The Real Problem

From Kevin Drum's blog:

I've been trying to figure out whether I have anything to say about the "chairman's mark" of the deficit commission report that was released today. In a sense, I don't. This is not a piece of legislation, after all. Or a proposed piece of legislation. Or even a report from the deficit commission itself. It's just a draft presentation put together by two guys. Do you know how many deficit reduction proposals are out there that have the backing of two guys? Thousands. Another one just doesn't matter.

But the iron law of the news business is that if people are talking about it, then it matters. So this report matters, even though it's really nothing more than the opinion of Alan Simpson and Erskine Bowles. So here's what I think of it, all contained in one handy chart from the Congressional Budget Office:

Here's what the chart means:

• Discretionary spending (the light blue bottom chunk) isn't a long-term deficit problem. It takes up about 10% of GDP forever. What's more, pretending that it can be capped is just game playing: anything one Congress can do, another can undo. So if you want to recommend a few discretionary cuts, that's fine. Beyond that, though, the discretionary budget should be left to Congress since it can be cut or expanded easily via the ordinary political process. That's why it's called "discretionary."
• Social Security (the dark blue middle chunk) isn't a long-term deficit problem. It goes up very slightly between now and 2030 and then flattens out forever. If Republicans were willing to get serious and knock off their puerile anti-tax jihad, it could be fixed easily with a combination of tiny tax increases and tiny benefit cuts phased in over 20 years that the public would barely notice. It deserves about a week of deliberation.
• Medicare, and healthcare in general, is a huge problem. It is, in fact, our only real long-term spending problem.

To put this more succinctly: any serious long-term deficit plan will spend about 1% of its time on the discretionary budget, 1% on Social Security, and 98% on healthcare. Any proposal that doesn't maintain approximately that ratio shouldn't be considered serious. The Simpson-Bowles plan, conversely, goes into loving detail about cuts to the discretionary budget and Social Security but turns suddenly vague and cramped when it gets to Medicare. That's not serious.

Veterans Day 2010

Proposal To Cut Social Security

The co-chairs of the fiscal commission, Erskine Bowles and Alan Simpson have released their draft of recommendations for the Commission. It is important to note that this is only the draft of the co-chairs, not the final Commission recommendations. The co-chairs have these recommendations for Social Security:

• Index the retirement age to longevity -- i.e., increase the retirement age to qualify for Social Security -- to age 69 by 2075.
  
• Index Social Security yearly increases to a lower inflation rate, which will generally mean lower cost of living increases and less money per average recipient.
  
• "Increase progressivity of benefit formula" -- i.e., reduce benefits by 2050 for middle, and, especially, higher earners, relative to current benefits.
  
• Increase the Social Security contribution ceiling: while people only pay Social Security taxes on the first $106,800 of their wages today, that's only about 86% of the total potentially taxable wages. The co-chairs suggest raising the ceiling to capture 90% of wages.

Some reactions:

• From the White House: "The President will wait until the bipartisan fiscal commission finishes its work before commenting. He respects the challenging task that the Co-Chairs and the Commissioners are undertaking and wants to give them space to work on it. These ideas, however, are only a step in the process towards coming up with a set of recommendations and the President looks forward to reviewing their final product early next month," said White House spokesperson, Bill Burton.
• From Nancy Pelosi: This proposal is simply unacceptable. Any final proposal from the Commission should do what is right for our children and grandchildren’s economic security as well as for our nation’s fiscal security, and it must do what is right for our seniors, who are counting on the bedrock promises of Social Security and Medicare. And it must strengthen America’s middle class families–under siege for the last decade, and unable to withstand further encroachment on their economic security.
• From Senator Dick Durbin, a Democrat: "We're not going to have an up-or-down vote on this. There are proposals in there that are painful. I told them I said there are things in here which inspire me and others which I hate like the devil hates holy water. I'm not going to vote for those things."
• From Senator Tom Coburn, a Republican: "If we do the cuts, I'll go for it. We may have to go for some revenues at some point."
• From AFL-CIO President Richard Trumka: "The chairmen of the Deficit Commission just told working Americans to 'Drop Dead,'"
• From Ezra Klein: The co-chairmen have some interesting policy ideas for how to balance the budget, but as of yet, they've not made any discernible progress on the political deadlock preventing us from balancing the budget. And it's the deadlock, not the policy questions, that they were asked to solve.

Bonuses To The Brass -- And A Weird Ring

The union that represents most Social Security employees, the American Federation of Government Employees (AFGE), has issued its October newsletter. The newsletter has a brief and very odd article concerning a peculiar ring that it says that the manager of the Santa Rosa, California field office wears. Of wider interest, the newsletter includes the results of a Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) request for information on bonus awards to Social Security brass. Social Security took 15 months to respond to the FOIA request so it is already out of date. Here are the numbers:

Atlanta Region:
Paul Barnes, Regional Commissioner
Performance Award $22,000 December 24, 2006
Performance Award $22,000 March 14, 2008

Algeleon P. Rhodes, Asst/Deputy Regional Commissioner
Performance Award $8,000 January 22, 2006
Performance Award $8,000 December 24, 2006
Performance Award $8,125 March 14, 2008

Mary Ann Sloan, Regional Chief Counsel
Performance Award $10,000 January 22, 2006
Performance Award $14,000 December 24, 2006
Performance Award $14,750 March 14, 2008
SES Rank Award $32,680 December 30, 2008

Quittie C. Wilson, Asst Regional Commissioner
Performance Award $8,000 January 22, 2006
Performance Award $8,000 December 24, 2006

Boston Region:
Susan Harding, Deputy Regional Commissioner
Performance Award $9,000 January 22, 2006
Performance Award $11,000 December 24, 2006
Performance Award $12,500 March 14, 2008

Manuel Nunez, Asst Regional Commissioner
Performance Award $8,000 January 22, 2006
Performance Award $9,000 December 24, 2006
Performance Award $10,000 March 14, 2008

Manuel Vaz, Regional Commissioner
Performance Award $10,000 January 22, 2006
Performance Award $20,000 December 24, 2006
Performance Award $23,375 March 14, 2008
SES Rank Award $59,897 September 30, 2008

Chicago Region:
Kim L. Bright, Regional Chief Counsel
Performance Award $8,000 January 23, 2005
Performance Award $10,000 January 22, 2006

Danny L. Byrns, TSC Manager
Individual Suggestion $4,050 December 20, 2004

Donna L. Calvert, Regional Chief Counsel
Performance Award $10,000 December 24, 2006
Performance Award $7,700 March 14, 2008

Trudy A. Lewis, Asst Regional Commissioner
Performance Award $8,000 January 22, 2006
Performance Award $7,700 March 14, 2008

Mary D. Mahler, Asst Regional Commissioner
Performance Award $7,850 March 14, 2008

James F. Martin, Regional Commissioner
Performance Award $9,000 January 23, 2005
Performance Award $12,000 January 22, 2006
Performance Award $12,000 December 24, 2006
Performance Award $12,000 March 14, 2008

Marcia R. Mosley, Deputy Regional Commissioner
Performance Award $1,500 May 29, 2005
Performance Award $8,000 December 24, 2006
Performance Award $9,250 March 14, 2008

Dallas Region:
Earl Melebeck, Assistant/Deputy Regional Commissioner
Performance Award $10,000 January 22, 2006
Performance Award $10,000 December 24, 2006

Ramona Schuenemeyer, Regional Commissioner
Performance Award $24,000 January 22, 2006
Performance Award $8,000 December 24, 2006
Performance Award $21,750 March 14, 2008
SES Rank Award $32,975 September 30, 2008

Tina M. Waddell, Regional Chief Counsel
Performance Award $12,000 December 24, 2006
Performance Award $16,500 March 14, 2008

Denver Region:
Nancy A. Berryhill, Regional Commissioner
Performance Award $12,000 January 22, 2006
Performance Award $14,000 December 24, 2006
Performance Award $17,500 March 14, 2008

Yvette Keesee, Deputy Regional Chief Counsel
Performance Award $3,500 April 14, 2008

Katherine E. Kintz, Deputy Assistant Regional Commissioner
Performance Award $2,000 March 30, 2008

Martha J. Lambie, Deputy Regional Commissioner
Performance Award $8,125 March 14, 2008

Kansas City Region:
Michael Grochowski, Regional Commissioner
Performance Award $24,000 January 22, 2006
Performance Award $10,000 December 24, 2006
Performance Award $13,500 March 14, 2008

William K. Powell, Assistant/Deputy Regional Commissioner
Performance Award $8,000 December 24, 2006
Performance Award $8,500 March 14, 2008

Frank V. Smith III, Regional Chief Counsel
Performance Award $10,000 January 22, 2006

New York Region:
(No dates were given)
Beatrice Disman, Regional Commissioner
Performance Award $25,000
Performance Award $26,150

Paul M. Doersam, Deputy Regional Commissioner
Performance Award $15,000
Performance Award $16,500
Performance Award $15,000

Anne Jacobosky, Assistant Regional Commissioner
Performance Award $8,000
Performance Award $8,000

Philadelphia Region:
Steven G. DeMarco, Assistant Regional Commissioner
Performance Award $12,000 January 22, 2006
Performance Award $12,000 December 24, 2006
Performance Award $14,250 March 14, 2008

Lewis H. Kaiser, Deputy Regional Commissioner
Performance Award $12,000 December 24, 2006

Paula M. Newcomer, Deputy Regional Commissioner
Performance Award $8,125 March 14, 2008

San Francisco Region:
Stephen J. Breen, Assistant Regional Commissioner
Performance Award $8,000 January 22, 2006
Performance Award $8,000 December 24, 2006
Performance Award $8,500 March 14, 2008

Patricia E. Robidart, Deputy Regional Commissioner
Performance Award $8,000 December 24, 2006
Performance Award $8,200 March 14, 2008

Peter D. Spencer, Regional Commissioner
Performance Award $20,000 January 23, 2005
Performance Award $22,000 January 22, 2006
SES Rank Award $56,708 September 27, 2006
Performance Award $26,150 March 14, 2008

Seattle Region:
(No dates were given)
Carl L. Ruban, Regional Commissioner
Performance Award $10,000
Performance Award $10,000

Dennis S. Wulkan, Assistant Regional Commissioner
Performance Award $10,000
Performance Award $8,000

Mold Problems In Ohio Office

From the Mold Reporter:

Although a new office space is being built, Social Security Administration claims office in Ironton, Ohio may be closing early due to the presence of black mold which first began two years ago. 9 of 11 workers have filed workmans comp claims with symptoms including headaches and respiratory problems.

September inspections reports from 2009 documenting problems around windows and the HVAC system were recently released to the public.

Cardiovascular Disease And Compassionate Allowance Hearing

A press release from Social Security:

Michael J. Astrue, Commissioner of Social Security, today hosted at the University of Maryland, Baltimore County, the agency’s sixth public hearing on Compassionate Allowances. Commissioner Astrue joined Susan B. Shurin, Acting Director of the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, National Institutes of Health, and other Social Security officials in listening to testimony from some of the leading experts on cardiovascular disease and multiple organ transplants regarding possible methods of identifying and implementing Compassionate Allowances for both adults and children.

“Compassionate Allowances and the Quick Disability Determination process are making a real difference for disabled Americans by ensuring those with devastating disabilities receive their benefit decisions quickly and accurately,” Commissioner Astrue said. “This fiscal year, about 150,000 people will benefit from these fast-track disability processes. With this hearing, we continue to look at broader categories of conditions to determine if a subset or certain diagnosis might clearly meet our disability standards and qualify as a Compassionate Allowance.”

Social Security implemented Compassionate Allowances in October 2008 to expedite the processing of disability claims for applicants with medical conditions so severe that their conditions by definition meet Social Security's standards. There currently are 88 specific diseases and conditions that qualify as a Compassionate Allowance. To learn more and to view a web cast of today’s hearing, go to www.socialsecurity.gov/compassionateallowances.

“Cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of death for both men and women in America,” said Commissioner Astrue. “More than 95,000 people are currently waiting for an organ transplant and nearly 4,000 are added to the waiting list each month. Today’s hearing will help us move one step closer to ensuring quick and accurate disability decisions for those with the most severe conditions.”

Labor-Management Councils

President Obama ordered all federal agencies to create labor-management forums. Social Security is the last agency to adopt a labor-management forum plan. Below is a copy of what I am told is the plan adopted by Social Security. I do not have complete confirmation that the main union involved, the American Federation of Government Employees (AFGE), has signed off on this.

Click on each page twice to view full size.

Is Social Security Still Hiring Under FCIP?

In the wake of the decision of the Merit Systems Protection Board (MSPB) that the Federal Career Intern Program (FCIP) is inconsistent with veteran's preference statutes has Social Security sent any directions to its managers? Is it business as usual until the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) acts? Has OMB acted? Is FCIP hiring still going on? Are managers trying to complete FCIP hiring under the current rules before they are told to stop? I realize that the MSPB did not order an immediate halt in FCIP hiring but it is clear that any FCIP hire may bring about a complaint to MSPB and the complaint is likely to be sustained.