In August Social Security asked the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) to authorize final regulations to allow Administrative Appeals Judges (AAJs), who currently only handle cases at the agency's Appeals Council, to hold hearings in place of the Administrative Law Judges (ALJs) who currently hear them. ALJs would still be allowed to hold hearings even under these regs. It's just that AAJs could start doing it as well. Those regs have just been approved by OMB. This must have been considered a very high priority matter. OMB rarely acts that quickly on regs.
You may think, AAJs, ALJs, what difference does it make? They're all judges, right? Not really. Unlike ALJs, AAJs enjoy zero decisional independence. There would be nothing to prevent Social Security from imposing quotas on AAJs, telling them they could approve benefits for no more than, let's say 25% of the cases they hear. They can't do that with ALJs. I don't know what point there could possibly be in these regs unless you wanted to remove that decisional independence.
To be honest, there is something that might prevent Social Security from imposing quotas on AAJs and that is public opposition. My feeling has long been that if ALJs didn't exist, Social Security would have to invent them. As problematic as they can sometimes be, ALJs add a necessary legitimacy to the process. Take them away and you'd soon have a crisis and the AAJs themselves would be screaming the loudest about their lack of decisional independence. I doubt that the people behind these regs realize that. A maximalist, public opposition is a sign I'm on the right track, attitude is part of this Administration's DNA.
Social Security will make these regs final by publishing them in the Federal Register. Unless they're even more bloody minded than I think, I expect they'll wait until after the election to publish these.
They can't make ALJs disappear immediately. Even if you told ALJs they could either become AAJs or be riffed, which would be the harshest way of doing this, it would take months if not years to accomplish.
If Trump is re-elected, expect to see a big controversy over implementation of these regs. Don't expect knee-jerk support for this from Congressional Republicans. Republicans apply for Social Security disability benefits. In fact, rural areas, where the GOP is strong, produce a higher rate of disability claims than urban areas where Democrats are strong.
If Trump loses, this will go away, one way or another. The most likely way is the Congressional Review Act that allows Congress to hold an up or down vote on regs adopted in the last few months before a change of Administration. Even the current Senate might well vote these regs down. If that fails a Biden Administration could refuse to implement the regs and could eventually go through the rulemaking process to repeal them.