Some time ago, the House Appropriations Committee announced
subcommittee allocations, that is the total amount of each subcommittee appropriation. The Labor-HHS Subcommittee has been told to cut appropriations by 12% from FY 2011 and by 26% from the President's budget. If I understand correctly, one aspect of the debt ceiling bill that will finally pass later today is that it essentially enacts the budget limits for FY 2012 that had been reported out of the House Budget Committee, the limits that the House Appropriations Committee used in preparing its subcommittee allocations. What is unclear to me is the extent to which the appropriations process is bound by the budget. The top line number for the entire budget will soon be established but how far down does that go? Does that debt ceiling bill enact the allocation to the Labor-HHS appropriation or is it still possible to trade off between the Labor-HHS appropriation and the Defense Department appropriation, for instance? In any case, I am pretty sure that nothing has yet been settled about the allocations within the Labor-HHS budget, so there can be tradeoffs between Social Security and HHS, for instance. If this sounds like an amateurish attempt to explain a complicated situation, it is. Still, it's far more than you're likely to find anywhere else.
Social Security's operating budget is not going to be cut by 12%. If that happened, Social Security might have to do something like shut down one day every week for an entire year. The agency's business just wouldn't get done. However, some cut may be inevitable. Furloughs are a distinct possibility. Increased backlogs are inevitable.
Is there a risk of a government shutdown on October 1? You would think not since we will shortly have a budget cap established for the year. Even if there is still jockeying for position among agencies surely Congress can adopt a continuing resolution to keep everything going until things can be sorted out. Unfortunately, appropriations are also about policy. There are no policy issues of substance affecting Social Security's appropriation but there are major issues affecting appropriations for the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS). Social Security has the misfortune of being linked to HHS in the appropriations process. Republicans want to use appropriations to make it impossible to implement what they love to refer to as "Obamacare." This has the possibility of causing a shutdown at least in the parts of the government covered by the Labor-HHS appropriation and again I remind you that this includes Social Security. Will Republicans press things that far? In the wake of the debt ceiling mess, who knows? The Federal Aviation Administration is currently
shut down over lesser issues.