How Republican Congressional Leaders Deal With Their Rank And File

     Monday night there were press reports that the budget deal recently being announced would include dramatic changes in Social Security disability. There would be $168 billion in cuts which would be around a 10% cut. Actually, the cuts were tiny. What happened? From what I've been able to piece together the $168 billion figure came from a fact sheet that Republican Congressional leaders released to their members. Conventionally, in preparing this sort of document, increases or decreases in spending are stated for a ten year time period. About $150 billion a year are paid in Social Security Disability Insurance Benefits. A $168 billion cut over ten years would be a dramatic 10% cut in benefits. However, the $168 billion wasn't for ten years. It was for 75 years! A 75 year time frame is occasionally used in discussing Social Security's long term financing but I don't think I've ever seen such a time frame used in discussing budgets. Republican leaders released only the fact sheet until late Monday night when the actual bill was posted. I would call the Republican fact sheet deliberately misleading.

     There may have been another deception. The bill awaiting Congressional approval transfers part of the FICA tax revenues from the Retirement and Survivors Trust Fund to the Disability Trust Fund for only three years. That means the Disability Trust Fund problems are solved for only three years, until 2019, when Republicans get another crack at the program, right? Take a look at today's New York Times. It says that the Disability Trust Fund problem is solved until 2022. How can that be? The bill will increase the portion of FICA that goes to the Disability Trust Fund from 1.8% to 2.37% for only three years. However, it appears that this reallocation for only three years will be enough to solve the problem for six years. If they had been trying to solve the problem for only three years, the reallocation would have been smaller. Of course, it would be better to solve the problem for the indefinite future but six years is a lot better than three years. Maybe there was some other reason for drafting the bill like this but it looks to me like Congressional Republican leaders wanted to make it appear that they'd get another crack at Social Security disability sooner than they will.

Statement From Social Security Works

     A statement from Social Security Works, a major advocacy group:

“Last night, the Republican leadership agreed to release their hostages: the need to raise the debt limit, the need to keep the government operating, and the need to ensure that all Social Security benefits can continue to be paid in full and on time beyond 2016.  When hostage takers release their hostages, we are, of course, relieved that the hostages are no longer in harm’s way, but this is nothing to celebrate.  That the ransom isn’t steeper is also not something to celebrate.

Among the ransom is a diversion of Social Security resources towards virtually nonexistent fraud.  Those provisions will likely require workers with disabilities to wait longer to receive their earned benefits and may prevent some from receiving their earned benefits completely.  That is wrong.  The legislation has some good provisions, along with the ransom.  It does ensure that Medicare beneficiaries will not experience drastically large premium increases.  It also closes a loophole that was introduced in the law relatively recently that allows wealthier Americans to game the system by claiming extra benefits inconsistent with the goals of the program.  Though some provisions are positive, Social Security legislation, as a matter of principle, should go through regular order, in the light of day.

If that were done, Social Security would be expanded. As the overwhelming majority of Americans recognize, Social Security’s one shortcoming is that its benefits are too low. Congress should follow the will of the people by expanding those modest but vital benefits and restore the program to long range actuarial balance by requiring the wealthiest among us to pay their fair share.”

The Actual Language From The Big Deal -- Doesn't Look Dramatic But Hard To Understand

     The reporting from various media sources last night on the Social Security provisions of the deal between the White House and Congressional leaders varied from confused to inadequate to completely wrong. We have the actual bill now. Here is some of the actual text of the bill with my interpretation, or maybe I should say questions, in brackets and bolded:

• Not later than October 1, 2022, the Commissioner of Social Security shall take any necessary actions, subject to the availability of appropriations, to ensure that cooperative disability investigations units have been established, in areas where there is co-operation with local law enforcement agencies, that would cover each of the 50 States, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, Guam, the Northern Mariana Islands, the Virgin Islands, and American Samoa. [Congress demands that Social Security extend cooperative disability reviews to every state and even to the Northern Mariana Islands but limits this to the extent that Congress appropriates money, dramatically undercutting the demand]
  
• Section 3 811(a) of such Act (42 U.S.C. 1011(a)) ... is further amended by striking the period at the end and inserting ‘‘, except that in the case of a person who receives a fee or other income for services performed in connection with any determination with respect to benefits under this title (including a claimant representative, translator, or current or former employee of the Social Security Administration), or who is a physician or other health care provider who submits, or causes the submission of, medical or other evidence in connection with any such determination, such person shall be guilty of a felony and upon conviction thereof shall be fined under title 18, United States Code, or imprisoned for not more than ten years, or both.’’. [I don't understand. It's now a crime to submit medical evidence in support of a disability claim? This doesn't make sense to me.]
• Section 1140(b) of such Act (42 U.S.C. 15 1320b-10(b)) is amended by inserting after the second sentence the following: ‘‘In the case of any items referred to in subsection (a)(1) consisting of Internet or other electronic communications, each dissemination, viewing, or accessing of such a communication which contains one or more words, letters, symbols, or emblems in violation of subsection (a) shall represent a separate violation’’. [Even viewing an inappropriately used Social Security symbol is a crime?]
  
• The Commissioner shall carry out a demonstration project ...[A]ny such benefit otherwise payable to the individual for such month (other than a benefit payable for any month prior to the 1st month beginning after the date on which the individual’s entitlement to such benefit is determined) shall be reduced by $1 for each $2 by which the individual’s earnings derived from services paid during such month exceeds an amount equal to the individual’s impairment-related work expenses for such month [OK, we're only talking about a benefits offset demonstration project.] ... For purposes of paragraph (2)(A) and except as provided in subparagraph (C), the amount of an individual’s impairment-related work expenses for a month is deemed to be the minimum threshold amount. [This sounds like a stringent offset. Any earnings over impairment-related work expenses are subject to the offset. That would strongly discourage work by Social Security disability recipients]... In this paragraph, the term ‘minimum threshold amount’ means an amount, to be determined by the Commissioner, which shall not exceed the amount sufficient to demonstrate that an individual has rendered services in a month, as determined by the Commissioner under section 222(c)(4)(A). [What are you saying here? There is a threshold amount beyond the impairment-related work expenses? I don't understand what you're trying to say.] The Commissioner may test multiple minimum threshold amounts.[So lots of thresholds will be tried. Good.] ... An individual who has authorized the Commissioner of Social Security to obtain records from a payroll data provider under subsection (c) shall not be subject to a penalty under section 1129A for any omission or error with respect to such individual’s wages as reported by the payroll data provider.’’.  [You're going to enforce the benefit offset by getting electronic records from employers and you won't punish the claimant if these records are mistaken. Sounds fine if these electronic records are accurate. Are they? I don't think my firm is reporting wages to anyone other than the IRS. What about self-employment?]
  
• If an individual is eligible for a wife’s or husband’s insurance benefit (except in the case of eligibility pursuant to clause (ii) of subsection (b)(1)(B) or subsection (c)(1)(B), as appropriate), in any month for which the individual is entitled to an old-age insurance benefit, such individual shall be deemed to have filed an application for wife’s or husband’s insurance benefits for such month. ... If an individual is eligible (but for section 202(k)(4)) for an old-age insurance benefit in any month for which the individual is entitled to a wife’s or husband’s insurance benefit (except in the case of entitlement pursuant to clause (ii) of subsection (b)(1)(B) or subsection (c)(1)(B), as appropriate), such individual shall be deemed to have filed an application for old-age insurance benefits. [I think they're ending file and suspend.]
  
• An initial determination under subsection (a), (c), (g), or (i) shall not be made until the Commissioner of Social Security has made every reasonable effort to ensure—  ‘‘(1) in any case where there is evidence which indicates the existence of a mental impairment, that a qualified psychiatrist or psychologist has completed the medical portion of the case review and any applicable residual functional capacity assessment; and ‘‘(2) in any case where there is evidence which indicates the existence of a physical impairment, that a qualified physician has completed the medical portion of the case review and any applicable residual functional capacity assessment.’’. [This ends the Single Decision-Maker project. This modestly slows down disability determinations.]
  
• Section 201(b)(1) of the Social Security Act (42 U.S.C. 401(b)(1)) is amended by striking ‘‘and (R) 1.80 per centum of the wages (as so defined) paid after December 31, 1999, and so reported’’ and inserting ‘‘(R) 1.80 per centum of the wages (as so defined) paid after December 31, 1999, and before January 1, 2016, and so reported, (S) 2.37 per centum of the wages (as so defined) paid after December 31, 2015, and before January 1, 10 2019, and so reported, and (T) 1.80 per centum of  the wages (as so defined) paid after December 31, 12 2018, and so reported,’’. [This would end the Disability Trust Fund problem but only for three years, at which point we may have to go through the same "crisis" again.]
  
• The Commissioner of Social Security shall annually submit to the Committee on Ways and Means of the House of Representatives and the Committee on Finance of the Senate a report on the number of work-related continuing disability reviews conducted each year to determine whether earnings derived from services demonstrate an individual’s ability to engage in substantial gainful activity. [Is work supposed to trigger a continuing disability review, that is, if you do any work, is Social Security supposed to review your medical records to see if you're still disabled? If that were the case it would be a big deterrent to any attempt to return to work. I think, or maybe hope, that they are just talking about using employment records to determine whether a beneficiary's status under the work incentives.] 
  
• Notwithstanding any other provision of law, the Office of Personnel Management shall, upon request of the Commissioner of Social Security, expeditiously administer a sufficient number of competitive examinations, as determined by the Commissioner, for the purpose of identifying an adequate number of candidates to be appointed as Administrative Law Judges under section 3105 of title 5, United States Code. The first such examination shall take place not later than April 1, 2016 and other examinations shall take place at such time or times requested by the Commissioner, but not later than December 31, 2022. Such examinations shall proceed even if one or more individuals who took a prior examination have appealed an adverse determination and one or more 1 of such appeals have not concluded ...[This is strong pressure on the Office of Personnel Management to assure that enough Administrative Law Judge candidates are available to be hired by Social Security. Why do I suspect that this problem won't go away?]
  

Disability Trust Fund Issue May Be Near Resolution

     Many news sources are reporting that a massive deal is underway to clear out many issues remaining before the Congress. The most imminent is the debt ceiling. CNN is reporting that the deal will include provisions to extend the Social Security Disability Trust Fund. The New York Times reports that this will involve unspecified cuts in Social Security disability.

     Update: The Associated Press says the deal will involve a temporary reallocation of FICA revenues but "changes to the disability program to fight fraud and to encourage disabled workers to return to work" that would presumably be permanent. We could be revisiting this in the not too distant future.

     Update: CBS News says the deal would include the end of the Single Decision Maker (SDM)program for Social Security disability claims. This isa small change in the big picture but it makes disability determination even slower.

     Update: The New York Times is reporting:

... [T]he Social Security Disability Insurance program would be amended so that a medical exam now required in 30 states before applicants could qualify for benefits would be required in all 50 states. That change was projected to save the government $5 billion. ...

     I haven't the slightest idea what they're talking about.

     Update: From The Hill:

The deal would ... create a "flat benefit" for disability recipients, which would be tied to the federal poverty line rather than an individual's own savings.  The idea of the flat benefit has been championed by budget experts at the Heritage Foundation. 

"This would be the first significant reform to Social Security since 1983, and would result in $168 billion long-term savings," according to a source familiar with the talks.

     Update: George Zornick at The Nation has tweeted that he is hearing that there will not be large or across the board in Social Security disability but that the appeal process may get longer and there may be some demonstration of a benefit offset for disability recipients with earnings.

      To put it mildly, we're getting conflicting reports. Reporters are getting incomplete information and don't understand much of what they're hearing.

     Update: Multiple media reports say the budget deal would save $168 billion in Social Security disability. Budget savings are generally reported for a ten year period. For purposes of comparison, Social Security is paying out about $150 billion a year. You wouldn't get that kind of savings without massive across the board cuts.

      Update: Time magazine reporting budget deal will involve a change in the way in which Social Security disability benefits are computed.

NADE Members Hear Of Social Securty's Plans For DOT Replacement

     The National Association of Disability Examiners (NADE), an organization of personnel involved in making disability determinations for Social Security, has released its most recent newsletter, focusing on NADE's recent conference in Portland. 

     NADE members attending the conference heard a presentation on Social Security's effort to create a new occupational information system to replace the outdated Dictionary of Occupational Titles (DOT) used in disability determinations. There are a couple of items of interest from the write-up. The number of occupations listed will go down from the DOT's 12,000 to 1,000, which means that each job title will be even more of a composite. Composite jobs are broader and can only be described in more amorphous ways. Training on the new occupational information system is supposed to begin sometime in 2016.

Disability And Survivor Benefits Matter A Lot

Social Security Planning Telecommunication System Changes

     From a recent announcement, it appears that the Social Security Administration is in the early stages of planning major telecommunications system changes. Huge contracts will be awarded.

Sanitation Problems Close Social Security Cafeteria

     From the Baltimore Sun:

Officials at the Woodlawn-based Social Security Administration took the unusual step Thursday of closing its cafeteria facilities after an internal inspection found problematic "housekeeping conditions," a spokesman said. ...

The agency did not provide detail of what was found, other than to note the issues were "sanitation-related." The agency said an inspection found conditions that "do not meet required standards."...

A spokesman for Brock & Company, the Pennsylvania-based food services vendor for the agency, said in a statement that "sanitation is a top priority at all our locations and we are working with our partner client [SSA] in addressing the housekeeping and facilities issues that were discovered during today's inspection."

     Update: The cafeteria reopens Monday.