Three-Card Monte

From Paul Krugman writing in the New York Times:

Social Security turned 75 last week. It should have been a joyous occasion, a time to celebrate a program that has brought dignity and decency to the lives of older Americans.

But the program is under attack, with some Democrats as well as nearly all Republicans joining the assault. Rumor has it that President Obama’s deficit commission may call for deep benefit cuts, in particular a sharp rise in the retirement age. ...

[W]here do claims of crisis come from? To a large extent they rely on bad-faith accounting. In particular, they rely on an exercise in three-card monte in which the surpluses Social Security has been running for a quarter-century don’t count — because hey, the program doesn’t have any independent existence; it’s just part of the general federal budget — while future Social Security deficits are unacceptable — because hey, the program has to stand on its own....

And having invented a crisis, what do Social Security’s attackers want to do? They don’t propose cutting benefits to current retirees; invariably the plan is, instead, to cut benefits many years in the future. So think about it this way: In order to avoid the possibility of future benefit cuts, we must cut future benefits. O.K.

What’s really going on here? Conservatives hate Social Security for ideological reasons: its success undermines their claim that government is always the problem, never the solution. But they receive crucial support from Washington insiders, for whom a declared willingness to cut Social Security has long served as a badge of fiscal seriousness, never mind the arithmetic. ...

Social Security And "Improper Payments"

As a result of a Presidential order, Social Security has developed a Reducing Improper Payments web page. Here is Social Security's summary of its recent Title II overpayment and underpayment experience.

RSDI Improper Payments Experience FY 2006 – FY 2009
	FY 2006	FY 2007	FY 2008	FY 2009
Total Payments
Dollars in Millions	$545,000	$576,800	$607,210	$659,565
Underpayments
Dollars in Millions	$680	$754	$495	$619
Target Rate	≤0.20%	≤0.20%	≤0.20%	≤0.20%
Actual Rate	0.12%	0.13%	0.08%	0.09%
Overpayments
Dollars in Millions	$1,824	$1,209	$2,041	$2,547
Target Rate	≤0.20%	≤0.20%	≤0.20%	≤0.20%
Actual Rate	0.33%	0.21%	0.34%	0.37%

By the way, this does not include as underpayments the benefits going to disability claimants who are finally paid back benefits after lengthy appeals. If those were included the underpayment rate would be multiplied by at least ten.

Change Coming On Same Sex Marriages?

No federal agency would be more affected than Social Security if same sex marriage were to become a national right. The idea that this will happen, perhaps in the next couple of years, is no longer far-fetched. Below is the composite public polling on the issue.

75 Years

Happy 75th Anniversary!

Presidential Proclamation

President Obama has issued a proclamation in honor of Social Security's 75th birthday coming up tomorrow. I have not heard of any event involving the President honoring this occasion. I find this disappointing. I know that many Social Security field offices held open houses this week in honor of the anniversary. I am unaware of any event at Social Security's central offices but that does not mean that there was no such event.

Astrue On 75th Anniversary

From a piece supposedly written by Social Security Commissioner Michael Astrue that must have been sent out to newspapers by Social Security's press office:

Social Security, the most successful domestic program in our nation’s history, is celebrating its 75th anniversary. ...

Today, millions of retirees live in dignity thanks to their monthly Social Security benefit payment. Over the decades, Social Security expanded to not only protect against the risk of poverty in old age, but also the economic risk of career-ending disability and the premature death of a worker. ...

As we celebrate 75 years, I reflect on how Social Security was there for my family, how proud I am to work for this remarkable program, and how lucky I am to lead such a talented and compassionate work force.

I have two wonderful children who entered the work force in the past year. One is being called up for active military duty in October and the other will teach inner-city children. It is imperative that they and millions of other young Americans have confidence that we will continue to honor the great inter-generational contract that is Social Security.

It is in this spirit that President Barack Obama established the National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform that in December will make recommendations regarding the future of Social Security. ...

Social Security Reduces Poverty

From the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities:

Social Security benefits play a vital role in reducing poverty. Without Social Security, according to the latest available Census data (for 2008), 19.8 million more Americans would be poor. Although most of those kept out of poverty by Social Security are elderly, nearly a third are under age 65, including 1.1 million children. ...

TABLE 1: Effect of Social Security on Poverty, 2008
Age Group	Percent in Poverty		Number Lifted Out of Poverty by Social Security
	Excluding Social Security	Including Social Security
Children Under 18	20.5	19.0	1,117,000
Adults Aged 18-64	14.5	11.7	5,281,000
Elderly Aged 65 and Over	45.2	9.7	13,410,000
Total, All Ages	19.8	13.2	19,808,000
Memorandum:
Women Aged 65 and Over	49.7	11.9	8,120,000
Source: Center on Budget and Policy Priorities based on data from the U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, March 2009.