SSI Disappointment

      The Chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee, which has jurisdiction over SSI, has announced that on September 9 and 10 his Committee will mark up a bill to be part of the budget reconciliation bill that Democrats hope to pass this month.  The announcement includes a description of what will be in the draft bill. I see no mention of SSI. This may be amended in committee but I doubt it will happen.

     The Senate Finance Committee may have different priorities. If so, the differences will have to be worked out.

Hearing Office Average Processing Time Continues To Rise

     The report shown below was obtained from Social Security by the National Organization of Social Security Claimants Representatives (NOSSCR) and published in its newsletter, which is not available online to non-members. It contains basic operating statistics for Social Security's Office of Hearings Operations (OHO). 

     Note that the average processing time jumped from 301 days at the end of last year to 351 days as of July. I posted about this last month and received responses basically saying "What's the problem? The total number pending is down." Who outside Social Security cares what the total number pending is? What people outside the agency care about is how long it takes to get a hearing and a decision. Even though fewer appeals are being filed, it's taking longer and longer to get a hearing and a decision. That's important. There are a multitude of problems at Social Security. This is one of them. Like many of those problems, this one is going to get worse. There is a huge backlog of cases stuck at the initial and reconsideration levels. Those backlogs will eventually be worked down, leading to more appeals. Everyone expects an avalanche of disability claims once the field offices reopen.

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Happy Labor Day!

 

Is OASIS Still Around?

 

    Social Security used to publish an employee magazine called OASIS. Is OASIS still being published?

     Extra points if you know why it was/is named OASIS.

Note That It Was An IRS Form In 1950

 

How Are The Trust Funds Invested?

    

     Have you ever wondered about how the Social Security trust funds are invested? Probably you know they're invested in U.S. government bonds but you wonder about the mechanics. Here are all your answers in a report by the Congressional Research Service. 

     By the way, if you don't like the idea of the Trust Funds being invested in government bonds, how would you have them invested? Are you comfortable with the U.S. government owning trillions of dollars in corporate stocks and bonds? Isn't that more than a little socialistic? How would the government decide what to buy and sell? How would it vote on elections of corporate boards of directors? What happens when the markets go down in value?

"Long Covid" And Social Security

Wuhan, China

      Many wonder what effects the Covid-19 pandemic will have on Social Security's disability programs. Will there be many "long Covid" disability claims? The Lancet, one of the most important medical journals in the world, has published a study based upon Covid survivors in Wuhan, China, where Covid-19 was first detected. The survivors were followed up at six and twelve months and compared to similar individuals who had not had Covid.

     At twelve months 49% of the Covid survivors were reporting symptoms. Shortness of breath was reported in 30% at twelve months. Interestingly, 26% were reporting depression or anxiety. Covid survivors were reporting more problems with mobility as well as pain or discomfort that those who had not had Covid. Of those patients who had been working prior to Covid, 88% had returned to work twelve months out. The study concluded that the survivors had a good physical and functional recovery but their health status was still lower than that of similar individuals who had not suffered from Covid.

A Deeper Dive Into The Trustees Report

      From the Social Security Trustees Report:

... The changes in policy for the Deferred Actions for Childhood Arrivals program discussed in III.B, which affect the Social Security program in the first ten years primarily by increasing payroll tax income, increased the tenth year OASI trust fund ratio by 1 percentage point. Changes in demographic assumptions over the short-range period, primarily increased mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic, increased the projected tenth year trust fund ratio for OASI by 6 percentage points. .

     In case you're having trouble following the verbiage, this says that DACA is helping the Trust Funds modestly because DACA members will be paying taxes, as is, sadly, Covid-19 because of the excess deaths. Contrary to right wing fairy tales, immigration is always good for the Trust Funds. On the whole, immigrants pay taxes for many years before they draw Social Security benefits. What's hard to understand about that? The Trust funds are projected to be depleted a bit earlier despite the effects of DACA and Covid-19 because of "several changes in economic data and assumptions."

     More specifically as to mortality, the report says that:

... Preliminary data for 2020 show that while the effects of the pandemic led to significantly higher death rates for those aged 15 and older, the death rates for those under age 15 were significantly lower, though not quite to the same degree. Thus, for ages 15 and over, death rates are assumed to increase above what would have been projected in the absence of the pandemic by 16.4 percent for 2020, 15 percent for 2021, 4 percent for 2022, and 1 percent for 2023. ...

    As best I can tell the Trustees make no assumption about long Covid disability claims. I don't know how they could. It's all speculative at this point.