The
witness list for Thursday's House Social Security Subcommittee hearing has been released. Only two witnesses are scheduled: Stephen Goss, Social Security's Chief Actuary and Joyce M. Manchester, Ph.D., Chief, Long-Term Analysis Unit, Health, Retirement, and Long-Term Analysis Division Congressional Budget Office.
Goss is on record saying that the shortfall in the Social Security Disability Trust Fund is temporary and can be resolved by transferring money from the Retirement Trust Fund.
We use administrative longitudinal data on earnings, impairment, and
mortality to replicate and extend Bound's seminal study of rejected
applicants to federal Disability Insurance (DI). We confirm Bound's main
result that rejected older male applicants do not exhibit substantial
labor force participation. We show this result is stable over time,
robust to more narrow control groups, and similar within gender,
impairment, industry, and earnings groups. However, we also find that
younger rejected applicants have substantial employment after
application. To what extent this translates into potential employment
for new beneficiaries depends on which group among them is considered
"on the margin" of receiving DI. If we use initially rejected applicants
-- a large and growing fraction of new beneficiaries -- the resulting
counterfactual employment rate for younger applicants is low, too. We
also find that rejected applicants bear signs of economically induced
applicants. DI appears to induce a growing number of less successful
workers to apply, an important fraction of which ends up without
benefits and non-employed.