I am hearing that PBS News Hour with Jim Lehrer will be running a piece tonight on the rising number of disability claims being filed. Apparently, they will tie the trend into the economy.
I am a contrarian. I think the recent rise in the number of claims filed has little to do with the economy. It has to do mostly with a public perception that the election of Barack Obama as President means that it will be less difficult to be approved for Social Security disability benefits. This causes some percentage of the large milling crowd of potential disability benefits applicants to decide to take the plunge and file a claim.
I am a contrarian. I think the recent rise in the number of claims filed has little to do with the economy. It has to do mostly with a public perception that the election of Barack Obama as President means that it will be less difficult to be approved for Social Security disability benefits. This causes some percentage of the large milling crowd of potential disability benefits applicants to decide to take the plunge and file a claim.
6 comments:
I am even more of a contrarian. I think it is more of a generational problem. As we move further away from the days when people were proud to go to work and earn a living, we have more and more people who think that getting a check from the government is better than earning an honest living.
The work ethic in America is declining rapidly. Ailments that used to be something you put up with as part of getting older are now disabling in some people's minds. My grandmother, who spent much of her life in the cotton fields and garden, would not recognize the place.
I've been hearing this since the growth in the welfare rolls in the late 1960s. "We're losing our work ethic, whine, whine." It's mostly crap. The nature of work has changed, the workplace has hugely changed, and the workforce has struggled to adapt. But our work ethic? I fail to see any real proof (not the Bill Bennett garden variety pious whining) that it has.
I don't see any reason to believe that people are just filing because they think it's now easier. The same type of people have been filing who have always been filing, although I've seen more early "retirements" due to disability lately.
There are more disability apps for the same reason there are more retirement apps--the baby boomers are a huge pool from which claims emanate. Added to that is the economy--if you are out of work, and don't feel that great, might as well file for disabiity. And if you are retirement age and lose your job, you have little choice but to take your RIB. It has nothing to do with Obama--that speculation frankly surprises me.
In your previous posts, I was surprised to see that the initial allowance rate is around 36%. My shop averaged just under 50% when I retired in 2003. That being so, there's not a lot of reason for folks to think it's easy now or will be easier to get DIB.
New presidents just don't or didn't in my 32 yr. career. A#4 echos my own views and experience. Bad times generate more DIB and RIB claims because of necessity. Most of these claims are from older individuals (as defined under the Act--50 or older. I generally think they are valid claims whether allowed or denied. Perhaps people have more faith that govt can help them now. But, you can't put that in the bank. So, I tend to think that the Boomers demographic and the bad times account for the claims increase. They always did before.
First, the work ethic, I'm not sure has changed. What has changed is there are far fewer quality jobs available for people without a college education or technical training. The days of get your high school diploma and head to the factory for a job good enough to buy a house for you and your sweetie and nice car every 4 to 6 years are mostly over.
Today you are left with service jobs and few lead to good wages or advancement.
It is harder to take pride in working a job that the economy and the public do not value and when only part-time is available to avoid paying benefits, getting on public programs is a smart economic decision.
Second, the economic tidal wave of applications is still several months away. Right now the people who likely have a shot at disability should still be on unemployment or extended unemployment and are probably still seeking work unless they've just given up. When the unemployment runs out and they are no longer certifying they are able and ready to return to work, then they will turn to disability.
Even when the economy recovers, the older workers and those with the "stain" of a worker's comp claim on their background will be hard pressed to find work unless the unemployment numbers move sub 4%.
Post a Comment