"The Dirty Rotten Devil's In The Dirty Rotten Details"

From TPM Media:

House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) has made one thing clear, publicly and behind the scenes, in high-stakes debt discussions: Her caucus won't support Social Security benefit cuts, and Republicans better listen closely, because they need Democratic votes to increase the borrowing limit.

But she may be powerless to stop one increasingly discussed plan to lower Social Security's cost of living adjustment, which would escalate cuts to the program over time. Though in public, and more frequently through surrogates, she agitates against the change, it's an idea that has bipartisan support -- and so a likely candidate in any final debt deal....

"There's concern in my caucus about what would happen with CPI, some think that it's a benefit cut, others do not," she admitted. "The dirty rotten devil's in the dirty rotten details."

Report From House Social Security Subcommittee Hearing

From Dow Jones:

Lawmakers and witnesses diverged over the implications of switching how the Consumer Price Index is calculated at a Friday hearing of the House Ways and Means Social Security panel. Some experts argued that changing to a different indexing method could be seen as a technical fix that more accurately reflects the true rate of inflation, while others stressed that such a move could disproportionately burden women and those who depend the most on Social Security.

Switching to a "chained CPI," which takes into account consumers' changes in behavior when prices rise, and translates into a slower rate of inflation, has been floated as a potential way to help close the federal deficit in the negotiations over increasing the $14.29 trillion debt ceiling.

OIG Report On Online Filing Of Disability Claims

Social Security's Office of Inspector General (OIG) has conducted a study on "applicants' perceptions of the Internet claim (iClaim) process for Disability Insurance Benefits (DIB)" and found that:

We held discussions with 154 of the 250 sampled applicants and found the applicants had a positive experience filing for DIB online. In fact, we found that the majority of the applicants understood the questions asked of them in the iClaim application, found the iClaim application easy to navigate, and were able to easily save their progress and return to the application if needed.
We also found that not all applicants completed and submitted the Authorization to Disclose Information to the Social Security Administration to SSA. Further, applicants did not always use the online version of the Disability Report-Adult. However, those applicants who did complete the Report online understood the questions it asked.

I have to say that the fact that many claimants did not use the online version of the Disability Report-Adult is a bigger deal that OIG recognizes. The whole issue for Social Security is having the claimant -- or anyone other than Social Security -- do the inputting of data into their computer systems. Which form is it that requires major inputting of data on a DIB claim? It's the Disability Report-Adult. If claimants frequently fail to use that online form, then Social Security personnel frequently have to do a lot of data inputting. Also, although it was outside the scope of this study, the inability to file Supplemental Security Income (SSI) claims online is a huge problem.

The Threat Of Mandatory E-Verify

Scott Hochberg, writing at the Huffington Post:

[B]elieve it or not, one of the biggest threats to Social Security this summer could come from an entirely different direction [than the AARP], from an initiative whose main target is not even related to social program spending. I'm talking about E-Verify, a proposed system for curbing the legal employment of every single undocumented worker in America. While seemingly immigration-related, a mandatory E-Verify program could cripple the Social Security Administration (SSA) by concurrently draining already-limited funding while imposing heavy burdens on one of the most efficient government programs in existence. Oh yes, and it would threaten the timely distribution of all new Social Security benefits....

Forcing SSA to handle the administrative nightmare of E-Verify is worse than the usual conservative position of "starving the beast" -- it is more like starving the beast and making it run a marathon while carrying a 50 lb. backpack. That's because in addition to drastically increasing the responsibilities SSA would be faced with, the agency is already dealing with massive budget cuts that limit its administrative capacity.

A Rose By Another Name?

 From TPM Media:

Social Security benefit cuts may be a bridge too far for House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-CA). But what if Republicans and Democrats alike just agreed to refer to a benefit cut by another name.

That's how key negotiators have decided to treat one policy proposal, popular in Washington, that would simultaneously raise tax revenues and reduce Social Security benefits. As explained at length here, the idea is to peg federal Cost of Living Adjustments to a new, stingier measure of inflation. ...

And if you think Democrats are playing dumb because they want a deal, think again. They're some of the biggest supporters of this plan. ...

Reducing the COLA is something top Obama administration officials have wanted to do for a long time. ...

This bucking of orthodoxy via clever wordplay mirrors the cover Republicans give themselves from their base when they agree to close tax loopholes, despite pledging never to raise taxes. Only Democrats seem much more willing to play this game than the GOP.

Pelosi Rules Out Social Security Cuts

From TPM Media:

After a contentious White House meeting with President Obama and other Congressional leaders, House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) returned to the Capitol and drew an important red line: Members of her caucus won't vote for a grand bargain to raise the debt limit and reduce future deficits if the final deal includes cuts to Medicare and Social Security benefits -- and that means it probably won't pass. ...

It's widely believed that House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) will need Democratic votes to raise the debt limit. Democratic leaders, including House Minority Whip Steny Hoyer (D-MD) have offered to help him out -- but not on Boehner's terms alone. Pelosi has her own terms.

"We have been very clear Democrats are not supporting -- House Democrats are not supporting any cuts in benefits for Social Security or Medicare," she said....

 At the meeting, Pelosi spoke for her angry caucus. She and other Dems were caught off guard by the fact that Obama has essentially locked Congress on a course to make deep spending cuts in popular programs, on GOP-friendly terms, without consulting his own party.

One Angry Press Release

Another unusual event to report: Social Security sent out a press release on Independence Day! These normally are sent out to anyone who wants them delivered by e-mail but this one was not, apparently because no one was around the office to do it. This may especially be a problem now since the head of Social Security's Press Office just died suddenly. I was unaware of this press release until someone sent me a capy. Here is the press release, which obviously has an angry, defensive tone:

Syracuse's latest "analysis" is just more unsupportable grandstanding masquerading as academic research.  Federal law gives Administrative Law Judges substantial decisional independence in making their decisions, so variations between judges are a predictable consequence of Congressional decisions.

As with Syracuse's last report on Social Security, this one also is riddled with methodological sloppiness.  For instance, without other changes, a 30% increase in judges is going to increase the number of judges who are outliers at both ends of the spectrum, so simply comparing the range does not mean that decisions overall are more variable than in recent years. 

Syracuse also continues to compare apples and oranges.  For instance, National Hearing Centers (NHC) hear a rapidly changing mix of cases by video – one judge hearing cases from Anchorage while the judge next door is hearing cases from Puerto Rico.  Accordingly, it is irresponsible for Syracuse, as it does on page 5, to compare judges in an NHC with judges in a standard hearing office without accounting for the substantial differences in the age and origin of the cases.

We call on Syracuse University to insist that reports of this nature receive thorough peer review to end misleading errors, and to fully disclose the sources of funding for its reports.  Academic integrity requires no less.

Social Security Subcommittee Schedules Hearing On Short Notice

The House Social Security Subcommittee has scheduled a hearing on very short notice for tomorrow morning at 9:00. This is most unusual. The subject of the hearing is Social Security's finances. Here is the witness list:

• Syl Schieber, Ph.D., Independent Consultant, New Market
• Thomas S. Terry, President, T. Terry Consulting, on behalf of the American Academy of Actuaries
• C. Eugene Steuerle, Ph.D., Senior Fellow, Urban Institute
• Joan Entmacher, Vice President for Family Economic Security, National Women’s Law Center
• Charles P. Blahous, Ph.D., Research Fellow, Hoover Institution
• Barbara Bovbjerg, Ph.D., Director for Education, Workforce, and Income Security, U.S. Government Accountability Office