Social Security has posted updated statistics showing the number of disability claims filed and approved through the end of September. Here are the numbers of claims received at Disability Determination Services (DDS) by quarter this year:
- Q1 -- 325,683
- Q2 -- 306,518
- Q3 -- 296,974
And here are the numbers of awards at all levels:
- Q1 -- 196,386
- Q2 -- 163,629
- Q3 -- 149,909
There is a very important footnote to these stats telling us that:
Because the application data are tabulated on a weekly basis, some months include 5 weeks of data while others include only 4 weeks. This weekly method of tabulation accounts for much of the month-to-month variation in the monthly application data. This method also occasionally causes quarterly data to have either 12 or 14 weeks of data instead of 13 weeks, annual data may include an extra week of data.
Despite the footnote, it seems clear that there has been a big decline in the number of disability claims filed and approved over the course of 2020. If you were of the opinion that the number of disability claims is strongly related to the unemployment rate, you've been proven spectacularly wrong, at least for this year. And don't try to say the decline in disability claims filed is due to the special Pandemic Unemployment Assistance. Those ended on July 31. If that was what was holding down the number of disability claims we should have seen a dramatic increase in claims filed after it ended but, instead, they kept going down.
I think that the number of claims filed is down due in large part to the increased difficulty that people have filing claims. I don't know what else it could be. Some people need more help than others.
10 comments:
You make a good point about the difficulty of filing a claim. I am an SSD attorney and this week I attempted to file a claim on behalf of a childhood friend who has a terminal illness. When we tried to file the system asked if he had a "MySocialSecurity" account. He said he did not and we were prompted to create one. The system rejected this attempt because it said that his email address was already in the system. We were able to recover the user name but we could not recover the password (even though he had answers to the security questions) so now we have to wait 10 days for SSA to mail him a temporary password. Why should his application be delayed because he cannot remember his MySocialSecurity login/password? How many claimants would just give up at this point?
@ 10:07AM. And how many people would just give up at that point. Now imagine if you did not have access to the internet at home and your public libraries are closed. And then you try to call the field office and are on hold for 15 minutes and then your call gets dropped.
Filing a claim is not a simple matter and people give up when they run into road blocks.
So then they contact an attorney to help them file, and we do a third party application. SSA still has to either call them or mail them a summary to review and return before their application is actually filed. This is another point where things can fall apart. I called a field office earlier this wee about an application we filed 2 months ago for a client and was told that the delay was because we did a third party app, so now they had to contact the claimant problem and they were busy. So nothing had been done for 2 months.
Interesting. We've had a marked increase in new clients this year. We've well ahead of last year's totals, which I thought would be a high water mark for our firm. Our marketing budget has stayed steady, but new client inquiries really jumped starting in March. We stress that we will assist new clients with their initial applications. I regularly hear new clients tell me that they couldn't visit their local district office to apply and had trouble getting a person on the phone at Social Security, so they called us instead to assist with the application. Or if they get through on the 800# the person sets an appointment for 2 months later or tells them to just go online. This fits your theory that the difficulty applying is driving down the applications. If someone doesn't have access or doesn't want to hire an attorney to apply, they're having a difficult time applying themselves.
There’s something wrong with your 2 sets of numbers. You show the numbers of claims and the numbers of awards as the exact same number. That can’t be correct.
If you want a check bad enough you will find a way. Plenty of opportunities out there.
You're right. I've corrected it. Thanks.
My office files initial applications. Prior to the pandemic we were seeing excessive delays in getting an initial application moved to actual disability evaluation. The pandemic is the current excuse for further foot dragging. The reviewers were already behind. I finally got initial decisions for cases filed 12/2019 in September 2020 to now. Our initials are even slower coming out of the field offices these days. Cases I filed in July are not logged in or assigned to a reviewer. While my hearing level clients are not waiting for hearings by phone, the case load is 12-18 months to get to a hearing request. Understaffing + COVID. When I look at my case management reports, I see that we have initial pending at the highest be have ever had....4 times the norm. Calls are high. The numbers will go up.
You don't need a mySSA account to file a disability or retirement claim. If you don't or can't establish a mySSA acount, SSA has to verify your identity. But one can still file a claim without a mySSA account. I know this for a fact as internet claims that are filed w/o an account are flagged for the office to contact the claimant. After identity is established, which is done over the phone, the claim is processed like any other internet claim.
Smoke and mirrors. Trust me, the applications will skyrocket next year. It was like after the 2008 recession. Many filed just because they were unemployed. So they may not be great cases but people will file.
However, there will be more legitimate breathing-related cases and psych cases. In 2008, I had clients who basically became severely depressed because they lost their lifelong job in their 50s. They just could never recover. The psych impact from this horrible virus will be something we have never seen in this country in years.
There was a several months hold on processing failure to cooperate denials during Covid that might be skewing the numbers.
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