Act, will face delays and increased wait times as SSA prioritizes this new workload. …

I'm Glad There's A Serious Discussion Of This Issue

     From Twitter or officially "X."

GOP Asking Questions

      Ways and Means Republicans are asking questions about implementation of the WEP/GPO bill, including whether the agency needs more money to implement it. About time they start asking questions.

     By the way, I don’t see why this letter is only signed by Republicans other than the fact that almost all civility has broken down in the House of Representatives. 

Implementation Of WEP/GPO Elimination

     I've sorta asked the question before but never received what I thought was a definitive answer. To what extent will the elimination of WEP/GPO require manual recomputations? How much of this can be done through IT? These are important questions.

    If there will be manual recomputations, I'm going to be upset if they take priority over Social Security straightening out my clients' windfall offsets and workers compensation offsets and other such routine issues. The WEP/GPO people can take their turn in line like everybody else. If it takes six months or longer, and it will if these folks aren't granted priority, welcome to the reality of what the Social Security Administration is today.

And Finally The Discussions Of Practicalities Begin

      From The Hill:

 On Jan. 5, President Biden signed into law the Social Security Fairness Act, which will provide new or additional Social Security benefits for about 3 million individuals who receive government pensions from jobs not covered by Social Security. …

The Social Security Administration (SSA) will now need to quickly scramble and begin issuing large back payments to millions of individuals. 

Complicating the issue, SSA received its administrative budget via a continuing resolution with no provision for the potentially large start-up costs to implement the legislation. SSA’s administrative budget has been in sharp decline over several years, and the agency recently testified before Congress that it now has “one of the lowest staffing levels in 50 years.” 

It is unlikely SSA has the bandwidth to implement the new benefit structure seamlessly, quickly and correctly.

Biden To Sign WEP/GPO Bill Today

     The Associated Press is reporting that President Biden will sign into law today the bill to end the Windfall Elimination Provision and Government Pension Offset.

WEP/GPO Bill To Be Signed On Monday?

     The rumor is that the President will sign the bill ending the Windfall Elimination Provision and Government Pension Offset on Monday.

WEP/GPO Legislation Contains A Year Of Back Benefits

 

    The interesting wrinkle about the bill that will eliminate the Windfall Elimination Provision and the Government Pension Offset is that it’s retroactive. If President Biden signs the bill, and I’ve seen no indication that he won’t, it’s effective January 2024. Those who have been subjected to WEP or GPO will get back benefits going back to the beginning of this year. I’m surprised the back benefits part made it through the legislative process. 

WEP/GPO Bill Passes

      The bill to end the Windfall Elimination Provision and the Government Pension Offset has passed its final Congressional step and will become law once President Biden signs it.

     I have a few questions about this:

• What’s the effective date?
• Can Social Security implement this without manual recalculations?
• Were there any other provisions in the bill apart from WEP/GPO?

WEP/GPO Bill Advances While Government Shutdown Looms

     The Hill reports that the bill to end the Windfall Elimination Provision and the Government Pension Offset passed a crucial vote in the Senate yesterday 73-27. This isn’t final passage but the margin suggests that the bill is likely to pass. It has already been passed the House of Representatives.

    In other legislative news, President-elect Trump seems to be ordering a government shutdown. At least he’s ordering Republican legislators not to vote for the Continuing Resolution they just negotiated with Democrats. The GOP can’t pass the CR without Democratic votes in this Congress and probably not in the next. Most of Social Security will stay open if the shutdown happens beginning December 20 but there would be no money to continue paying salaries for long. I have no idea what the endgame is here. 

     If you voted for Trump, this is the chaos you voted for.

WEP/GPO Bill Expected To.Reach Senate Floor Today

      The bill to end the Windfall Elimination Provision and the Government Pension Offset, which has already passed the House of Representatives, is expected to reach the Senate floor today. 

Senate Vote Coming On WEP-GPO Bill

     Chuck Schumer, the Senate Democratic leader, has promised that there will be a vote on the bill to eliminate the Windfall Elimination Provision and Government Pension Offsets which reduce Social Security benefits for those receiving pension benefits not based upon earnings upon which there had been no FICA withheld. This is mostly former employees of state and local governments which did not pay the FICA tax. The bill has already passed the House of Representatives.

GPO And WEP Elimination Bill Passes House

      It happened quietly but the bill to end the Govern Pension Offset and Windfall Elimination Provision passed in the House of Representives Tuesday night. Its fate in the Senate is uncertain.

On Election Night House Freedom Caucus Uses Scheme To Stall Bill To Repeal WEP And GPO

     From Roll Call:

Members of the ultraconservative House Freedom Caucus orchestrated an unusual play on the House floor during a rare election night, 5 p.m. pro forma session that resulted in killing, at least for now, a broadly popular bill that was set to hit the floor as soon as next week.

Reps. Garret Graves, R-La., and Abigail Spanberger, D-Va., had successfully rounded up the 218 signatures needed for a discharge petition to bypass GOP leaders and bring up bipartisan legislation that would repeal two long-standing provisions docking Social Security benefits for certain retirees. They were set to make their move as soon as Tuesday night by triggering a two-day clock to bring to the floor the special rule for immediate consideration of the bill. ...

Then the Freedom Caucus, which opposes the measure’s $196 billion cost over a decade, intervened.

What happened: Freedom Caucus Chairman Andy Harris, R-Md., a more or less local member from the Eastern Shore, presided over the pro forma session, which lasted all of seven minutes.

During the brief session he recognized outgoing Rep. Bob Good, R-Va. — the former Freedom Caucus chair who lost his primary — for a unanimous consent request. Good’s request to lay the Social Security bill on the table was agreed to by unanimous consent, with no one else in the chamber to object.

The effect of laying the bill on the table in this context, under House rules, has the same effect as defeating a bill on the floor; it is dead for the time being. Since the discharge petition was actually filed on the rule for consideration, not the bill itself, the rule could still be called up for a vote under discharge procedures, which if adopted would remove the bill from the table and allow a vote.

 Alternatively, a brand new, identical bill could simply be introduced — as early as this Friday’s pro forma session — and that measure put up for a vote under suspension of the rules as soon as next week. ...

Harris’ move to recognize Good goes against the “Speaker’s announced policies” in exercising authorities under House rules, which stipulate that such UC requests can only be made after receiving assurances that the majority and minority leadership of both the House and the relevant committees have no objection.

In fact, before Harris recognized Good, House Parliamentarian Jason Smith can be heard on the microphone saying: “The chair will not entertain the gentleman’s request. The chair cannot entertain the gentleman’s request.” ...

WEP And GPO Tactics Raise Concerns Among Republican Legislators

     From The Hill:

A group of House Republicans is making a rare move that would force a vote on a bill to reform aspects of Social Security, stirring unrest in the conference.

The bill at the heart of the push, also dubbed the Social Security Fairness Act, seeks to do away with the Windfall Elimination Provision (WEP) and the Government Pension Offset (GPO), a proposal that backers on both sides of the aisle argue is long overdue.

The bill enjoys support from more than 100 House Republicans, and almost four dozen have cosigned the effort to use what’s known as a discharge petition to force consideration of the bill — and the strategy is rubbing some in the conference the wrong way.

“In a well-run Congress, no legislator signs a discharge petition if you’re a majority. That is a rule that is never broken,” Rep. Glenn Grothman (R-Wis.) told The Hill. “And the fact that 47 of my colleagues signed a discharge petition shows that we have an utter lack of discipline.” ...

Republicans say the matter was a topic of debate in a conference meeting earlier this week. ...

    Regardless of the House vote, it's very unlikely that this legislation will be voted on in the Senate.

...