The nearest comparable situation to the one we have now with the Commissioner of Social Security holding over or not holding over into a new Administration was in 2008 after the election of Barack Obama. Then Commissioner Astrue was the first Commissioner confirmed to a fixed term in office. He had been nominated by a Republican President. Astrue's term extended into Obama's term. After Obama was elected I heard at least one person in a position to know say that there was no way Astrue could stay on after Obama took office. We didn't hear anything for more than a month after election day. However, on December 11, 2008
I was able to post about an interview that Astrue had given where he said he would stay in office during the Obama Presidency. We're further along than this in December and I have not heard a word aboutAndrew Saul's plans.
This situation is not completely the same as before. Astrue was acknowledged by all as competent; Saul, not so much. Astrue had stepped on some toes but not nearly to the extent of Andrew Saul, who seems to have gone out of his way to offend, particularly to offend employee unions which are an important Democratic constituency. Democrats definitely want Saul out. There is the issue now of whether Saul can be fired without cause. That constitutional issue had not emerged in 2008.
I don't know what's going to happen but it's surprising to me that Saul hasn't either said he's leaving soon or taken some action to let it be known that he's going to try to hang on.