Retirement Trust Fund Depletion Date Advanced By Three Calendar Quarters

    From the report by Social Security's Trustees on the state of the trust funds:

• ... The Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) Trust Fund will be able to pay 100 percent of total scheduled benefits until 2033, unchanged from last year’s report. At that time, the fund’s reserves will become depleted and continuing program income will be sufficient to pay 77 percent of total scheduled benefits.
• The Disability Insurance (DI) Trust Fund is projected to be able to pay 100 percent of total scheduled benefits through at least 2099, the last year of this report’s projection period. Last year’s report projected that the DI Trust Fund would be able to pay scheduled benefits through at least 2098, the last year of that report’s projection period.
• If the OASI Trust Fund and the DI Trust Fund projections were combined, the resulting projected fund (designated OASDI) would be able to pay 100 percent of total scheduled benefits until 2034, one year earlier than reported last year. At that time, the projected fund’s reserves would become depleted, and continuing total fund income would be sufficient to pay 81 percent of scheduled benefits. (The two funds could not actually be combined unless there were a change in the law, but the combined projection of the two funds is frequently used to indicate the overall status of the Social Security program.)
• Although the OASI Trust Fund depletion year remains the same, both the OASI and OASDI depletion dates advanced by about 3 calendar quarters, relative to last year’s projection. ...

    The change in the depletion date is because of the effects of the WEP/GPO repeal. 

The Right Will Spin The Trustees Report As Showing That The Doomsday That They Have Always Predicted For Social Security Is Right Around The Corner But Actually The Report Is Good News This Year

     From a press release:

The Social Security Board of Trustees today released its annual report on the financial status of the health of the Social Security Trust Funds. The combined asset reserves of the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance and Disability Insurance (OASI and DI) Trust Funds are projected to have enough dedicated revenue to pay all scheduled benefits and associated administrative costs until 2035, one year later than projected last year, with 83 percent of benefits payable at that time.

In the 2024 Annual Report to Congress, the Trustees announced:

• The asset reserves of the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds declined by $41 billion in 2023 to a total of $2.788 trillion.
• The total annual cost of the program is projected to exceed total annual income in 2024 and remain higher throughout the 75-year projection period. Total cost began to be higher than total income in 2021. Social Security’s cost has exceeded its non-interest income since 2010.
• The year when the combined trust fund reserves are projected to become depleted, if Congress does not act before then, is 2035. At that time, there would be sufficient income coming in to pay 83 percent of scheduled benefits. ...

Trustees Report Released

     From a press release:

The Social Security Board of Trustees today released its annual report on the financial status of the Social Security Trust Funds.  The combined asset reserves of the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance and Disability Insurance (OASI and DI) Trust Funds are projected to become depleted in 2034, one year earlier than projected last year, with 80 percent of benefits payable at that time. 

The OASI Trust Fund is projected to become depleted in 2033, one year sooner than last year’s estimate, with 77 percent of benefits payable at that time.  The DI Trust Fund asset reserves are not projected to become depleted during the 75-year projection period. ...

Senators Complain About Late Trustees Reports

From a press release: 

U.S. Senators Bill Cassidy, M.D. (R-LA), Mike Crapo (R-ID), and Senate Finance Committee Republicans sent a letter to the Government Accountability Office (GAO) requesting the agency monitor the Managing Trustee’s flagrant disregard for statutory deadlines.  Required by law, the Medicare and Social Security Trustees reports are to be issued no later than April 1, yet the 2021 and 2022 reports were issued August 31 and June 2, respectively.  ...  

The Biden Administration has repeatedly ignored Congressional inquiries as to why the trustees reports have not been submitted in a timely manner.  Neither Treasury Secretary Yellen nor the Board of Trustees have signaled any intent to modify internal procedure regulating management of the report schedule, nor have they adopted previous GAO recommendations to improve communication with Congress.  It is the responsibility of the Treasury Secretary to provide these reports to Congress in a timely manner, as required by law, or provide Congress and the American people with explanations for late work.  ...

    These delays are annoying but it's not like the Trustees Reports have arrived on time during Republican administrations. I suspect the delays have to do with staffing at Social Security's Office of Chief Actuary but I don't know. The delay certainly isn't a major problem.

Trustees Report Released

From the just released annual report of the Social Security trustees:

...  Considered separately, the OASI [Old Age and Survivors Insurance] Trust Fund reserves become depleted in 2034, and, for the first time since the 1983 Trustees Report, the DI [Disability Insurance] Trust Fund reserves do not become depleted within the 75-year long-range projection period. ...

[T]he projected hypothetical combined OASI and DI Trust Fund asset reserves become depleted and unable to pay scheduled benefits in full on a timely basis in 2035. ...

Trustees Report Finally Released

      From a press release:

The Social Security Board of Trustees today released its annual report on the long-term financial status of the Social Security Trust Funds. The combined asset reserves of the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance and Disability Insurance (OASI and DI) Trust Funds are projected to become depleted in 2034, one year earlier than projected last year, with 78 percent of benefits payable at that time. 

The OASI Trust Fund is projected to become depleted in 2033, one year sooner than last year’s estimate, with 76 percent of benefits payable at that time. The DI Trust Fund is estimated to become depleted in 2057, eight years earlier than last year’s estimate, with 91 percent of benefits still payable. ...

Good Report From CBO While Social Security Actuary Points Finger At Treasury

      From Marketwatch:

… According to the just-released analysis, Social Security’s Old Age and Survivor Insurance (OASI) trust fund will remain solvent a year longer than previously thought. This is the trust fund from which Social Security benefits are paid. …

This new analysis was produced by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), the non-partisan agency that analyzes the budget impact of various legislative proposals. To put its findings in context, it’s helpful to remember that every year the office of Social Security’s chief actuary updates its assessment of the OASI trust fund’s solvency. Its annual report typically is released in the spring.

No such report has been forthcoming this year, however. In an email, the chief actuary’s office told me that the decision about when to release its annual report is not theirs to make but instead is made by the U.S. Treasury Department. An email earlier this summer to that department asking for when this report will be forthcoming went unanswered. …

     Anyone want to speculate on why Treasury is holding this up?

What's Going On With The Delay In The Trustees Report?

      Senator Mike Crapo, the senior Republican on the Senate Finance Committee (which has jurisdiction over Social Security), is asking the Comptroller General of the United States and the head of the Government Accountability Office (GAO) to look into the question of why the annual report of the Social Security trustees is so late.

    If nothing else, I think that the public as well as Crapo deserve an explanation on why the trustees report is so late. It was due by April 1, 2021. Nobody gets excited if it's a little late (which it usually is) but a delay of nearly five months needs an explanation.

Where Is The Trustees Report?

      The ranking Republican on the Senate Finance Committee, Mike Crapo, is asking why we haven't yet seen the annual report of the Social Security Trustees. It's now more than four months overdue. I don't know if the report has ever been this late before. Crapo's staff has been informally asking about the report but not getting answers so Crapo is now writing a letter to the Trustees and issuing a press release. I suppose the delay is related to the pandemic in one way or another but this is getting ridiculous. Senator Crapo certainly deserves an answer.

Overdue

     There's an annual Trustees Report on the state of the Social Security Trust Funds that gathers same public attention. Last year's report came out on April 22 but none so far this year so we're overdue. I suppose the pandemic might have something to do with the delay. The change in Administrations might also play a role.

Trustees Report Released

     From a press release:

The Social Security Board of Trustees today released its annual report on the long-term financial status of the Social Security Trust Funds. The combined asset reserves of the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance and Disability Insurance (OASI and DI) Trust Funds are projected to become depleted in 2035, the same as projected last year, with 79 percent of benefits payable at that time.

The OASI Trust Fund is projected to become depleted in 2034, the same as last year’s estimate, with 76 percent of benefits payable at that time. The DI Trust Fund is estimated to become depleted in 2065, extended 13 years from last year’s estimate of 2052, with 92 percent of benefits still payable. ...

     Of course, the economic dislocations caused by the Covid-19 pandemic may significantly affect the trust funds in ways that cannot yet be projected. At least is the short run we know there will be decreased revenues.  We don't know how quickly and how completely the economy will rebound once this is over. We also don't know how this will affect claiming behavior. Will people apply earlier for benefits? I wouldn't know about retirement benefits but I've seen no jump in disability claims filed.

Congressional Hearings On Trustees Report?

     In past years there were Congressional hearings on the annual report of Social Security's Board of Trustees on the state of the Trust Funds on the same day the reports were issued or shortly thereafter. So far this year no hearings have been announced. Maybe it's because the report was issued the day after Easter while Congress in in recess. Maybe there just isn't the interest this year.

A Massive Change In Disability Trust Fund Projection

     From a Social Security press release (emphasis added):

The Social Security Board of Trustees today released its annual report on the long-term financial status of the Social Security Trust Funds. The combined asset reserves of the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance and Disability Insurance (OASI and DI) Trust Funds are projected to become depleted in 2035, one year later than projected last year, with 80 percent of benefits payable at that time.

The OASI Trust Fund is projected to become depleted in 2034, the same as last year’s estimate, with 77 percent of benefits payable at that time. The DI Trust Fund is estimated to become depleted in 2052, extended 20 years from last year’s estimate of 2032, with 91 percent of benefits still payable. ...

View the 2019 Trustees Report at www.socialsecurity.gov/OACT/TR/2019/.

     The change in the estimate for the Disability Trust Fund must be the most massive correction every made by the Chief Actuary in Social Security's long history. That correction tells me that the Disability Trust Fund projection is nearly meaningless. The Chief Actuary doesn't know what's going on. Nobody does.
     By the way, back when the Disability Trust Fund balance was going down, I kept saying that it was coming closer and closer to being in balance, that it might survive even without a legislative fix. We had a legislative fix to temporarily shunt more money into the Disability Trust Fund but I still wonder whether that was necessary. Would the Disability Trust Fund have ever run out of money if nothing had been done?

DI Trust Fund Makes Big Stride In One Year

     A Social Security press release (emphasis added):

The Social Security Board of Trustees today released its annual report on the long-term financial status of the Social Security Trust Funds. The combined asset reserves of the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance and Disability Insurance (OASDI) Trust Funds are projected to become depleted in 2034, the same as projected last year, with 79 percent of benefits payable at that time.

The OASI Trust Fund is projected to become depleted in late 2034, as compared to last year’s estimate of early 2035, with 77 percent of benefits payable at that time. The DI Trust Fund will become depleted in 2032, extended from last year’s estimate of 2028, with 96 percent of benefits still payable.

In the 2018 Annual Report to Congress, the Trustees announced:

• The asset reserves of the combined OASDI Trust Funds increased by $44 billion in 2017 to a total of $2.89 trillion.
• The total annual cost of the program is projected to exceed total annual income in 2018 for the first time since 1982, and remain higher throughout the 75-year projection period. As a result, asset reserves are expected to decline during 2018. Social Security’s cost has exceeded its non-interest income since 2010.
• The year when the combined trust fund reserves are projected to become depleted, if Congress does not act before then, is 2034 – the same as projected last year. At that time, there will be sufficient income coming in to pay 79 percent of scheduled benefits.

“The Trustees’ projected depletion date of the combined Social Security Trust Funds has not changed, and slightly more than three-fourths of benefits would still be payable after depletion,” said Nancy A. Berryhill, Acting Commissioner of Social Security. “But the fact remains that Congress can keep Social Security strong by taking action to ensure the future of the program.”

Other highlights of the Trustees Report include:

• Total income, including interest, to the combined OASDI Trust Funds amounted to $997 billion in 2017. ($874 billion from net payroll tax contributions, $38 billion from taxation of benefits, and $85 billion in interest)
• Total expenditures from the combined OASDI Trust Funds amounted to more than $952 billion in 2017.
• Social Security paid benefits of more than $941 billion in calendar year 2017. There were about 62 million beneficiaries at the end of the calendar year.
• The projected actuarial deficit over the 75-year long-range period is 2.84 percent of taxable payroll – slightly larger than the 2.83 percent projected in last year’s report.
• During 2017, an estimated 174 million people had earnings covered by Social Security and paid payroll taxes.
• The cost of $6.5 billion to administer the Social Security program in 2017 was a very low 0.7 percent of total expenditures.
• The combined Trust Fund asset reserves earned interest at an effective annual rate of 3.0 percent in 2017.

The Board of Trustees usually comprises six members. Four serve by virtue of their positions with the federal government: Steven T. Mnuchin, Secretary of the Treasury and Managing Trustee; Nancy A. Berryhill, Acting Commissioner of Social Security; Alex M. Azar II, Secretary of Health and Human Services; and R. Alexander Acosta, Secretary of Labor. The two public trustee positions are currently vacant.

View the 2018 Trustees Report at www.socialsecurity.gov/OACT/TR/2018/.

Trustees Report Coming

     The House Social Security Subcommittee has scheduled its annual hearing on the annual report of the Social Security trustees for June 7 at 11:00. Don't expect any surprises either in the report or in the reactions of the members of Congress.

Trustees Report

     From a Social Security press release:

The Social Security Board of Trustees today released its annual report on the long-term financial status of the Social Security Trust Funds. The combined asset reserves of the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance, and Disability Insurance (OASDI) Trust Funds are projected to become depleted in 2034, the same as projected last year, with 77 percent of benefits payable at that time. The DI Trust Fund will become depleted in 2028, extended from last year’s estimate of 2023, with 93 percent of benefits still payable.

In the 2017 Annual Report to Congress, the Trustees announced:

• The asset reserves of the combined OASDI Trust Funds increased by $35 billion in 2016 to a total of $2.85 trillion.
• The combined trust fund reserves are still growing and will continue to do so through 2021. Beginning in 2022, the total annual cost of the program is projected to exceed income.
• The year when the combined trust fund reserves are projected to become depleted, if Congress does not act before then, is 2034 – the same as projected last year. At that time, there will be sufficient income coming in to pay 77 percent of scheduled benefits.

Trust Fund Balance Increases By $23 Billion: GOP Will Claim Sky Is Falling

     The Social Security Trustees Report has been released. Here's a summary from a Social Security press release:

• The asset reserves of the combined OASDI [Old Age, Survivors and Disability Insurance] Trust Funds increased by $23 billion in 2015 to a total of $2.81 trillion.
• The combined trust fund reserves are still growing and will continue to do so through 2019. Beginning in 2020, the total cost of the program is projected to exceed income.
• The year when the combined trust fund reserves are projected to become depleted, if Congress does not act before then, is 2034 – the same as projected last year. At that time, there will be sufficient income coming in to pay 79 percent of scheduled benefits.

Trustees Report Finally Coming On Wednesday

     The 2016 Social Security Trustees report is scheduled for release on Wednesday, June 22. The House Social Security Subcommittee will hold a hearing that day.

Blahous And Reischauer Nominations Barely Clear Finance Committee

     The re-nominations of Charles Blahous and Robert Reischauer to Social Security's Board of Trustees were narrowly reported out of the Senate Finance Committee yesterday by a vote of 14-12 for each. 

     Blahous's nomination has been criticized because he has been a consistent advocate for Social Security "reform" that would cut benefits. I think it would be fair to say that he is philosophically opposed to the concept of social insurance and wishes to undermine it in any way possible. Reischauer has been opposed to the sorts of cuts that Blahous advocates but he hasn't been an advocate for increasing Social Security benefits.

     In any case, Social Security's Board of Trustees has no power. The Trustees have no role other than to sign off on a yearly report that is really the product of Social Security's actuaries. It's little more than a ceremonial position.

Social Security's Finances Looking Slightly Better Than Last Year

     The entire 2015 report of Social Security's Trustees hasn't been posted yet. Here's a link for it when it's published. Here's the summary given out so far:

Taken in combination, Social Security’s retirement and disability trust fund reserves are projected to be exhausted in 2034, one year later than was projected in last year’s Trustees Report.  After trust fund exhaustion, annual revenues from the dedicated payroll tax and taxation of Social Security benefits will be sufficient to fund about three-quarters of scheduled benefits through 2089.   The 75-year actuarial deficit for the combined trust funds is estimated at 2.68 percent of taxable payroll, down from 2.88 percent of taxable payroll estimated in last year’s Report.  This improvement is due to new data and improved projection methods. 

Social Security’s Disability Insurance (DI) program faces the most immediate financing shortfall of any of the separate trust funds.  The DI Trust Fund reserves are projected to be depleted in late 2016, unchanged from last year’s estimate, after which time dedicated revenues are projected to cover 81 percent of scheduled benefit payments.  Legislation will be needed to address this financial imbalance.

     By the way, no one came up with a legal reason why the plan for saving the Disability Insurance Trust Fund that I posted yesterday wouldn't work. That plan requires no Congressional action.

     Update: The entire report is out now. It shows the Disability Insurance Trust Fund being $800 million short of making it through 2016. This is based upon a projection that the Disability Insurance Trust Fund will lose more ground in 2015 than it lost in 2014 and, in fact, that the Disability Trust Fund will lose more ground in 2015 than the projection made last year even though 2014 was better than the projection for 2014. The Actuary projects that the increase in benefits paid in 2015 will exceed the rate of inflation. However, so far in 2015 the Disability Insurance Trust Fund has run $900 million better than it ran in the first five months of 2014 and the number of people actually drawing Social Security disability benefits is going down, not up. I keep telling people that the Disability Insurance Trust Fund will last into early 2017. You have to assume a significant worsening of conditions to make the Disability Trust Fund exhaust in 2016 at a time when all indications are that conditions are modestly improving.