COLA Announcement Pushed To October 24

      Newsweek reports that the announcement date for the 2025 Social Security Cost Of Living Adjustment (COLA) has been pushed back from October 15 to October 24.

BLS Recalling Staff So Social Security COLA Can Be Computed

      From CNN:

The Bureau of Labor Statistics is calling some staff back to work to prepare its closely watched inflation gauge, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, despite the government shutdown, a Trump administration official told CNN.

The latest CPI data was previously scheduled for release on October 15. It’s unclear whether the report will still be released next week or delayed amid the shutdown. The Trump official told CNN that the data would be published before November 1, since that is the deadline to publish the annual increase for Social Security payments. The September CPI data is needed to calculate that adjustment. …

BLS Operations To Suspend Due To Government Shutdown

      From the New York Times:

… The Bureau of Labor Statistics, which produces the monthly jobs data, will “suspend all operations” if Congress and the president fail to reach a deal to extend funding for the federal government before a Tuesday midnight deadline, according to a contingency plan released by the Department of Labor. Data releases scheduled during a government shutdown “will not be released,” and data collection for future reports will cease, the memo said. …

     So, why does this matter for Social Security? The annual Cost of Living Adjustment (COLA) for Social Security would ordinarily be announced soon after the BLS report due this week. That will have to be delayed. We have until December for this, so there’s time. However, future COLAs could become unreliable due to the gap in BLS data collection. Is it even possible for them to ever catch up? Their staffing levels have also been cut.  I don’t think BLS was affected like this in prior government shutdowns. 

BLS And SSA

 

    You’ve probably heard that the President has fired the Director of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) after receiving a disappointing report from BLS on job growth in the U.S. He claimed that the Director had “rigged” the report to hurt him. There is now clear reason to fear that future job growth reports will be manipulated or outright falsified to please the President. Job growth is certainly important to Social Security. The more jobs, the more FICA money coming in to the Trust Funds. However, statistical reports on job growth themselves aren’t important to recipients of Social Security benefits. However, other statistics generated by BLS are — the cost of living numbers. The President has claimed that the Trump tariffs won’t increase inflation. Will BLS now be willing to issue reports showing a significant increase in the cost of living? The President would probably be more upset at significant increases in the cost of living than with disappointing job growth numbers. Will he insist that the books be cooked to show low inflation even if that’s not what’s happening? If he does, Social Security’s Cost Of Living Adjustment (COLA) will cheat Social Security recipients. That wouldn’t be popular.  So, what’s happened at BLS is pretty important to Social Security. Keep an eye on it.

Inflation And Social Security Disability Recipients

     From The Bulletin on Retirement and Disability:

... Social Security Disability (SSD) program beneficiaries, like other consumers, have been negatively affected by inflation over the past several years. In a survey from June of 2023, more than half (59 percent) of SSD program beneficiaries reported higher prices for the disability-related goods and services they need to purchase, and more than one-quarter reported reducing food spending to cover disability-related costs, Zachary Morris and Stephanie Rennane found in Examining the Impact of Inflation on the Economic Security of Disability Program Beneficiaries (NBER RDRC Paper NB23-08).

Using new survey data, the researchers found that 82 percent of beneficiaries reported out-of-pocket expenses related to their disability, with average annual spending of $4,412 and median spending of $384 as of June 2023. Fifty-nine percent of beneficiaries reported higher spending on disability-related goods and services compared to two years earlier. In response to these rising costs, 25 percent of beneficiaries indicated they went into debt; 43 percent found recent COLA adjustments insufficient to maintain their standard of living. ...

2.5% COLA

      The Cost Of Living Adjustment (COLA) effective for 2025 is 2.5%.

COLA Prediction

     One expert is predicting a 2.6% Cost Of Living Adjustment (COLA) in Social Security benefits this year. We'll know in a couple of months.

Attorney Fee Cap To Go To $9,200 This Fall And Be Indexed

     From a press release:

The Social Security Administration (SSA) plans to raise the fee cap for claimants’ representatives, from $7,200 to $9,200, when they and their client agree to use what is known as a “fee agreement process.” This will be the first increase to the fee agreement cap since November 2022, when the cap went up from $6,000 to $7,200, after remaining the same for thirteen years.

The fee cap increase is scheduled to take effect this Fall. The agency also plans to tie future increases to the annual cost-of-living adjustment (COLA). SSA will publish notice of this change in the Federal Register in April in advance of the effective date. ...

Republican Presidential Candidates Call For Means-Testing Social Security -- And More

     At last night's Republican Presidential debate candidate Chris Christie called for means-testing Title II Social Security benefits, comparing them to Food Stamps. He also wanted to increase full retirement age, although he didn't specify how high he wanted to go. In addition, his challenger, Nikki Haley urged changes in cost of living adjustments.

    As someone once said, "A program for poor people is a poor program." (By the way, who said that? I don't remember.)

User Fee Up To $117 In 2024

     The user fee, which amounts to a tax, on attorneys who represent Social Security claimants will be $117 per case for 2024.

This Year's COLA Is 3.2%

    As expected, this year's Cost Of Living Adjustment (COLA) is 3.2%.

This Year's COLA To Be Around 3%

     The New York Times reports that current projections are that this year's Cost Of Living Adjustment (COLA) for Social Security benefits will be around 3%, down from last year's 8.7%.

Probably No Big COLA This Year

     From CBS:

Seniors and millions of others on Social Security get an annual cost-of-living adjustment (or COLA) that's geared toward aligning their monthly checks with inflation. Next year, that COLA could be 3% — or even lower — based on recent inflationary trends, according to an early estimate from the Senior Citizens League. 

The estimate is based on the 12-month average rate for the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W), a basket of goods and services typically bought by workers, according to Mary Johnson, the Social Security and Medicare policy analyst at the Senior Citizens League.  ...

More COLA Numbers

     Social Security has published its complete Cost Of Living Adjustments. There's more than individual COLA adjustments to be computed. Here's some key numbers for 2023:

• Attorney user fee: $113
• FICA wage base: $160,200
• Quarter of coverage amount: $1,640
• Substantial gainful activity amount (non-blind): $1,470
• Trial work period threshold: $1,050
  

8.7% COLA

     This year's Cost Of Living Adjustment (COLA) to Social Security benefits is 8.7%.

2022 COLA Predicted To Be 8.7%

     The best current prediction is that this year's Social Security Cost Of Living Adjustment (COLA) will be 8.7%. The official announcement will come on October 13.

9.6% COLA?

     The Senior Citizens League is now estimating that Social Security's cost of living adjustment for this year will be 9.6%.

What Will The COLA Be This Year?

     It's that time of year when publications start trying to estimate the Cost of Living Adjustment (COLA) for Social Security benefits. Forbes is giving itself plenty of wiggle room by estimating it at 8.6% to 10.5%. Even the low figure is high. The upper figure is alarming.

    Obviously, the COLA is crucial for recipients of Social Security benefits but inflation that high has serious implications for Social Security's administrative budget, Social Security employees who won't receive a COLA anywhere near this great and Social Security attorneys who are subject to a fee cap that isn't indexed for inflation.

COLA Deteminations, Including Max User Fee

      Social Security has posted all of it cost of living adjustments in the Federal Register.

     Among other things, the maximum user fee for attorneys representing claimants goes up to $104 next year. Of course, there is no increase in the maximum fee that attorneys can charge.

     I've noticed over the years that Republicans in Congress seem to think that federal domestic agencies are infinitely wasteful. They believe that operating budgets can be cut and cut without any effect upon the public. There seems to be a parallel attitude by Social Security management. Allowing the fees that attorneys can charge to represent claimants to keep going down by not adjusting for inflation can't possibly have any effect on the public. Attorneys are infinitely inefficient and infinitely wealthy. They can absorb anything.

5.9% COLA

      The Cost Of Living Adjustment (COLA) for Social Security benefits effective next year is 5.9%, slightly lower than had been anticipated, but still the highest in many years.