Sep 17, 2018

Why Do People Retire Early?

     From Accounting For Social Security Claiming Behavior by Svetlana Pashchenko and Ponpoje Porapakkarm, a paper published by the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College:
The paper examines why most individuals claim Social Security benefits before the full retirement age. Early claiming results in a substantial reduction in pension income, yet many people claim as early as possible, age 62, or soon thereafter. Since delaying claiming is equivalent to purchasing additional annuity income, this behavior is consistent with the so-called annuity puzzle....
The paper found that:
  • One of the important factors accounting for the low demand for public annuities is a significant discrepancy between : (i) th e individuals’ subjective discount rate, and (ii) the discount rate im plied by the implicit price of the Social Security annuity.
  • Two of the commonly named impediments to private annuitization – mean -tested benefits and medical expenditures – are not important drivers of individuals’ decisions for when to claim Social Security benefits.
    Pre-annuitized wealth and bequest motives play a major role in the decisions to collect Social Security benefits. Our counterfactual experiments show that if the amount of basic Social Security benefits is scaled down or if the strength of the bequest motive is diminished, significantly more people will postpone claiming.
The policy implications of the findings are: 
  • Given that many people consider themselves sufficiently annuitized even when they claim at age 62, late claimer s should be awarded not with higher pension income but with lump -sum payments. 
  • We show that the policy of providing lump-sum payments instead of increasing Social Security benefits is very effective in inducing individuals to delay claiming.
     It should be noted that this is an entirely theoretical work. No new real life data was collected.
     You've got two economists who are disturbed by the fact that real people don't behave like the billiard balls that their theories suppose them to be so they try to come up with new theories that square with reality. That's perfectly appropriate as a matter of economics and it's an approach that may pay dividends but it's not proof of anything. Maybe lump sum payments would work. Maybe they wouldn't work.
     I think the economists need to consider two possibilities more closely. One is that as people get older, on average, their health declines making it harder for them to work. The other is that as people get older, they become more interested in enjoying the benefits of retirement. People don't look at things in the same way when they're 62 that they did when they were 32. People aren't billiard balls. Maybe, we should let them make the decisions they want to make without prodding them to make decisions that other, younger people (as these economists almost certainly are) think they ought to make.

Sep 16, 2018

Recent Trump Statements On Social Security

TRUMP: "We're saving Social Security. The Democrats will destroy Social Security. We're saving Medicare. The Democrats want to destroy Medicare. …We will keep it going. We're making it stronger. We're making Social Security stronger."
TRUMP, promoting Montana Republican Matt Rosendale's Senate campaign: "I'm going to protect your Social Security. We're going to take care of your Social Security. Matt Rosendale is going to make sure we're not touching your Social Security and your Medicare is only going one way. That's stronger."
Collected by the Associated Press

Sep 15, 2018

Disparity In Longevity Defeating Social Security Progressivity

     The Center for Retirement Research at Boston College has published a new report titled How Is The Mortality Gap Affecting Social Security Progressivity? The results are simple and straightforward. The wealthier you are, the longer, on average, you live and the more Social Security benefits you'll draw. The Social Security Act was designed to be modestly progressive, that is that poorer people are supposed to get a better deal from Social Security than wealthier people, but the increase in longevity among wealthier people is partially defeating this design.

Sep 14, 2018

Sad Trombones For Lucia

     From the Joint Explanatory Statement (page 67) of the Conference Committee on the bill to fund the Social Security Administration (and other agencies) for Fiscal Year 2019, which begins on October 1, 2018:
It is vital that Administrative Law Judges (ALJs) be independent, impartial, and selected based on their qualifications. The conferees expect SSA to maintain a high standard for the appointment of ALJs, including the requirement that ALJ s have demonstrated experience as a licensed attorney and pass an ALJ examination administered by the Office of Personnel Management.
     This would largely undo Trump's big win in Lucia v. SEC or at least render it mostly meaningless.

Ten Rulings Rescinded

     The Social Security Administration has announced that it is rescinding the following Social Security Rulings:
  • 62–47
  • 65–33c
  • 66– 19c
  • 67–54c
  • 68–47c
  • 71– 23c
  • 72–14c
  • 72–31c
  • 82– 19c
  • 86–10c
     This appears to be nothing more than ordinary housekeeping.

Sep 13, 2018

Ennis Confirmation Hearing Postponed

     The Senate Finance Committee hearing that had been scheduled for today on the nomination of Gail Ennis to become Inspector General at Social Security has been postponed. No new date is given. There could be another reason but Hurricane Florence strikes me as the likely cause. It’s not hitting Washington but it’s certainly snarling air traffic.

Sep 12, 2018

Hurricane Florence Already Closing Offices

     The Social Security Administration has already closed many of its offices in North and South Carolina because of the looming threat of Hurricane Florence. Probably more office closures further North are coming. Stay tuned.

Sep 11, 2018

Proposed Regs Sent To OMB

     Social Security has sent over to the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) a batch of proposed regulations on redeterminations when there is reason to believe that fraud or similar fault was involved in an individual’s claim for benefits. The agency needs OMB approval before these can be published in the Federal Registerfor public comment. There is no way now to know what is in the proposal.