Debt Ceiling Settlement? Will SSA Be Affected?

Brian Beutler at TPM reports that there may be a settlement of the debt ceiling crisis. The settlement would involve a special committee that would recommend further budget reduction measures. That  committee would report back in November. Congress would then have until December 23 to enact something to reduce the deficit by December 23. If nothing happened, automatic cuts would go into effect, including Defense and Medicare. There is nothing in the report suggesting that Social Security benefits would be cut. The Medicare cuts would be directed at providers rather than beneficiaries. We will have to wait on further details but Social Security's administrative budget might be cut which would give us the prospect of furloughs just in time for Christmas. There is also a strong probability that if Congress is able to do something about the deficit by December 23 that Social Security will be affected with the chained CPI being the starting point but not necessarily the ending point.

A Solution At Last!

Just when you think there's no hope for the debt ceiling crisis, there it is. All it takes to solve it is two coins.

From The Past

Courtesy of the Way Back Machine, take a look at Social Security's homepage as of June 13, 1997.

An Outlier

We have had recent talk of "outliers" at Social Security, Administrative Law Judges (ALJs) who approve or deny too many or too few claims or who just dispose of too many or too few cases, but in one way perhaps the most prominent outlier of all of Social Security's ALJs is Richard Harper, the Hearing Office Chief Administrative Law Judge (HOCALJ) in Charlotte. He is holding down this position even though he is 90 years of age.
He was  Administrative Law Judge In Charge (ALJIC), the old title for what is now HOCALJ, in 1978 when I interviewed for a job as a staff attorney. I took a job in Raleigh, where I was living, instead. He's still there.

I Don't Think You Can Enforce It That Way

There are early signs suggesting that Social Security's computer system is making it impossible for a new Social Security disability claim for months after a decision is issued by an Administrative Law Judge.

Roundup Of Debt Ceiling News

Here is this morning's news concerning the debt ceiling crisis that threatens Social Security payments among other things:

• House Speaker John Boehner was forced to postpone a vote on his party's plan for extending the debt ceiling because he did not have enough votes to pass it. It is unclear whether he can get the votes solely from among Republicans. Republicans in the House has no recent experience in negotiating for Democratic votes.The Republican dilemma changes the equation as the Associated Press notes: "Republicans will try again Friday. If they continue to fail, then President Barack Obama and Senate Democrats will have extensive leverage to shape a bill to their liking and practically dare the House to reject it and send the nation into default." On the other hand, Ezra Klein warns that "Anyone who says they know exactly what happens next is lying." By the way, one problem for Republicans is that their bill includes $17 billion for Pell grants, which got some Republican votes but which some other Republicans regard as pork.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 62 points yesterday. It is down 440 points on the week heading into today's trading. Interest rates on U.S. Treasury notes have moved sharply higher. Investors have pulled billions of dollars out of money market funds in recent days. Moody's is threatening to lower the credit ratings of 177 municipal bond issuers -- and yes, that is related to the debt ceiling impasse. If this sounds like developments that don't threaten you, trust me each and every person reading this is threatened by these developments.
• Update: The Dow is down by over 100 points in early trading.  Harry Reid, the Senate Majority Leader, has just told the Senate that "The last train is leaving the station" as he starts to move forward with his bill to raise the debt ceiling.
• Further update: The President is speaking to the country urging quick action. This is a tweet from an Agence France Presse (AFP) reporter: "Looks like US Senate votes at 1 am Sun, 7:30 am Mon, final #debt vote Tues, per a Dem aide. " This would then go to the House of Representatives which would decide whether we have a default. 
• Further update: It looks like House Republicans may bring a bill to the floor under which "The debt ceiling would be raised immediately but not by enough to get the government through next year. To get the second debt ceiling increase, House Republicans want a balanced budget constitutional amendment to pass both chambers first and be referred to the states." The Senate would never agree to that. 
• Further update: From Michael Shear writing on his New York Times blog:

Senate Democrats said Friday that they were prepared for an all-night battle on the Senate floor that could go into the wee hours of Sunday morning unless Republicans began negotiating on a bipartisan plan to raise the debt ceiling....

If Republicans filibuster that vote, Democrats say they are prepared to repeatedly require Republicans to object to the bill’s passage, keeping them in their seats for hours and creating a middle-of-the-night legislative spectacle for the cameras.

And from Ezra Klein:

John Boehner has a problem. He likes being Speaker of the House of Representatives. He would like to continue to be Speaker of the House of Representatives. But being Speaker of the House of Representatives means both leading the House Republicans and compromising to get things done. And in this Republican Party, at this moment, if you want to lead the House Republicans, you can’t compromise to get things done.

We’ve now seen the same farce play out four times. Republican leaders get close to a deal and then, just before they can close it, their members revolt and they have to pull back....

In order to have any chance of surviving as Speaker of the House, Boehner needs to produce legislation that is completely unacceptable to the White House and the Senate. Their opposition is a feature, not a bug. Consider how he sold his plan to Laura Ingraham: “President Obama hates it. Harry Reid hates it. Nancy Pelosi hates it. Why would Republicans want to be on the side of President Obama, Harry Reid, and Nancy Pelosi [is] beyond me.”

Why anyone would think that a plan loathed by the Majority Leader of the Senate and the President of the United States would be signed into law is beyond me. And since then, Boehner has moved the plan considerably to the right. But that’s because he’s not legislating. He’s just trying to survive.

It’s not just that Boehner’s party doesn’t like any of the viable compromises on the table. It’s that they don’t like compromise, full stop.

Expediting Vocational Assessment At Steps 4 and 5?

Social Security has requested approval from the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) for proposed "Regulatory revisions related to expediting the vocational assessment at steps 4 and 5 of the sequential review process."

New Non-Attorney Withholding Rules

Social Security published interim final rules in the Federal Register yesterday concerning direct payment of fees to some non-attorney representatives. The new rules contain numerous small changes.