Roundup Of Debt Ceiling News

Here is this morning's news concerning the debt ceiling crisis that threatens Social Security payments among other things:

• House Speaker John Boehner was forced to postpone a vote on his party's plan for extending the debt ceiling because he did not have enough votes to pass it. It is unclear whether he can get the votes solely from among Republicans. Republicans in the House has no recent experience in negotiating for Democratic votes.The Republican dilemma changes the equation as the Associated Press notes: "Republicans will try again Friday. If they continue to fail, then President Barack Obama and Senate Democrats will have extensive leverage to shape a bill to their liking and practically dare the House to reject it and send the nation into default." On the other hand, Ezra Klein warns that "Anyone who says they know exactly what happens next is lying." By the way, one problem for Republicans is that their bill includes $17 billion for Pell grants, which got some Republican votes but which some other Republicans regard as pork.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 62 points yesterday. It is down 440 points on the week heading into today's trading. Interest rates on U.S. Treasury notes have moved sharply higher. Investors have pulled billions of dollars out of money market funds in recent days. Moody's is threatening to lower the credit ratings of 177 municipal bond issuers -- and yes, that is related to the debt ceiling impasse. If this sounds like developments that don't threaten you, trust me each and every person reading this is threatened by these developments.
• Update: The Dow is down by over 100 points in early trading.  Harry Reid, the Senate Majority Leader, has just told the Senate that "The last train is leaving the station" as he starts to move forward with his bill to raise the debt ceiling.
• Further update: The President is speaking to the country urging quick action. This is a tweet from an Agence France Presse (AFP) reporter: "Looks like US Senate votes at 1 am Sun, 7:30 am Mon, final #debt vote Tues, per a Dem aide. " This would then go to the House of Representatives which would decide whether we have a default. 
• Further update: It looks like House Republicans may bring a bill to the floor under which "The debt ceiling would be raised immediately but not by enough to get the government through next year. To get the second debt ceiling increase, House Republicans want a balanced budget constitutional amendment to pass both chambers first and be referred to the states." The Senate would never agree to that. 
• Further update: From Michael Shear writing on his New York Times blog:

Senate Democrats said Friday that they were prepared for an all-night battle on the Senate floor that could go into the wee hours of Sunday morning unless Republicans began negotiating on a bipartisan plan to raise the debt ceiling....

If Republicans filibuster that vote, Democrats say they are prepared to repeatedly require Republicans to object to the bill’s passage, keeping them in their seats for hours and creating a middle-of-the-night legislative spectacle for the cameras.

And from Ezra Klein:

John Boehner has a problem. He likes being Speaker of the House of Representatives. He would like to continue to be Speaker of the House of Representatives. But being Speaker of the House of Representatives means both leading the House Republicans and compromising to get things done. And in this Republican Party, at this moment, if you want to lead the House Republicans, you can’t compromise to get things done.

We’ve now seen the same farce play out four times. Republican leaders get close to a deal and then, just before they can close it, their members revolt and they have to pull back....

In order to have any chance of surviving as Speaker of the House, Boehner needs to produce legislation that is completely unacceptable to the White House and the Senate. Their opposition is a feature, not a bug. Consider how he sold his plan to Laura Ingraham: “President Obama hates it. Harry Reid hates it. Nancy Pelosi hates it. Why would Republicans want to be on the side of President Obama, Harry Reid, and Nancy Pelosi [is] beyond me.”

Why anyone would think that a plan loathed by the Majority Leader of the Senate and the President of the United States would be signed into law is beyond me. And since then, Boehner has moved the plan considerably to the right. But that’s because he’s not legislating. He’s just trying to survive.

It’s not just that Boehner’s party doesn’t like any of the viable compromises on the table. It’s that they don’t like compromise, full stop.

Expediting Vocational Assessment At Steps 4 and 5?

Social Security has requested approval from the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) for proposed "Regulatory revisions related to expediting the vocational assessment at steps 4 and 5 of the sequential review process."

New Non-Attorney Withholding Rules

Social Security published interim final rules in the Federal Register yesterday concerning direct payment of fees to some non-attorney representatives. The new rules contain numerous small changes.

New Online Social Security Search Webpage

The National Organization of Social Security Claimant's Representatives (NOSSCR) has created an online search webpage aimed at those doing research on Social Security. It includes separate searches on Social Security's website, the Social Security Act, Social Security regulations, Social Security rulings, Social Security acquiescence rulings, HALLEX, POMS and Google Scholar.

Roundup Of Debt Ceiling News

Today's news on the debt ceiling impasse that threatens to delay Social Security payments:

•  The House Republican leadership is putting extraordinary pressure on its members to accept its debt ceiling hike bill, pressure that  included an order to "get your ass in line." This is not sitting well with some prominent Republican supporters. The pressure may allow the House to pass the bill sometime today, although that is not assured.
• The Dow Jones Industrial average was down 199 points yesterday. and was down 378 points on the week as of yesterday's closing bell. The market is up a bit this morning on good home sales news.
• The Onion has a preview of the change that debt ceiling pressures may bring to Social Security.
• Ezra Klein, who is an astute observer, says that the Democrats may not be able to win this one but that they will have their chance in December 2012 when the Bush tax cuts are set to expire.
• The New York Times has a story on what the U.S. Treasury will do in case the debt ceiling isn't raised. According to the Times "Officials have said repeatedly that Treasury does not have the legal authority to pay bills based on political, moral or economic considerations" and is likely to pay bills in the order in which they come due.
• What is the difference between the debt ceiling bills in the House and the Senate? According to TPM they are pretty similar except the House bill would give authority to borrow $900 billion now and another $1.6 trillion next year but only "if and when Congress passes, and [the President] signs, legislation to reduce the deficit by $1.8 trillion." The point of this is to force dramatic cuts in Medicare and Medicaid and also to deflect attention away from the Ryan budget plan which would effectively end Medicare and Medicaid.

SSR 11-1p Not Intended To Affect Cases Where New Claim And Appeal Already Pending

I am hearing that Social Security has decided not to apply Social Security Ruling 11-1p, which prohibits the agency from taking a new claim while an old one is pending on appeal, to cases where a new claim and an appeal are already pending. I am also hearing that there will be an Emergency Message to Social Security employees on this new procedure shortly, perhaps today. Since it may be some time before this Emergency Message appears on Social Security's website, I would appreciate it if someone could forward a copy to me. I don't think this is intended to be any sort of secret.

New Ruling Will Prohibit New Claim While Appeal Is Pending

From Social Security Ruling 11-1p which will be published in the Federal Register tomorrow:

Under the new procedures we are adopting in this Ruling, generally you will no longer be allowed to have two claims for the same type of benefits pending at the same time. If you want to file a new disability claim under the same title and of the same type as a disability claim pending at any level of administrative review, you will have to choose between pursuing your administrative review rights on the pending disability claim or declining to pursue further administrative review and filing a new application.

On an initial cursory look at this Ruling, I do not see any statement concerning cases where a new claim and an appeal are already pending. I do not understand how Social Security could issue this ruling without stating what it intends to happen on cases already pending.

Update: The reason I did not see any statement concerning cases where a new claim and an appeal are already pending is because the Ruling does not address this situation. In important respects, this Ruling appears to have been drafted hastily with no consideration of history.

Roundup Of Debt Ceiling News

Today's roundup of news concerning the debt ceiling that threatens Social Security checks -- and the U.S. economy:

• The New York Times reports that the Treasury can probably continue to pay its bills for several days after August 2, probably until August 10. Great news. We can keep this crisis going another week!
• Republicans in the House of Representatives are in the sort of disarray normally seen among Democrats. The debt ceiling bill proposed by the Speaker of the House turned out not to save as much money as he had said so it is being revised. More important, the chances of passage of that bill in the House, even after revision, are looking worse and worse as the debt ceiling crisis reveals fault lines within the Republican party. Floor action on the bill has been delayed. If the House cannot pass the Boehner bill, Republican bargaining power decreases and the chances of default increase.
• To rally their troops in the House, Republicans played a video clip from the movie The Town. In the clip Ben Affleck says "I need your help. I can't tell you what it is. You can never ask me about it later. And we're going to hurt some people." He and another character then put on hockey masks, bludgeon two men with sticks and shoot a man in the leg.
• The Dow went down by 91 points yesterday.