Dec 8, 2018

CBO Versus OCA

     The Office of Chief Actuary at Social Security makes annual projections of the long term status of Social Security's trust funds but they're not the only ones. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) makes its own projections. Those projections have gotten further apart than one might expect. Here's the CBO's graphic showing the comparison based upon CBO's December 2018 projection.

Dec 7, 2018

SCOTUSblog on Biestek Oral Argument

     SCOTUSblog has a report on the oral argument in Biestek v. Berryhill, the Supreme Court case on "whether the Social Security Administration may ground a decision to deny benefits on the opinion of a vocational expert who refuses to disclose the data on which that opinion relies." The bottom line:
... Both of the lawyers and several justices danced around a central underlying problem: Many people suspect that vocational experts’ opinions, whether favorable or unfavorable to claimants, have tenuous support. Indeed, vocational experts increasingly have become black boxes, churning out de facto decisions in many disability cases based on little more than guesswork. ...
The justices certainly identified several possible bases for a minimalist decision. They also, however, raised tantalizing hints of a broader ruling. If the court were to embrace the narrow view of the “substantial evidence” test, administrative agencies would have sweeping license to engage with arguments against their preferred decisions. On the other hand, several justices seemed disposed to force the Social Security Administration finally to address long-standing objections to the arbitrariness of vocational experts’ opinions.
     I think there's reason to worry that Social Security will not be ready for the Court's decision. It's not a mere suspicion, it's a fact, that, at best, vocational expert testimony is little more than guesswork. Mostly, though, it's based upon the Dictionary of Occupational Titles (DOT) which is almost 40 years old! Nobody, including Social Security, thinks the DOT is reliable in 2018.

What Can You Expect? She Only Tried 71 Times!

     From KUTV:
Every single time Laura Elise-Chamberlain calls the Social Security Administration, it goes the same way: the phone rings for five to 10 minutes, and then the line is disconnected.
Elise-Chamberlain is calling because she got a letter saying the SSA has about $4,000 of money that is rightfully hers. To claim it, call, the letter says.
With that not working, Elise-Chamberlain tried a work-around.
“I've gone to the social security office in person just to see, waited for two hours, and was told that they can't help me," she said.
Elise-Chamberlain has been persistent, calling 71 times, she showed Get Gephardt [apparently a reporter at the TV station] in her phone’s call log.

Dec 6, 2018

SSI Income And Resources Limitations Are Indefensible

     From Real Change:
His name isn’t Wyatt Avery, but when this reporter asked him, jokingly, what name he’d like to use for the piece you’re currently reading, the question left him a bit flummoxed.
“Oh, I don’t know — Katie,” Avery said, laughing the laugh of a person who really doesn’t care but feels like maybe they should humor you. A pity laugh.
As I continued to look into his story about why the government had decided to not just stop paying him the supplemental social insurance (SSI) money on which he depends, but also come after him, a homeless man, for nearly $4,000 for a mistake it acknowledged its office made, it became clear that his nom de plume would have to be Wyatt Avery. ...
SSI is challenging. It is hard to get into the program, hard to stay in the program and ultimately hard to transition away from it and support oneself should the opportunity arise. That’s because to qualify for SSI, you have to be incredibly poor; so poor that the amount of assets it would take to pay first and last month’s rent plus a security deposit in the city of Seattle would automatically get you kicked off of your primary source of income.
To qualify for SSI, an applicant can have no more than $2,000 in assets. That includes nearly everything you own, excluding your home (if you have one), your car (at least usually, according to SSA) and your burial plot. ...
Food benefits plus SSI meant that Avery had not quite $1,000 to sustain himself every month while he lived on the streets of Seattle. That meant he didn’t starve, but it also created one more barrier to getting indoors. On top of the usual difficulties in securing an apartment (background checks, credit checks, application fees, et al), Avery and other homeless people have a catch-22: Save up enough to get housing and lose your primary source of income in the process.
That was Avery’s problem. He had first and last month’s deposit squirreled away in the hopes of getting an apartment.
“They’re not going to check,” his payee, a person who helps with finances for people who can’t manage their own, told him. But they did.
“I had to spend $2,300 in two months,” Avery said. Because that happened, he has to wait until a housing voucher opens up rather than getting an apartment for himself.
Here’s the thing about that $2,000 asset limit: It isn’t very much. It wasn’t very much in 1984 when it was first established and was worth more than double what it is today — roughly $4,867.85 according to one inflation calculator. Income limits are even worse: According to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities (CBPP), the government hasn’t adjusted income limits for the program since 1979. ...

Dec 5, 2018

OMB Director Still Wants To Cut Social Security And Medicare

     From the Washington Times:
White House budget director Mick Mulvaney said Wednesday there are still ways the administration can propose to trim spending on Social Security and Medicare without limiting basic benefits — something President Trump has said he won’t do.
He said the key is to find programs that siphon money from entitlements, but aren’t part of the core programs. He pointed to Medicare money going to pay students’ medical school tuition as the type of target the administration could try to tackle without cutting into Americans’ benefits.
“You can reform and save a ton of money in Medicare and Social Security and not touch the primary pillars for the next several years,” he told state legislators at an event hosted by the American Legislative Exchange Council. ...

Biestek Transcript Available

     The transcript of the Supreme Court oral argument in Biestek v. Berryhill, a case concerning whether vocational experts must produce the data they rely upon when testifying in Social Security hearings, is now available.

George H.W. Bush’s Most Important Social Security Moment

      From the Motley Fool:
Under George H.W. Bush, the single-most memorable [Social Security] moment was the signing of the Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act (OBRA) on Dec. 19, 1989. OBRA contained 25 separate provisions related to Social Security, which included the requirement that the Social Security Administration send personal earning and benefit statements to persons working under Social Security. These statements allow workers to estimate what they'll receive from the program if claiming at full retirement age. 

Dec 4, 2018

Florida ALJ Arrested

     From the Tampa Bay Times:
A Pinellas County administrative law judge was arrested Sunday on charges of DUI and leaving the scene of a crash after driving the wrong way on Gunn Highway and striking another car, deputies said.
Arline Colon, 49, was driving a Jeep Wrangler south in the northbound lanes near Isbell Lane in the Odessa area shortly before 9 p.m. when she crashed into a Nissan Altima, according to the Hillsborough County Sheriff's Office....
Colon did not stop to provide any information and continued driving south, but the Jeep's front axle snapped and it came to a stop in the road near North Mobley Road, deputies said, about a mile from the crash scene. 
 A deputy arrived and found Colon sitting in a gray sedan parked nearby. She had a visible seatbelt mark on her body, her wallet was found in the Jeep's front passenger and her flip flops were found under the brake pedal, according to the Sheriff's Office. Deputies say Colon smelled of alcohol, had slurred speech, bloodshot and watery eyes and was unable to stand under her own power. ...
Florida Bar records show Colon is an administrative law judge for the U.S. Social Security Administration’s St. Petersburg office. ...
Records show Sunday's arrest is Colon's second this year.
She was arrested Aug. 17 and charged with providing false information to a law enforcement officer, a first degree misdemeanor. ...