Inflation And Social Security Disability Recipients

     From The Bulletin on Retirement and Disability:

... Social Security Disability (SSD) program beneficiaries, like other consumers, have been negatively affected by inflation over the past several years. In a survey from June of 2023, more than half (59 percent) of SSD program beneficiaries reported higher prices for the disability-related goods and services they need to purchase, and more than one-quarter reported reducing food spending to cover disability-related costs, Zachary Morris and Stephanie Rennane found in Examining the Impact of Inflation on the Economic Security of Disability Program Beneficiaries (NBER RDRC Paper NB23-08).

Using new survey data, the researchers found that 82 percent of beneficiaries reported out-of-pocket expenses related to their disability, with average annual spending of $4,412 and median spending of $384 as of June 2023. Fifty-nine percent of beneficiaries reported higher spending on disability-related goods and services compared to two years earlier. In response to these rising costs, 25 percent of beneficiaries indicated they went into debt; 43 percent found recent COLA adjustments insufficient to maintain their standard of living. ...

In Person Service Matters

    From Effects Of Suspending In-Person Services At Social Security Administration Field Offices On Disability Applications And Allowances by Monica Farid, Michael T. Anderson, Gina Freeman, and Christopher Earles, a study for the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College:

In this study, we examine the effect of the suspension of in-person services at Social Security Administration (SSA) field offices during the COVID-19 pandemic on applications ...

The paper found that:

• There were systematic differences in the characteristics of applicants by mode of application. In-person applicants were older, less likely to have completed high school, and less likely to speak English compared to phone or online applicants.
  

• The suspension caused a 6-percent decrease in the volume of applications, implying that not everyone who wanted to apply in-person was able to apply using other modes. The effect was larger for Supplemental Security Income (SSI) applications compared to Social Security Disability Insurance (DI) applications.
  

• The suspension of in-person services caused some would-be in-person applicants to apply by phone, but it did not cause an increase in the volume of online applications.
  

• We did not find evidence that the suspension disproportionately affected groups of applicants defined by educational attainment, age, or English-speaking status.
  

• Our estimates imply that in-person service suspensions explain more than 50 percent of the decline in SSI and DI applications during the pandemic. ...
  

    The first and fourth points above seem to be in tension with each other.

Remote Work And Disability

     From Does Remote Work Help Older People With Disabilities? by Siyan Liu and Laura D. Quinby, a study for the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College:

...The shift to remote work that started during COVID and has persisted may have improved job prospects for older people with disabilities by reducing barriers to employment. Consistent with this view, this brief finds that nearly all of the post-pandemic employment gain for older people with disabilities has been in teleworkable occupations, and this pattern holds even after controlling for other factors. Remote work benefits older workers with disabilities by allowing some to reenter the labor force and others to switch jobs instead of exiting work. ...

      Let's remember that whatever benefits there are to disabled people from remote work can only help a part of the disabled population. It doesn't help blue collar workers. People who work in offices, such as most of the people reading this blog, may not be aware that most workers don't work in offices and don't hold jobs that allow remote work.

The Effects Of Incarceration On Disability Benefits

     From The Impact of Past Incarceration on Later-Life DI and SSI Receipt by Gary V. Engelhardt:

• Past incarceration reduces the career years of employment, in general, and the likelihood of meeting the DI [Disability Insurance] duration test, in particular, reducing eligibility for DI. 
• Given the likely reduction in eligibility, however, past incarceration leads to a 30-percentage-point increase in the likelihood of applying for DI or SSI benefits, with an 18-percentage-point increase in the likelihood of benefit receipt. 
• Past incarceration raises by about 20 percentage points the likelihood the individual is in poverty as measured by the federal poverty threshold. 

 The policy implications of the findings are:

• At the aggregate level, DI rolls are about 300,000 higher for 50-61-year-old men because of past incarceration; SSI rolls are about 50,000 higher. 
• Incarceration has resulted in about 375,000 additional men between 50 and 61 years of age being under the federal poverty threshold in the 2010-2016 period.  ...

    What I've seen over the years is that imprisonment is bad for your health. Unhealthy food, incredibly stressful living conditions and poor medical treatment are a big part of it but probably not all. Certainly, many convicted felons arrive in prison already suffering from significant health problems, both physical and mental.

What About Occupational Information? Does Scientific Integrity Apply To That?

     From today's Federal Register:

The SSA is soliciting comments and suggestions from the public on the DRAFT Scientific Integrity Policy of the Social Security Administration (DRAFT SSA Scientific Integrity Policy). The DRAFT SSA Scientific Integrity Policy codifies expectations to preserve scientific integrity throughout SSA scientific activities, establishes key roles and responsibilities for those who will lead the agency’s scientific integrity program, and, as appropriate, establishes relevant reporting and evaluation mechanisms.

    Social Security uses occupational information in determining which disability claims to approve. The source it's using now mostly dates back to 1979! Everyone concedes that it's hopelessly out of date but they're still using it. They've been working on a replacement now for well over a decade but almost nothing has been released and the agency is extremely vague on what's going on and when they'll be finished. I'm not the only one who's convinced that they keep delaying releasing anything because the data doesn't jibe with what the agency wants it to say. I think they want to keep massaging the data until it says that they don't have to change who they're approving and who they're denying even a little bit. Am I being unfair to Social Security? They can always make a full release of the data collected to date and give a good explanation for the delay. Does anyone still believe that this remains a good faith effort to collect data?

Social Security Needs More Offices In Rural Areas, Not Fewer

Bryan County, OK

     From Barriers and Communications Preferences of Rural Populations: A Scoping Review by Megan Henly, Shreya Paul, Debra Brucker, Andrew J. Houtenville, Kelly Nye-Lengerman and Stacia Bach

Key Findings:


Rural areas of the United States warrant separate attention when considering how to communicate information about federal programs in part because their geography affects how information can be shared effectively (remoteness results in greater distance between field offices and lower level of broadband internet access) and in part because rural communities have a higher representation of many program-eligible groups (e.g., those older than 65, those who have a disability, and those who are low-income).

Mode of program communication affects the likelihood of the information reaching the public. Traditionally, the Social Security Administration mailed statements to all workers. In addition, private-sector employers often trained new hires about funding their retirements during orientation. As both these forms of communication have been substantially reduced since 2011, the public’s knowledge of OASDI benefits has been low.

When considering the general shift toward online information dissemination, this is a particular concern for those in rural areas, people with disabilities, and groups with low digital literacy. Broadband access is not as ubiquitous in rural areas as it is in nonrural ones. Perhaps as a result, many who reside in rural places are digitally illiterate and would have difficulty navigate online. In addition, most federal websites do not meet federal accessibility guidelines, creating a barrier for those with disabilities.

Community context is important, particularly when considering program enrollment that may carry a stigma, such as SSI or food and energy assistance. Identifying local community partners who can provide technical assistance may help. For communities of particularly marginalized groups (e.g., the unhoused, those recently released from prison, low English proficiency individuals, and those with serious mental health disabilities), having dedicated staff trained in dealing with populations facing vulnerabilities may be particularly useful. ...

Workers Say The Physical Demands Of Their Jobs Are Increasing

     From the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College:

For obvious reasons, people who do physically demanding work are prone to injuring themselves on the job and are more likely than office workers to apply for federal disability benefits.

But is technology changing this relationship?

We know technology has caused a decline in manual labor, and the blue-collar jobs that remain are also easier to perform when machinery and computers are doing more of the heavy lifting workers used to do – think warehouse robots that alleviate the need to lift and carry heavy boxes.

But new research based on a survey of couples between ages 51 and 61 – a population that is particularly vulnerable to illness and musculoskeletal disabilities – finds no evidence they feel the physical demands on them are lessening. If anything, they said, the requirements for motions like stooping, lifting, or crouching have increased somewhat since the early 1990s.

Their perceptions conflict with the other studies showing an easing in the demands on blue-collar workers. But those studies are not based on what older people are saying about their jobs but on analyses of an occupational database that rates the intensity of the specific tasks required in each job. One example is how many pounds a warehouse worker must lift and how often that is required. ...

How Many More Kids Should Be Drawing SSI?

     From How Many Medicaid Recipients Might Be Eligible For SSI by Michael Levere and David Wittenburg for the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College:

Children’s participation in the federal Supplemental Security Income (SSI) program has declined substantially over the past decade. Many children with disabilities might be eligible for SSI, yet barriers such as a lack of knowledge of the program or perceived challenges with applying may limit participation. In this paper, we use machine learning models on Medicaid administrative data to estimate the number and characteristics of children who are potentially eligible for SSI but do not currently receive benefits.

The paper found that:

• A substantial number of children are potentially eligible for SSI. Depending on the exact probability used to define potential eligibility, the increase could likely range from 10 percent to 55 percent increase in enrollment (relative to the current number of SSI recipients). ...

    Note that the title of the study is misleading. They're not talking about all potential SSI recipients; just children.

Social Security Bulletin Released

     The Social Security Administration has posted the most recent issue of the Social Security Bulletin, its scholarly publication, which is now in its 83rd year. Here are summaries of two articles from this issue of the Bulletin:

Mixed-Methods Study to Understand Public Use of Social Security's Online Platform by Lila Rabinovich and Francisco Perez-Arce

In this article, the authors use quantitative analysis of survey data and qualitative analysis of personal interviews to examine public awareness and use of online my Social Security accounts. The accounts are the Social Security Administration's platform for providing both general and personalized retirement-preparation information, including benefit estimators, along with other agency services. The authors explore internet literacy and demographic factors that may affect platform access and use. They also review the experiences and reactions reported by individual platform users.

The Alignment Between Self-Reported and Administrative Measures of Disability Program Application and Benefit Receipt in the Health and Retirement Studyby Jody Schimmel Hyde and Amal Harrati

This study examines the differences between self-reported data and administrative records on Social Security Disability Insurance (DI) and Supplemental Security Income (SSI) application and benefit receipt using survey data from the Health and Retirement Study linked to the Social Security Administration's Form 831 records and Disability Analysis File. The authors find that aggregate survey reports of DI and SSI application and benefit receipt are lower than administrative records indicate and that individual-level misreporting is common, although both sources indicate similar incidence patterns.

Children Being Raised By Their Grandparents Poorly Served By Social Security

     From How Can Social Security Children's Benefits Help Grandparents Raise Grandchildren?, by Liu, Siyan, and Laura D. Quinby of the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College:

In 2020, around two million grandparents were responsible for the basic needs of their grandchildren, with grandparent care concentrated in historically disadvantaged communities. Despite being particularly vulnerable to financial insecurity, most grandparents are ineligible for formal support -- such as subsidies for foster parents, housing assistance, and Social Security dependent child benefits -- because they raise their grandchildren outside of the foster care system. Using the Health and Retirement Study and American Community Survey, this study documents how grandparent caregivers differ from typical grandparents in terms of time and money spent on grandchildren, demographic characteristics, and economic resources. It then evaluates how their finances would improve if eligibility for child benefits were aligned with the more lenient tax criteria for claiming a dependent grandchild.

    Being "outside of the foster care system" is definitely a problem but the Social Security aspect of it is that if you're on retirement benefits from Social Security, only your minor children and adult children who became disabled before age 22 can obtain child's benefits on your account. Your grandchildren are only eligible for these child benefits under very limited circumstances. 

    The children could get benefits if the grandparents adopted them but the grandparents are generally scared to try. The problem is that usually the children come to live with their grandparents because the parents have serious problems with substance abuse, other mental illness or are abusive. The grandparents are scared to rock the boat with an adoption petition. The parents may take the children back to a disordered, dangerous environment.

    The Social Security Act could be altered to give children's benefits to grandchildren in the custody of their grandparents. A change along these lines would certainly be family friendly but at this point no Social Security legislation, whatever its merits, can pass Congress.

Borderline Disorder And Social Security Disability

     From Course And Predictors Of Social Security Disability Insurance In Patients With Borderline Personality Disorder Over 24 years Of Prospective Follow-up by Kramer, U., Temes, C.M., Frankenburg, F.R. et al:

Methods:

A total of 290 inpatients with BPD [Borderline Personality Disorder] were interviewed at baseline and 12 consecutive follow-up waves, each separated by two years, after index hospitalization. Included were also 72 inpatients with other personality disorders. Surviving patients were reinterviewed. A series of interviews and self-report measures were used to assess psychosocial functioning and treatment history, axis I and II disorders, and childhood/adult adversity. 

Results:

Results show that rates of SSDI [Social Security Disability Insurance] utilization were relatively stable over 24 years of follow-up (on average, 47.2% of the patients with BPD were on SSDI). Patients with BPD were three times more likely to be on SSDI than patients with other PDs. Patients with BPD displayed flexibility in their usage of SSDI. By 24 years, 46% of patients remitted, out of which 85% experienced recurrence and 50% of the patients had a new onset over time. In multivariate analyses, four variables were found to predict SSDI status in patients with BPD over time. These variables were: age 26 or older, lower IQ, severity of non-sexual childhood abuse, and presence of PTSD. ...

    There is one thing about this study that make me wonder. Hospitalization is uncommon for Borderline Disorder itself yet this study tracked patients who had been hospitalized. That would suggest that these patients either had unusually bad cases of Borderline Disorder or had other psychiatric diagnoses in addition to Borderline Disorder. I will say that sometimes those with Borderline Disorder are hospitalized by mistake because the behaviors of the patients involved suggested some other disorder such as Bipolar Disorder. There's certainly the intensity of symptoms with Borderline Disorder, just not that much risk of suicide or homicide, which, in general, is what gets you hospitalized for a psychiatric disorder these days.

    The fact that patients with Borderline Disorder were much more likely to be on Social Security disability benefits than those with other personality disorders is not surprising. To begin with, Social Security approves almost no one based upon a personality disorder alone. However, Borderline is one of the worst personality disorders you can have. If anyone is going to be approved on a personality disorder, it's likely to be someone with Borderline Disorder. Also, those with other really severe personality, disorders such as Antisocial Personality Disorder, are likely to spend a lot of time in prison. That's not the case with Borderline Disorder.

    Clients with Borderline Disorder are difficult for me to deal with but it's not just their relationships with lawyers. People with Borderline Disorder can't maintain relationships with anyone, including employers. That's the problem. The fact that less than 50% of those with Borderline Disorder are on Social Security disability benefits is proof of how hard it is to be approved for Social Security disability benefits. Very few of those with a Borderline Disorder diagnosis work more than intermittently. That's just a fact. If you have a disorder that prevents you from working on a regular basis, shouldn't you be approved for Social Security disability benefits?

Disability Insurance Income Saves Lives

     From Disability Insurance Income Saves Lives by Alexander Gelber, Timothy Moore, Zhuan Pei and Alexander Strand:

We show that higher payments from US Social Security Disability Insurance (DI) reduce mortality. Using administrative data on new DI beneficiaries, we exploit discontinuities in the benefit formula through a regression kink design. We estimate that $1,000 more in annual DI payments decreases the annual mortality rate of lower-income beneficiaries by approximately 0.18 to 0.35 percentage points, implying an elasticity of mortality with respect to DI income of around -0.6 to -1.0. We find no robust evidence of an effect of DI income on the mortality of higher-income beneficiaries. The mortality effects imply large welfare benefits of disability insurance.

Does "Temporary Disability Insurance" Reduce Social Security Disability Claims?

     From Does Temporary Disability Insurance Reduce Older Workers’ Reliance On Social Security Disability Insurance? by Siyan Liu, Laura D. Quinby, and James Giles:

Temporary Disability Insurance (TDI) provides workers with wage replacement while they recover from a serious medical condition. Proponents of a national paid leave program argue that these benefits allow workers to adjust to health shocks and return to the workforce, reducing reliance on Social Security Disability Insurance (DI). Yet, TDI could also encourage DI application by providing income during the lengthy qualification period. This study uses the 1992-2020 Health and Retirement Study to evaluate how access to TDI benefits affects the likelihood that older workers end up on DI after a work-limiting health shock. Specifically, it compares the experience of workers in states with mandated TDI benefits to those living in states without such policies.

The paper found that:

TDI helps workers with severe impairments stay in the labor force.

Specifically, workers who develop severe disabilities are 26 percentage points more likely to be employed and 16 percentage points less likely to apply for DI when they have TDI benefits.

However, workers whose impairments do not qualify for DI may use TDI to facilitate early retirement. ...

Click on image to view full size

     I have serious problems with this study. First, the authors didn't realize that the generally used term isn't Temporary Disability Insurance but Short Term Disability which suggests that they didn't get very far into anything other than abstruse math, such as "𝑈𝑆=𝑈(𝑤𝑆(𝐻)+𝑦)+𝜑𝑆𝐻." Second, and far more important, the authors are comparing states like New York, California and Rhode Island with states like Iowa, Louisiana and Georgia. There are major demographic and economic differences between these states that likely explain most if not all the differences they're finding. You could easily produce a study demonstrating that disability claims are more common in areas where college football is highly popular but do you think that means that following college football causes disability claims?

    In general, I'm highly, highly skeptical of those who think they can manipulate sick people into working longer. That might or might not be in their best interests but I don't think it's possible anyway. The factors that go into producing disability claims such as illness often combined with adverse vocational factors such as age and lack of work skills can't be manipulated out of the way. Even if you can get people back to work it's usually only postponing the inevitable by a few months.

Variance By Race In Applying For Social Security Disability Benefits

     From How Does the Social Security Claiming Process Vary by Race?, a report by the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College:

Disability Incidence Rate Down

From What Factors Explain the Drop in Disability Insurance Rolls from 2015 to 2019? by Siyan Liu and Laura D. Quinby for the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College:

 

Average Age Of Disability Applicants Increased Sharply About 10 Years Ago

    From What Factors Explain the Drop in Disability Insurance Rolls from 2015 to 2019? by Siyan Liu and Laura D. Quinby for the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College:

 

Disability Allowance Rates Plummeted After 2000

    From What Factors Explain the Drop in Disability Insurance Rolls from 2015 to 2019? by Siyan Liu and Laura D. Quinby for the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College:

 

Disability Incidence Rate Goes Up -- Until Age 62

    From What Factors Explain the Drop in Disability Insurance Rolls from 2015 to 2019? by Siyan Liu and Laura D. Quinby for the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College:

 

New Awards And Terminations

    From What Factors Explain the Drop in Disability Insurance Rolls from 2015 to 2019? by Siyan Liu and Laura D. Quinby for the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College:

 

Why Are Fewer People Drawing Disability Benefits Now?

     From What Factors Explain the Drop in Disability Insurance Rolls from 2015 to 2019? by Siyan Liu and Laura D. Quinby for the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College:

In 2015, the number of individuals receiving Social Security Disability Insurance (DI) benefits began to drop for the first time in two decades. This drop was caused by a wave of terminations, as beneficiaries aged into the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) program, combined with a steep decline in the incidence rate (the number of new DI awards relative to the insured population). ...

The paper found that:

• A strong economy accounted for about half of the drop in the incidence rate.
• Policy changes – specifically the retraining of Administrative Law Judges – also accounted for about half the drop.
• Population aging put slight upward pressure on the incidence rate.
• In terms of the total number on the disability rolls, the impact of aging on terminations far exceeds its impact on new awards.

The policy implications are:

• The time may have come to somewhat rebalance the goals of DI from encouraging labor force participation to protecting vulnerable people.
• Congress may want to consider merging the DI and OASI trust funds. ...

    I'll pull out some interesting charts from this paper over the next few days.