Dec 14, 2011
I've Got A Secret
I am hearing that beginning next Monday, Social Security will no longer notify a claimant or their attorney of the identity of the Administrative Law Judge who will hear the case until the day of the hearing.
What Is Going On At The Payment Centers?
Social Security has released numbers indicating that payments of fees to attorneys and others for representing Social Security claimants are down about 15% since the beginning of the fiscal year, October 1, 2011. This indicates about a 15% drop in payments of back benefits to claimants as well. From what I am seeing, this payment slowdown is not getting better. It may be getting worse. The loss of overtime because of lack of operating funds accounts for some of this but I have a hard time blaming lack of overtime for the whole problem. I have heard reports that the settlement of a class action lawsuit concerning notices to blind claimants is part of the problem, as payment center personnel are now required to spend time calling blind recipients and reading notices to them. I have also heard that payment center personnel may now be involved in some way in identifying claimants to be targeted for continuing disability reviews. I do not know if the reports I have heard are accurate or whether they are anything like the whole story. Can anyone tell me what is going on? What is planned to deal with the usual problem of employees taking time off around Christmas because of "use it or lose it" with their annual leave? What is planned to deal with all the telephone calls that typically cause problems for the payment centers in January? If the current problems were to persist for an entire year, we would be in what I would consider an unimaginable situation where it is taking more than three months to get a claimant on benefits after they are approved. That isn't going to happen, is it?
Quiz Answer
Question: By how much are SSI benefits reduced if a recipient is living in the household of another and receiving free room and board throughout a month?
Possible Answers:
- One-Third
- One-Half
- $250
- The actual value of the room and board
Dec 12, 2011
What Happens If The Disability Trust Fund Runs Out Of Money?
Most people think there is only one Social Security trust fund but there are two. The one most people don't know about is the Disability Insurance Trust Fund. It has much more immediate problems than the Retirement and Survivor's Insurance Trust Fund. The Disability Insurance Trust Fund is predicted to run out of money in 2018. Restoring the Disability Trust Fund to health isn't that big a deal.A small reallocation of the FICA tax would do it with little effect upon the Retirement and Survivor's Insurance Trust Fund. You may have noticed, however, that Republicans have been taking hostages lately, refusing to agree to routine measures that prevent catastrophes, in order to achieve leverage. This tactic may have run its course as the public is tiring of crises and Democrats seem willing to practice brinksmanship themselves. Still, there is a very real threat that Republicans will attempt to use the problems of the Disability Insurance Trust Fund to force dramatic changes in Social Security's disability programs.
It's impossible now to predict whether there will be a crisis in a few years or what the Republican demands or Democratic response might be. It may be worth looking though at the question of exactly what looms if there is no agreement. My first thought was that there won't be a crisis because there is already authority for borrowing between the Trust Funds. Unfortunately, my memory failed me. There was such authority at one time but it expired in 1987. Let's hope this authority can be quietly renewed before 2018. My second thought is to wonder just how benefits might be paid if the Disability Insurance Trust Fund runs out of money because the exhaustion of the Disability Trust Fund does not mean that there will be no money to pay benefits. Actually, there will be enough money to pay about 84% of the benefits since there will still be revenue coming into the Disability Insurance Trust Fund, allowing some benefits to be paid out of the revenue stream. Would Social Security just reduce each month's check by 16%? Probably, but a Congressional Research Service study on the subject tells us that the Disability Trust Fund running out of money would be terra incognita. There is no clear statutory answer. Perhaps, the answer would be to delay each month's checks until sufficient funds are available to cover them, making each check later and later.
It's impossible now to predict whether there will be a crisis in a few years or what the Republican demands or Democratic response might be. It may be worth looking though at the question of exactly what looms if there is no agreement. My first thought was that there won't be a crisis because there is already authority for borrowing between the Trust Funds. Unfortunately, my memory failed me. There was such authority at one time but it expired in 1987. Let's hope this authority can be quietly renewed before 2018. My second thought is to wonder just how benefits might be paid if the Disability Insurance Trust Fund runs out of money because the exhaustion of the Disability Trust Fund does not mean that there will be no money to pay benefits. Actually, there will be enough money to pay about 84% of the benefits since there will still be revenue coming into the Disability Insurance Trust Fund, allowing some benefits to be paid out of the revenue stream. Would Social Security just reduce each month's check by 16%? Probably, but a Congressional Research Service study on the subject tells us that the Disability Trust Fund running out of money would be terra incognita. There is no clear statutory answer. Perhaps, the answer would be to delay each month's checks until sufficient funds are available to cover them, making each check later and later.
Dec 11, 2011
Disability And Unemployment
I said that I would have more on the testimony at the House Social Security Subcommittee hearing on December 2. Let me finally start getting around to it. The testimony of Stephen Goss, Social Security's Chief Actuary, included a statement that "Periodic economic recessions, as illustrated by the civilian unemployment rate in bright orange in the figure below, have been associated with temporary increases in disability incidence." I have copied his chart below. Click on it to see it full size.
What strong an association do you see? It seems to me that the correlation is so weak as to be indistinguishable from ordinary fluctuations associated with small policy changes. Does anyone have the statistical background to do an analysis on this? Is this chi square? I don't know my statistics but surely some reader does.
This is not a minor point. If the Social Security disability programs are little more than a form of unemployment benefit, perhaps they should be dramatically altered. That is the point of much of the recent criticism of the Social Security disability programs. Is there substance to this claim? I don't see it. Do you? If you do, can you prove it statistically? If it can't be proven statistically, those trumpeting this view ought to shut up.
What strong an association do you see? It seems to me that the correlation is so weak as to be indistinguishable from ordinary fluctuations associated with small policy changes. Does anyone have the statistical background to do an analysis on this? Is this chi square? I don't know my statistics but surely some reader does.
This is not a minor point. If the Social Security disability programs are little more than a form of unemployment benefit, perhaps they should be dramatically altered. That is the point of much of the recent criticism of the Social Security disability programs. Is there substance to this claim? I don't see it. Do you? If you do, can you prove it statistically? If it can't be proven statistically, those trumpeting this view ought to shut up.
Dec 10, 2011
Challenges For Social Security Administration
Here are a couple of excerpts from Fiscal Year 2011 Inspector General Statement on the Social Security Administration’s Major Management and Performance Challenges, a report by Social Security's Office of Inspector General (OIG):
As the end of FY [fiscal year] 2011, SSA’s [Social Security Administration's] hearings backlog was approximately 787,000 cases—about 82,000 cases higher than the backlog at the end of FY 2010 and 62,000 higher than its goal for FY 2011. However, SSA continued to improve the timeliness of hearing decisions. The cumulative average processing time for hearings dropped to 360 days as of the end of FY 2011, compared to 426 days as of the end of FY 2010. ...
In FY 2011, DDS [Disability Determination Services] staffing decreased from 18,269 employees to 17,271 employees – a loss of 998 employees. With the hiring freeze, DDSs are not allowed to replace the lost staff. At the end of 2011, five States were still furloughing DDS employees. ...
Dec 9, 2011
Windfall Elimination Provision Problems
From a recent audit report by Social Security's Office of Inspector General (OIG):
Our objective was to identify Old-Age, Survivors and Disability Insurance (OASDI) beneficiaries whose payments may have been affected by State or local government pensions. We limited our review to those beneficiaries who may have been receiving State or local government pensions and for whom the Social Security Administration (SSA) had not determined whether the Windfall Elimination Provision (WEP) or Government Pension Offset (GPO) applied. ...
Based on the results of our review, we estimate SSA overpaid about $623.8 million in OASDI benefits to approximately 24,900 beneficiaries because Agency staff did not apply WEP and GPO provisions to the OASDI benefits. If SSA does not take action to identify and correct these payment errors, we estimate it will pay about $869.9 million in future overpayments over the beneficiaries’ lifetimes ...
This was based upon a small sample. I suppose these auditors know what they are doing but they are basing a projection of almost a billion dollars on 13 or so cases. To a layman, that seems questionable.
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