Off Topic: Some Holiday Reading On Trump-Russia

     If you have trouble understanding the whole Trump-Russia connection, I really recommend you read this New Yorker article by Jane Mayer on Robert Mercer. You probably haven't heard his name before but you will. 

     The Russians influenced the presidential election by the aggressive use of social media to spread lies about Hillary Clinton. The big question is how did Russia know what lies to spread and where and how to spread them? That would seem to require detailed knowledge about the U.S. electorate. How would they know what lies to spread and who to spread it to? How would Russia come by that knowledge?

     It's clear from this article that Robert Mercer, a reclusive, sinister, oddball billionaire, paid vast sums of money to Cambridge Analytica to collect incredibly detailed knowledge about the U.S. electorate and how lies could be used to affect the Presidential election. It is exactly the sort of information Russia would have needed. Mercer was well aware of how lies and disinformation could be used to influence public debate since he is the money man behind Breitbart News.
     It should be said that Mercer probably didn't think any of it was lies. He has all sorts of weird beliefs about Hillary Clinton and is eager to use his money to share his weird beliefs with the world.
     By the way, Cambridge Analytica worked on the successful campaign to promote Brexit. Russia also favored Brexit.

     Ms. Mayer is not accusing Mercer of giving Cambridge Analytica data to Russia or knowing it was given. However, it's hard to believe that Russia didn't get the data one way or another. I don't know how Russia's involvement in the election could have been effective otherwise.

     In case you're not familiar with the New Yorker, it has a reputation for the most obsessive fact checking of any publication anywhere.

ALJ Decision Backlog Increasing

     From what amounts to a press release:

After waiting an average of 583 days for their Social Security disability hearings, 1.1 million Americans will likely face another months-long wait before receiving the judge’s decision, according to Allsup. ... A review of Allsup data shows the wait time to learn if former workers will or won’t receive the insurance benefit now averages 78 days.

The wait time for post-hearing decisions to be issued has increased from an average 56 days in the fourth quarter of 2015 to 78 days in the first quarter of 2017, according to Allsup data. Social Security disability claimants are waiting an average 19 months to receive a hearing, and they do not receive their final decision until after the hearing, when the administrative law judge (ALJ) issues the results.

Effects Of Focused Reviews Of ALJs

     In 2012, Social Security's Office of Inspector General (OIG) did a study on 24 of the agency's Administrative Law Judges (ALJs). Twelve had the agency's highest allowance rates for disability claims and twelve had the lowest. OIG has now gone back to look at what happened. Here's the result:

... The majority of the 24 ALJs from our first review were no longer among the ALJs with the highest and lowest allowance rates in FY 2016 because their allowance rates changed or they were no longer judges. Social Security Administration (SSA) data for FY 2016 indicated 

• 6 were still among the ALJs with the highest and lowest allowance rates, 
• 1 had been on administrative leave since 2014 following several reviews by the Agency, 
• 1 had become a senior attorney, 
• 7 were no longer among the ALJs with the highest or lowest allowance rates, and 
• 9 were no longer with the Agency. 

Of these 24 ALJs, the Agency had conducted focused reviews on 10. Further, 7 of the 10 ALJs who had a focused review were no longer among the ALJs with the highest or lowest allowance rates or had since left the Agency....

      The report omits information that would show which group -- high allowers or low allowers -- was most affected by the focused reviews. In fact, were any low allowing ALJs selected for focused review? I'm under the impression that the agency does not regard low allowing ALJs as a problem.
     Whether intended or not, the report notes that the allowance rate for all ALJs declined from 67% in 2012 to 55% in 2016.

In Today's Eric Conn News

     A documentary filmmaker will soon start work on the life of Eric Conn.

Headcount Continues To Decline

      The Office of Personnel Management (OPM) has posted updated figures for the number of employees at the Social Security Administration -- and the downward trend continues:

• March 2017 62,183
• December 2016 63,364
• September 2016 64,394 
• December 2015 65,518
• September 2015 65,717
• June 2015 65,666
• March 2015 64,432
• December 2014 65,430
• September 2014 64,684
• June 2014 62,651
• March 2014 60,820
• December 2013 61,957
• September 2013 62,543
• December 2012 64,538
• September 2012 65,113
• September 2011 67,136
• December 2010 70,270
• December 2009 67,486
• September 2009 67,632
• December 2008 63,733
• September 2008 63,990

It Keeps Getting Weirder

     Ned Pillersdorf is an attorney who lives and practices in the same area of Kentucky where Eric Conn used to live and practice but Pillersdorf is no friend of Eric Conn. He brought a class action lawsuit against Conn on behalf of Conn's former clients. He's also brought a class action lawsuit against Social Security on behalf of Conn's former clients whose benefits have been and are being cut off. Nevertheless, Eric Conn has decided to communicate with Pillersdorf. See below for a fax, apparently from Conn, received recently by Pillersdorf. Click on the image below to see it full size.

Misdirection Indeed

      From the Associated Press:

A fugitive Kentucky lawyer at the center of a nearly $600 million Social Security fraud case has fled the country using a fake passport and has gotten help from someone overseas with a job to help support himself.

The flamboyant disability lawyer Eric Conn, in an email exchange with The Lexington Herald-Leader over the weekend, told the paper he flew to a country that does not have an extradition agreement with the U.S.

The paper reported Sunday that it tried to verify Conn's identity by asking him questions that only he could answer, including his Social Security number, which it obtained from court documents, and details about one of his marriages. He answered correctly, the paper said. ...

He surrendered his passport in April 2016 after being indicted. An accomplice outside the country obtained a fake passport for him, an email said.

Conn said the day after cutting off the monitor he used the passport to fly out of the U.S.

He made a reference in one email to being on another continent but did not say which.

Conn said he boarded a commercial flight without any significant problems but did not say where he caught the flight.

He did say he worked to misdirect authorities. For example, Conn said he used his credit card to buy a ticket to fly out of John F. Kennedy International Airport in New York. He said however that he never intended to go there because of the likelihood the FBI was monitoring his transactions.

He used a different, pre-paid credit card to buy a second ticket and used that one to leave the country, he said. ...

But It Makes For Good Sound Bites

     From the Coalition for Citizens with Disabilities (CCD), the umbrella group for American organizations helping the disabled:

Legislative proposals such as H.R. 2792 would bar payment of Social Security and Supplemental Security Income (SSI) benefits to people with an outstanding arrest warrant for an alleged felony or for an alleged violation of probation or parole. This would revive an old, failed policy that had catastrophic effects for many people with disabilities and seniors, employing procedures that did not withstand judicial scrutiny. 

Does NOT Help Law Enforcement Secure Arrests 

The Social Security Act already prohibits payments to people fleeing from law enforcement to avoid prosecution or imprisonment. The Social Security Administration (SSA) currently notifies law enforcement of the whereabouts of every person with a warrant for an alleged felony or an alleged violation of probation or parole who turns up in SSA’s databases. This bill would not change these policies and procedures. 

Cuts Off Social Security, SSI for Hundreds of Thousands of People Whom Law Enforcement is Not Pursuing 

Based on prior experience with SSA’s failed former policy, the people who would be affected are those whose cases are inactive and whom law enforcement is not pursuing. 

  Most of the warrants in question are decades old and involve minor infractions, including warrants routinely issued when a person was unable to pay a fine or court fee, or a probation supervision fee. 

  Many people are not even aware that a warrant was issued for them, as warrants are often not served on the individual. 

  Some people will be swept up as a result of mistaken identity, or paperwork errors, which can take months or even years to resolve. 

Impact of Cuts would be Severe 

Resolving these warrants can be extremely hard and costly: people often must go before a judge in the issuing jurisdiction, and typically need counsel to assist them in navigating the process. Often, people have moved in the intervening years and live far from the issuing jurisdiction. Cutting off benefits will not help resolve the warrant. 

  Social Security and SSI provide the only source of personal income for over one in three beneficiaries. Losing this income will cause many people to become homeless and unable to meet their basic needs – much less, resolve a warrant. 

  A very high percentage of people who would lose benefits have mental illness or intellectual disability. Many are unaware of the violation, may not have understood the terms of parole or probation, or may have other misunderstandings about their case.