I Suppose This Means That Trump Would Rather End Medicaid, Medicare And Social Security Than Negotiate With Democrats

      From Newsweek:

President Donald Trump warned Tuesday that if the Democrats don't approve funding, there are dangers to the future of Social Security and Medicare. 

Trump said at a press conference that when he asked Democrats for feedback on the funding bills, one said, "It means death." 

"There's nothing about death," Trump said. "Theirs is death because they're going to lose Medicaid, they're going to lose Social Security, they're going to lose Medicare, all of those things are going to be gone becausethe whole country would be bankrupt, and you're not going to have any kind of medical insurance." …

     This is Donald Trump’s Administration in a nutshell — governing through threats and intimidation while denying any responsibility for the consequences.  Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid are just “Democrat”programs that he and his party won’t mind destroying? This is lunacy.

Workplace Flexibility During Shutdown At Issue

      From Government Executive:

The Social Security Administration is denying its employees working amid the ongoing government shutdown access to days off and other workplace flexibilities, even as some struggle to afford their commute to work, union officials say. 

Guidance from the Office of Personnel Management governing federal employees’ pay and benefits during appropriations lapses, last updated Sept. 28, stipulates that while scheduled leave is cancelled at the start of a government shutdown, agencies should grant excepted employees, who are forced to work without pay until funding is restored, access to episodic telework or be temporarily placed in a furlough status if they need time off. … 

But Jessica LaPointe, president of the American Federation of Government Employees Council 220, which represents employees at SSA’s field offices and teleservice centers, said the agency appears to be categorically denying requests for telework or time off, instead placing workers in absent without leave status. Employees placed in AWOL status will be denied backpay for the time they miss and carries the potential for discipline or termination. … 

Guidance from the Office of Personnel Management governing federal employees’ pay and benefits during appropriations lapses, last updated Sept. 28, stipulates that while scheduled leave is cancelled at the start of a government shutdown, agencies should grant excepted employees, who are forced to work without pay until funding is restored, access to episodic telework or be temporarily placed in a furlough status if they need time off. 

“An excepted employee may be excused from duty for intermittent periods during a shutdown furlough,” OPM wrote. “While excused from performing excepted duties, the employee will be placed in furlough status unless the employee elects to use paid leave . . . However, if an excepted employee needs to be absent from work for brief periods, agencies are encouraged to explore the use of workplace flexibilities such as alternative work schedules and telework to accommodate the employee’s need to be absent. If use of workplace flexibilities is not appropriate for the situation, excepted employees must be furloughed for any brief absence or allowed to request paid leave.” 

But Jessica LaPointe, president of the American Federation of Government Employees Council 220, which represents employees at SSA’s field offices and teleservice centers, said the agency appears to be categorically denying requests for telework or time off, instead placing workers in absent without leave status. Employees placed in AWOL status will be denied backpay for the time they miss and carries the potential for discipline or termination.
“This is notice that you have been placed on Absence without Leave (AWOL) for 8 hours . . . when you failed to report for duty,” stated a memorandum that one employee received, obtained by Government Executive. “You have been placed on AWOL because you were not on duty as scheduled and you were not on approved leave to cover the period of your absence. Although AWOL itself is not a disciplinary action, it may be used as the basis for disciplinary action . . . As I have reminded you, it is important that you come to work when scheduled, remain on the job, and perform the essential functions of your job.” 

In a statement, an SSA spokesperson contested AFGE’s allegations as “inaccurate.”
“SSA is following long-standing guidelines for how requests for episodic telework, annual leave and sick leave are handled,” they wrote. “There is also a process for employees to follow if they request to be placed on furlough status, which is unchanged. SSA offices remain open and continue to serve the public.” 

But that doesn’t track with what is happening across the agency, LaPointe said. The union has seen an increase in denial rates for episodic telework since the shutdown began, and she said management has added new requirements to requests from employees to be placed in a leave or furlough status. …

Office Closures

      From Newsweek:

 Several Social Security offices have been closed today amid the larger government shutdown. ...

In California, the Madera Social Security office is unable to provide in-person service until 1 p.m. local time.

Meanwhile, in Montana, the Havre office is only able to provide telephone assistance until further notice due to the shutdown.

New York is facing several disruptions, with the East Bronx location unable to provide in-person services until 10 a.m., and Canarsie and Corning locations only providing phone assistance until further notice.

The Pennsylvania office in Wilkes-Barre is only offering phone assistance on Monday, while Bloomsburg and Reading offices have generally reverted to phone service instead of any in-person options until further notice.

In South Carolina, the Spartanburg office will only be providing phone service on Monday, and the Dallas Fair Park office in Texas will be offering the same service instead of in-person capabilities.

In West Virginia, the Logan SSA office is only available by telephone.

In Wyoming, beneficiaries relying on the Cody office will need to use phone services until further notice. ...

     Some of these have to do with local conditions which might occur anytime. Some of these have to do with the reduction in staffing at Social Security. Some of these have to do with the government shutdown.  When people aren't being paid, they're not as enthusiastic about showing up for work when they're not feeling so well.  

October 10 Is Coming Soon

      The first paycheck that federal employees will miss due to the shutdown is apparently October 10. Will that be the whole check missing or just part of it?

Only Five Of Thirty People At Work

      From CBS News:

…  In Atlanta, some residents who tried to file critical paperwork at the Social Security office downtown say they're having a hard time ensuring they get their payments.

CBS News Atlanta saw countless people turned away by security on Thursday. A federal worker said the office is severely understaffed since employees aren't being paid to come to work. …

The office isn't closed, but a Social Security Administration spokesperson said they have reduced services. A federal worker said that only five out of 30 people who were supposed to be in the office came to work on Thursday. …

Using The Shutdown As An Excuse?

      I am hearing reports that some Social Security field offices in at least two states are refusing to deal with attorneys and others during the government shutdown. Of course, I’ve heard nothing suggesting this is authorized. I have a vague recollection that this happened in an earlier shutdown before field offices were told to knock it off.

BLS Operations To Suspend Due To Government Shutdown

      From the New York Times:

… The Bureau of Labor Statistics, which produces the monthly jobs data, will “suspend all operations” if Congress and the president fail to reach a deal to extend funding for the federal government before a Tuesday midnight deadline, according to a contingency plan released by the Department of Labor. Data releases scheduled during a government shutdown “will not be released,” and data collection for future reports will cease, the memo said. …

     So, why does this matter for Social Security? The annual Cost of Living Adjustment (COLA) for Social Security would ordinarily be announced soon after the BLS report due this week. That will have to be delayed. We have until December for this, so there’s time. However, future COLAs could become unreliable due to the gap in BLS data collection. Is it even possible for them to ever catch up? Their staffing levels have also been cut.  I don’t think BLS was affected like this in prior government shutdowns. 

Shutdown Coming

   

  Take a look at Social Security’s final plan for the government shutdown almost certainly coming at midnight. 

     Best wishes to all affected. This is awful for everyone.

No Government Shutdown

      There won’t be a government shutdown because Senate Democrats are craven cowards.

WEP/GPO Bill Advances While Government Shutdown Looms

     The Hill reports that the bill to end the Windfall Elimination Provision and the Government Pension Offset passed a crucial vote in the Senate yesterday 73-27. This isn’t final passage but the margin suggests that the bill is likely to pass. It has already been passed the House of Representatives.

    In other legislative news, President-elect Trump seems to be ordering a government shutdown. At least he’s ordering Republican legislators not to vote for the Continuing Resolution they just negotiated with Democrats. The GOP can’t pass the CR without Democratic votes in this Congress and probably not in the next. Most of Social Security will stay open if the shutdown happens beginning December 20 but there would be no money to continue paying salaries for long. I have no idea what the endgame is here. 

     If you voted for Trump, this is the chaos you voted for.

The Appropriations Situation

 

    From Yahoo News:

As Republicans start laying out their proposals for what spending to cut next year, Social Security Administration employees are warning that their budget could mean longer wait times and potentially dire circumstances for beneficiaries.

In a letter to the House Appropriations Committee, the American Federation of Government Employees — a union representing hundreds of thousands of government employees — said that the GOP's proposed funding levels would "devastate the agency's ability to serve the American public."

Republicans on the committee released their Labor, Health and Human Services, Education, and Related Agencies Appropriations Bill last week, including a $183 million cut to the Social Security Administration.

The union warned that the already underfunded agency could see its standing issues, like long wait times for accessing benefits and long lines at its offices, only worsen. As of June 2023, the average wait time for callers to Social Security's customer service and information number was a little over 43 minutes, per the Social Security Administration's data. ...

    I think that we should not worry too much about what the House Appropriations Committee is doing now. The bill they're working on is absurd for many, many reasons that go way beyond Social Security. I'm not sure the bill could get a majority vote in the House of Representatives. It's a non-starter with the Senate and the President. A government shutdown would be a far superior outcome. Nothing like that bill is going anywhere.

    I see three possible outcomes:

• Republicans eventually decide to vote out an appropriations bill based upon the previous agreement between the President and the Speaker of the House. Differences are sorted out between the Senate and House and the President signs the bill. We don't seem to be heading in this direction.
• There's no agreement on a Labor-HHS appropriations bill (which includes Social Security's administrative budget) and we see endless continuing resolutions for the entire fiscal year. This hurts Social Security but there are worse possibilities. I think this is the most likely outcome but what do I know?
• There's no agreement and the House of Representatives is so dysfunctional that it can't pass a continuing resolution so there's a government shutdown. This would be politically disastrous for Republicans but, hey, if you're a Republican members of Congress from a district that Donald Trump carried by 30 point in 2020 (like most House Freedom Caucus members), what do you care? Your constituents expect you to be as obstreperous as possible. They're in the "Keep Government Out Of My Medicare" camp.
  

Updated Government Shutdown Plan

      Here’s Social Security’s newly updated plan for a government shutdown. There would be no immediate disruption for the public but, still, let’s hope this doesn’t need to be used.

Social Security Unlikely To Be Much Affected By Possible Government Shutdown

      There is talk of a partial government shutdown beginning on October 1. I hope this doesn't come to pass but if it does there should be little immediate impact at Social Security. Below is Social Security's government shutdown plan from the last time this issue came up. The plan could have been updated a bit since then but I strongly doubt that there's been a major change.

     Click on each thumbnail to view the page full size.

Can Social Security Maintain Building Security During The Partial Government Shutdown?

     I've posted here that Social Security will be unaffected by the partial government shutdown. It occurs to me that I may have been overbroad. The problem is building security. That's mostly provided by the Federal Protective Service (FPS), which is part of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and DHS is part of the shutdown. The FPS security guards at Social Security offices missed a paycheck today. They'll miss another in another two weeks. They're not going to continue working forever for free. Also, there are some Social Security offices that are located inside federal courthouses. While FPS may provide security guards within the Social Security offices inside federal courthouses, the U.S. Marshall Service provides security at the building entrances. The U.S. Marshall Service is part of the Department of Justice and it, too, is part of the partial government shutdown. The federal courts themselves are also part of the government shutdown and will close for routine business a week from today. Will the U.S. Marshall Service continue to provide building security for federal courthouses when the courts, themselves, are closed, especially given that the Marshall's Service has more urgent tasks to complete?

Exactly The Reaction The GOP Hopes For

     Mark Wohlander writes for Kentucky Today about his struggles trying to deal with Social Security, both online and by telephone. I would say that the poor service he received is proof that the Social Security Administration is underfunded and understaffed. Mr. Wohlander, however, sees it as proof that it’s a good thing there is a government shutdown, because, well, if the government can’t do a better job than this, who needs it?

     There are signs in this piece that Mr. Wohlander is a bit confused. First, he thinks that the Social Security Administration has been shut down. Not so. It’s only a part of government that’s been shut down and that part doesn’t include Social Security. He also thinks that the government shutdown has occurred because there isn’t enough money to pay for government operations. Again, not so. The money is there but there is a dispute between President Trump and Congress over how to spend it, specifically over about $5 billion that the President wants for his wall. Congress doesn’t want the wall and it’s not just Democrats in Congress who don’t want the wall. Republicans aren’t too interested in it either. Mr. Wohlander also swallows age old Republican propaganda about how he’ll never receive his Social Security benefits because the money has been “stolen.” This is what passes for a thoughtful piece in a red state.

No Government Shutdown For Social Security

     In case you were wondering, the "government shutdown" that the President is threatening in order to get his wall is only a partial shutdown. Most of the government, including the Social Security Administration, is not affected because the appropriations bills covering those agencies have already been passed by Congress and signed by the President. This is one of the many facts that contribute to the President's weak position. There's also the facts that most voters don't want the wall, Republican members of Congress are, at best, lukewarm on the wall, and Democrats will control the House of Representatives in less than two weeks. Also, the President is generally quite unpopular and even Republican members of Congress are dismayed by many of the President's recent actions, such as the withdrawal from Syria. I suppose it won't dawn on it until he hears it from Fox and Friends or Vladimir Putin but Trump has little leverage on anything that involves Congress apart from judicial appointments.

Discouraging Status Of FY Appropriation

     Congressional work on the appropriations bills needed to fund the government in Fiscal Year (FY) 2019, which begins on October 1, 2018, has proceeded along what used to be a normal track, with each House of Congress passing separate appropriations bills for broad sectors of the government with differences to be ironed out in a conference committee. The conference committee hasn't finished its work. I'm not sure it's even been appointed but things are far ahead of recent years where agencies worked on continuing resolutions (CRs) well into the new fiscal year and sometimes for the entire fiscal year.

     This does not mean that there will be no government shutdown or prolonged CR this time around. Congress can only do so much. There's another branch of government whose headquarter is at the other end of Pennsylvania Avenue. Some experts think there will be a government shutdown, mostly over the President's insistence on tens of billions of dollars in funding for a border wall. Even most Republicans aren't eager for that wall, much less a government shutdown over it, but the President believes it vitally important. He may even think it's just what he needs to get Republican voters out to the polls in November. I'd call that nuts but I'm not a Republican voter.

     Whenever an appropriation bill gets passed, it's almost certain to be bad news for Social Security. Both the House and Senate passed appropriations bills give the Social Security Administration $11 billion in operating funds, which is what the President requested, but which is $400 million below the appropriation for the current fiscal year. The cut is even worse than it sounds, however. You have to consider inflation which is about 2.9%. Social Security needed an increase of about $330 million just to stay even. The agency will effectually receive a 6.4% cut in its operating budget. That's going to hurt.

     If you want the best case scenario, it would be that despite the appropriations progress already made, we'll still end up with a CR and that the CR will extend past the start of the new Congress next January and that Democrats will control one or both Houses of Congress which will allow them to make demands with a higher appropriation for Social Security being one of their demands. I don't think that's going to happen. If nothing else, Democrats winning one or both Houses of Congress would concentrate the attention of Republicans who would rush to enact appropriations bills before their power diminishes.

When Will The Budget Drama End?

     The federal government is operating on a Continuing Resolution (CR) that funds government operations only through next Friday, March 23. Unless something is passed before then the entire federal government, including Social Security, will shut down. 

     Congress is working on an omnibus funding bill to fund all of the federal government through the rest of the fiscal year. In more normal times, this is done with a series of bills covering different parts of the federal government. 

     There are still disagreements over the omnibus and some predictions that another short CR will be needed. 

     The current draft or drafts of this bill have not been released to the public. There's no definite sign that Social Security's appropriation is in dispute but we can't be sure. 

     The AARP has just sent a letter to Congressional leaders asking for higher administrative funding so they must think something is still up in the air.

To Be Continued

     That big Senate bill that settles all budget matters for the next two years that you've been reading about -- it's not quite what it's advertised to be. For one thing, it actually only funds the government through March 23. For another, it's only a budget bill. Budget bills only set top line limits. They don't specify what each agency gets. That's done in appropriations bills. There could easily be a partial government shutdown over one or more of the appropriations bills and the Labor-HHS appropriations bill that includes Social Security is always the most contentious of the appropriations bills. So, we don't know how much Social Security will get and we can't say that the threat of a government shutdown affecting Social Security has passed.

Shutdown Ends

     The Senate has voted for a new continuing resolution that will reopen the government. I think the bill might have to go back to the House of Representatives for further action and to the President for a signature but those would be formalities. This shutdown is all but over.