From Michael Hiltzik writing for the L.A. Times:
It’s natural for decision-makers grappling with a new crisis to dust off ideas tried in the last one, whether they were good ideas or bad. Here’s a bad idea, unearthed by President Trump from a decade ago: Cutting the payroll tax to goose the economy.
A payroll tax cut was part of the arsenal used by President Obama to fight the Great Recession in 2011. It was a bad idea then, and a bad idea now.
In remarks at a press conference Monday, Trump mentioned a payroll tax cut as a possible component of a stimulus plan to counteract a coronavirus-related economic slump. As of this writing, the administration hasn’t released any details.
Regardless of how it’s designed, however, a payroll tax cut would be poorly targeted, delivering the most help to households least in need. It would have only a diluted impact over time. And it would undermine Social Security, the program most dependent on the payroll tax. ...
Hourly workers sent home without pay or laid off because of the economic slowdown would get nothing. That would include the workers most vulnerable to virus quarantines or workplace closures, namely service workers such as waiters and waitresses, hotel staff and office cleaners.
Even for those still receiving paychecks, the payroll tax cut would be spread over the year via weekly or biweekly paychecks, providing a mere 10 bucks or so a week for a low-income household. ...
In 2011, the payroll tax cut was seen by Obama and his aides as an unpalatable choice forced on them by intransigent Republicans in Congress. ...
The payroll tax cut “was the best we could do at the time given the political constraints,” Furman notes. “But it was far from optimal then and would be even further from optimal now.” ...
What’s most unnerving about a payroll tax cut is its potential to undermine Social Security. ...
Using this income stream as a tool to pump stimulus into the economy threatens to erode Social Security’s position as a unique government program with its own revenue stream, a tax dedicated to its upkeep alone. Melding its own revenue with that of the federal government at large facilitates no one’s goals except those who want to see the edifice pulled down.Cutting payroll taxes isn't in the plans of House Democrats. If the President wants to get something passed, he's going to have to give House Democrats something they can say "yes" to.