Nov 10, 2016

My Theory

     For at least the last four years attorneys who represent Social Security disability claimants have been asking each other why there has been little news media coverage of the human costs of the unprecedented backlogs of Social Security disability claims and the general harshness in adjudicating these claims. Large numbers of people are dying while waiting for action on their claims. Many disability claims are wrongly denied, particularly claims based upon mental illness. After all, smaller backlogs and less harsh policies had received extensive media coverage in years past. Why not now?
     My theory on why there has been so little coverage is that the think tanks and advocacy groups based in D.C. who ought to be initiating the media coverage were instead squelching it because they were afraid that a Democratic president would be blamed even though the fault, at least for the backlogs, clearly lies with the Republicans in Congress who have failed to give the Social Security Administration an adequate appropriation.
     If my theory is correct, expect lots of media attention next year to the backlogs. We could have used the attention to these problems over the last four years.

59 comments:

Anonymous said...

...or it could just be that no one really cares sadly. The attorneys involved wouldn't care either if they didn't stand to get a fee. That's the world we live in...no one cares about anything that they don't have a stake in.

Anonymous said...

So once again, it is the fault of the Republicans for the backlog? How quickly we forget that for the first two years Obama was in the Whitehouse he had a Democrat Senate and House. Was there a backlog then? Why didn't he fix it? Not much the Republicans could have done to stop him, was there? Bad Democrats, we can blame them.

Anonymous said...

8:36: the current backlog exists due to lack of SSA funding, which lies at the feet of Congressional Republicans. This fact can't be argued otherwise.

Anonymous said...

I sort of doubt it so much is going to be happening totally new budget and budget priorities, smaller more obscure agencies outright closing, some sort of wall, repeal of ACA and some sort if replacemt. SSD won't make the news

Anonymous said...

The focus is still going to be on "waste fraud and abuse". The Republicans are not about to come in and return to the Astrue days of paying down the back log. Far from it

Anonymous said...

9:04: So the Congressional Democrats did what to reduce any backlog ever? They couldn't even come us with a mandated budget for crying out loud. How many of your claimants have benefited from Obamacare? I see 2-3 claimants a year that have benefited. I see hundreds without any insurance. Your Democrats could have been paying attention to SSA needs instead of Obamacare.

Anonymous said...

As a democrat I will concede that Obama failed to adequately address the SSA's problems and instead focused on other things like Obamacare. It seems that the needs of those on and waiting for disability were an afterthought. However, I do think that no one can credibly argue with a straight face that the congressional republicans are without blame here as well. The have an continue to defund and alter things to attack those the SSA disability program.

How does everyone foresee the Trump Administration handling these issues? I know he said he was "not going to touch social security." Does this include disability? Historically, meddling with any aspect of Social Security has been viewed as very unpopular. Trump does not strike me as someone that is worried about reelection.

Will his "transition team" of Christy and Sessions put a slash and burn Commissioner in place of the Social Security Administration? Will he rubber stamp the congressional republican's policy proposals for the Social Security Administration?

Finally, How will the Trump Presidency affect future ALJ and Decision Writer hiring? and how will his Presidency affect claimant's reps?

(I understand I may be opening up a can of worms here.. just curious to get a feel for how others forsee the next few years)

Anonymous said...

"unprecedented" really?!? C'mon Man! Don't you remember working the 999 day claims? This really has not been that bad.

I guess you want it now. Like twitter or Amazon. To properly handle or even make an appearance of properly handling these cases you are going to have at least 18 month if there is Recon level. Get over it. Want to speed up the process? Eliminate the Hearing. Cut operational cost by hundreds of millions, eliminate the wait. The ALJ is just a state DDS decision maker doing the same job for 4 times the money.

Anonymous said...

8:36/10:27

Are you serious? Congressional democrats held power for two years, six years ago, in the middle of recovering from a recession, and you think they should have passed a budget that covered the next 6-8 years? You are seriously saying this. But republicans who did nothing for the last six years, total pass for them? I see. And you became a judge using this BS logic? You are a joke.

Also, check out the backlog graph, the only time it started to go down? yep after Obama and the democrats hired hundreds of attorneys and opened NHC/NCACs (in fairness this was something of a continuation of W's/Astrue's plan). Ever since republicans gained back control, the backlog has been building up again.

Anonymous said...

No one seems to care about the disabled because they do not have a powerful lobby. All those disability rights groups fight for ADA access and things like that. No one is their brother's keeper anymore and it is disgusting.

Now, what will SSA/ODAR look like when Trump is done with it? It will be contracted out because we will be starved for funds, will fail epically in getting the backlog down and thus will be ripe for contracting out.

Anonymous said...

They could eliminate vocational considerations entirely, and make the entire determination of disability based solely on the grids. There's really no end to how much worse it can get, for claimants, reps, ALJs, writers, everyone. I doubt Trump has thought or cares about SSD at all, but the Republicans in congress have all kinds of ideas on what can be cut

Anonymous said...

@ 10:38

While the trust fund likely will not be privatized, I could see the administration of the SSDI/SSI programs (and maybe retirement) sold off to a LTD/STD carrier. Basically sell ODARs functions, and in the process rid the government of thousands of employees, many of whom are lifetime tenured, highly paid ALJs. That would be great press for the new admin. There would be almost no backlash. Contrary to the views of Charles and others who frequent this site, the majority of Americans hate people applying for disability and see them as worthless, so I see almost zero blowback from privatizing ODAR (plus, any problems with backlogs you can just blame on whoever is administering it). Indeed, the only other group who stands to lose from this are the only group of people more reviled than the disabled - attorneys.

Anonymous said...

@10:57

I disagree. I think that the Rs will be very sensitive to criticism that they are being unfair to the disabled. And there would be a huge uproar if they try to take away the due process hearing.

SSDI/SSI is a minor issue compared to the other things the Rs will be focused on. They are not going to give the Ds a chance to develop a narrative that they are being heartless, and balancing the budget on the backs of the disabled.

That said, I don't see an "Astrue style" effort to get the backlog down. A long wait for benefits discourages claims, and helps keep the cost of the program down with little political cost. If the Ds pick up on the issue and start beating the Rs up over the backlog, that could change.

All of that said, we are in uncharted waters with Trump. Anything can happen.

Anonymous said...

Must agree with 10:38am. The disdain filled republicans are going to gut SSA like a fish, and smile while they are doing it. They’ve been waiting for decades for this chance, and now they have a loud rubber stamp with a knife to get it done. As someone said, he’s not interested in re-election so why will he care.

And the not so funny thing about this is that the people will applaud them for doing it, because OBVIOUSLY, the ENTIRE system is rigged for the fraudsters the lazy and the non-citizens to get on disability and other benefits, and therefore it should ALL be abolished in its entirety. The roar will be to raze it to the ground and turn over the remains to the safe arms of the private sector corporations whose primary purpose is to maximize profit. We can be assured that public service will not be anywhere in the universe of their thoughts because pure capitalism has no room for morality or ethics, simply profit---or haven’t the folks in lost industries found that out yet.

And many of the people applauding will be the very ones that depend on disability and other social security programs. Then once it’s all said and done, when the outraged ones themselves help to burn the place down, who will they have to blame but themselves, but by then it will be too late and the damage will be done.

It all sounds like gloom and doom for sure, but tell me something different

Anonymous said...

Why do you all think he is not interested in re-election?

Anonymous said...

Because he has the attention span of a fly and will no doubt have another shiny toy in his sights by then if he can even maintain it that long. I am not the original poster, just my two cents.

Anonymous said...

@12:24 makes an interesting point. Should Trump and company try to gut SSA, many of those who propelled him into office will initially rant and rave him for doing this. After all, the system is rigged. However, those who propelled Trump into office are the working class folks in America's heartland. They tend to be non college educated individuals who do not always vote in their own best economic interest. So, the question is when they come to the realization many of their own depend on SSA and other social benefits which Trump and company are trying to destroy, will they still have enough time to save the social programs. Social Security is so sacrosanct to these individuals, I am betting they will come to the realization soon enough to stop the gutting.

Anonymous said...

@2:15

They blame waste when only .07% of the trust funds pay for the administrative costs of SSA. 99.93% goes directly to beneficiaries. They state fraud is "rampant" when the OIG suggests less than 1% of payments are improper, and of that 1% only .02% is fraud with the other .95% being overpayments or improper payments due to no fault of the beneficiary (i.e. reported they were no longer qualified, improper calculation of PIA, etc.)

This is the beginning of the end of one of the most efficient, most popular, most important social programs in our nation's history.

Anonymous said...

2:57 here:

correction: 0.4% and 0.6%, not 0.02% and 0.95%.


Still absurd.

Anonymous said...

He will be concerned about reelection because he views himself as a winner. He wouldn't want to lose anything. Expect a repeal of Obamacare, repeal Iran deal, govt hiring freeze throughout with the exception of ICE, kill common core, kill planned parenthood, kill consumer finance protection bureau, possible total repeal of DoddFrank, then a large tax cut and stimulus package to boost the economy coinciding with reelection. Second term bubble bust .. Depression .. Blame on someone else, probably China

Anonymous said...

Lots of doom and gloom here. The pit in my stomach is not only for the fear I have as to where this country is headed, but also specifically for my clients and law practice. Yes, we don't really know what Trump will do. He said he wouldn't touch SS, but who knows? The fear is also for the republican congress that can now act without any threat of pushback. I guess the hope comes from the fact that the issue of the trust fund has thankfully been taken care of for the next 7 years, so Congress won't be forced to take any action on SSD unless they specifically choose to. And with so many other issues and priorities now, SSD will likely be put on the back burner. Yes, the backlog will grow because extra funding will not happen and no new bodies will be hired. And claimants will likely lose their Medicaid with the repeal of the ACA, which will make it harder to prove disability and making them sicker as they wait for their awards. But what wholesale changes to the actual process will they make? Adjust the grids upwards? Force VTC hearings? More CDRs? A lot will be determined by the next Commissioner.

Anonymous said...

Its not only no new hiring we are already hearing talk of an upcoming 14 day furlough.

Anonymous said...

How much is needed from federal and perhaps state coffers to adequately address this issue (ballpark number)?

Anonymous said...

It's a drop in the bucket would fix most of the backlog. SSAs current admin budget is around 10.5 billion, Obama requested 12.5ish and congress never gave it to him. 2-3 billion more and the backlog is gone, and a claim go go all the way to a hearing in a year or 18 months.

Anonymous said...

The early Ryan budget looked really, really bleak in August - http://www.govexec.com/pay-benefits/2016/08/ssa-warns-furloughs-service-cuts-if-congress-enacts-current-proposed-funding/130618/

Anonymous said...

Two to three billion more than the $12.5 billion that Obama requested or two to three billion more than the current $10.5 billion amount?

Also, SSA will spend more in benefits if more backlogged cases are approved. How will this spending increase affect the date that the SSA trust fund runs out?

Anonymous said...

2-3 billion more than the current 10.5, SSA doesn't need 50% more funding than it has, it needs enough to keep pace with inflation and hire staff to do the job. The back logs were making slow but steady reductions under Obamas first couple years, with the stimulus providing a full budget and long deferred hiring. If that had kept up, there'd hardly be a back log today. But instead Republicans never fully funded the agency since, and all those gains were lost back and more.

It's not hard at all, it really is just a function of hiring enough people to do the work. A few hundred more ALJs and the support staff that they need. Similar support for the field offices. Maybe 5000 total new employees, plus replacing the ones who leave. Ball park guesses, but thats the only thing that will help. Other than pay it down measures like the senior attorney program, which doesn't seem likely under the new congress.

Anonymous said...

Presumably a certain percentage (say half for the sake of discussion, but I have no idea what the actual number would be) of those currently on the backlog list will get benefits. SSA will then have to pay more in benefits than they are currently paying. How will this increase in benefits paid affect the year the trust fund runs out of money?

Anonymous said...

9:36, that is built into the assumptions in the trustees' report. So the intermediate projection for the DI trust fund is 2023, and 2034 for the combined trust funds. After those dates, SSA could still pay most but not all scheduled benefits.

Anonymous said...

The Senior Attorney Program is NOT a, "Pay it down Program," when it is allowed to function as the original STDP Senior Attorney Program before the Agency started chipping it off piece by piece until it was all but destroyed. Reinstatement of the original STDP Senior Attorney Program would go a long way toward making a dent in the backlog, and providing benefits to the most vulnerable claimants while they are still alive. The shell of the Senior Attorney Program still exists. All that is needed is to get it up and running as it was originally set up under the STDP Initiative.

Unknown said...

Release back payment for disabled veteran's for Veteran's Day....

Anonymous said...

Anonymous said

So once again, it is the fault of the Republicans for the backlog? How quickly we forget that for the first two years Obama was in the Whitehouse he had a Democrat Senate and House. Was there a backlog then? Why didn't he fix it? Not much the Republicans could have done to stop him, was there? Bad Democrats, we can blame them.

8:36 AM, November 10, 2016

Except the total backlog in 2008 was 760,813 and it dropped to 705,367 in 2010 and then began its climb to the roughly 1,200,000 mark where it is today. Facts do matter.

Anonymous said...

There has been a central theme for the Republicans for years. Starve the Government of funds and then complain that the Government is working poorly. Its not just SSA but the VA and the IRS and INS and even the Secret Service who now double shifts routinely leaving exhausted workers not able to do their jobs properly. .

I expect an across the board cut in all non-military expenditures of 10% or more along with a continued hiring freeze. Backlogs will go up even more in SSA but in every other area of government action. Of course, there will also be a large tax cut and deficits will grow even more, but the Republicans will now forget that this was ever a problem. We'll see just how well this works for the economy.

I think Charles is right. The failings of the operations of the Government, largely due to lack of funding, were not brought up by the Democrats probably to protect the Obama administration. It was stupid of them to do so, but here we are.

I get sick to my stomach even imagining the face of Trump. I do pray we get through the next four years alive.

Anonymous said...

The Republican majority will address sS, if at all, by raising the retirement age to 70 (in effect a 20% cut in benefits) This will actually mean more disability claims down the line since more people in their 60's will have reason to file for disability instead of retirement. The grids may also increase but that requires an obvious cut the Republicans are likely to want to avoid. Service cuts due to lack of staff will increase. Backlogs will grow even more unless there are moves to deny due process hearings or curtail judicial review (already happening via recent proposed rules on adequate explanations of decisions) This is only in our own little world which will largely be considered small potatoes and just ignored. The worst problems will lie elsewhere.

Lindav said...

When Obama came in the states were offered stimulus funds for the DDS. Those who accepted them were able to process their cases reducing their backlogs as well as those of other states. When Reagan came in his "meaner than a junkyard dog" approach led to devastating consequences that endure to this day.

Anonymous said...

anon 2:57 11/10, would you mind sharing the source of your statistics?

Anonymous said...

anon 2:57 11/10, would you mind sharing the source of your statistics?

A number sources provide the numbers. You can start with https://www.ssa.gov/appeals/DataSets/archive/archive_data_reports.html
which shows tables for all past years back to 2010

but also https://www.ssa.gov/appeals/DataSets/Pending_Hearing_Requests_By_ElectronicFormat_Paper.html

which totals cases and breaks them down by electronic or paper for 2006 to 2012


Anonymous said...

Just heard that the Fraud Piper of Woodlawn, former IG Pat O'Carroll, is on the transition team. The scary part about this is that O'Carroll sees fraud everywhere despite data to the contrary. So you are more likely to see more stories about fraud than about workloads.

Anonymous said...

@9:36 & 10:35

Ah, the Data Analytics crowd. Watch out Anon 2:57. While this group plays around with numbers, manipulates statistics, and pretends they know how to manage and run SSA, they still fail to realize their damn Data Analytics has done nothing but demorize the workforce, and run SSA, especially the Disability components, into the ground. The one thing they can do is twist and manipulate numbers and statistics to reveal whatever they wish to show, while hiding what they do not want revealed. I have worked with this group, and I can assure you this is the only thing they do well. Unfortunately, it does absolutely nothing for the Agency, and the tremendous man hours and money spent on this would have been much better spent on much needed support staff for the ALJ's and others to more effectively reduce the backlog.

Anonymous said...

Depends on if the factions wanting to really trash Social Security (Paul Ryan, Koch Bros. and the other politicians in their pockets) get their way. If Trump gives them free rein it could get very ugly for the poor, retired and people with disabilities.

Tim said...

Like business, government needs to learn how to do more with less! From a SSDI/SSI viewpoint, this means doing a better job of identifying those who will ultimately approved. Why bother paying for DDS if just going to pass the buck on the "difficult" cases to the ALJs? the biggest problem with DDS is that it gives some the impression (Senators Lankford, Cotten, Paul) that claimants already had two chances to be approved before a hearing, when most really had no chance!

Anonymous said...

Oh Tim, Tim Tim Tim,

That is the old "do it right the first time" mantra and its an golden oldie, go look up the Congressional Record circa 1989-93 or so (its been a while). Look up the committees that Sonny Callahan was on and look at his push for reform for SSA. "Do it right the first time" was his song and it was a good one. Problem is, OHA/ODAR/SSA/HHS was very well connected up on the Hill. DDS, being a State child, not so much. So what happened instead was "the one book", anyone remember that?

Bottom line is DDS is never going to get it right the first time because they are run like coal mines and their "analysts" are punished for paying cases. A pay case at DDS is automatically reviewed by quality control, deny cases, not so much. If a case is sent back by QA, that examiner gets a black mark. How many cases are you going to pay with that hanging over your head?

Besides the "one book" along came the Adjudication Officer Program (AO) and the Senior Attorney Program (STDP#7). The AO was a dismal failure and the STDP#7 was so successful that it was murdered by the ALJs via a very powerful lobbyist, some would say the best money could buy.

Sounds like Shakespeare, but it is the sad truth about why we can never singe "do it right the first time" and why the backlog will never go down unless we bring back STDP#7 in all its glory.

Lindav said...

It is just not true that a pay case at DDS is automatically reviewed.

Anonymous said...

SSA is way beyond doing more with less. At some point, all you get with less, is less. SSA passed that point 2-3 years into the Republican's 6 years and counting funding blockade. There's no more fat to cut, it's already down to core functions.

Tim said...

9:55 PM. If what you're saying is true (I 'm not doubting you), then DDS should be eliminated as an unnecessary expense! Rejection letters could be automated. Why bother going through the expense of collecting medical records and going through the charade of making a decision? If an organization provides no vital function, just eliminate it!

Anonymous said...

Tim,

I absolutely agree with you and there was some talk of that, go look up Callahan. DDS may have little weight on the Hill but no self-respecting state leader is going to let all that funding leave their coffers. It is a very byzantine system. Personally, I think they are going to contract out the whole kit and caboodle at the first opportunity. I am sure that there are more than a few Insurance Companies chomping at the bit.

Lindav,

Yes, they are. I see many cases that were originally pays at DDS and that were overturned by QA. It always boggles my mind because we will pay it at the ODAR level but why was it sent back to deny by QA? It is really awful what goes on behind closed doors.

Anonymous said...

May I suggest that if we can't feel for the disabled other than as a profit source due to our self interest then perhaps we should attempt to do so from an enlightened self interest. Heard a pundit on NPR no less opine we now live in a "post truth society." Please review Martin Niemoller's famous quote about the fascists in Germany. They might be coming for the Hispanic, the muslim, the lgbt or the disabled now, but soon it may be any of us that don't fit their mold. It might not be you today, but maybe next week, next month, or next year. This is starting to look more like a grand scheme for population reduction. If this continues to worsen you might as well just make it official and start up the gas chambers so the suffering will be over for the most vulnerable quicker. And say goodbye to any pretense of living in a civilized western democracy.

Anonymous said...

If we don't hang together, we will surely hang separately.

Benjamin Franklin

12:54 is right on the mark.

"Give me your tired, your poor, Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free. The wretched refuse of your teeming shore. Send these, the homeless, tempest-tossed to me. I lift my lamp beside the golden door."

Poem by Emma Lazarus on the Statute of Liberty

Now it will read "Give me your tired, your poor, Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free. The wretched refuse of your teeming shore. Send these, the homeless, tempest-tossed to me and I will make sure that they do not mar the face of this great nation. I shall criminalize their culture, I will take away their supports and make it acceptable to torment and abuse them".


I think the Donald is going to make Ronnie look like a bastion of democracy.

I hope I am wrong.

Lindav said...

12:13 The Feds do review a high proportion of allowances as part of PER--pre-effectuation review but errors on those cases are not counted against the state agency. They also review a high percentage of what they call targeted denials....cases in which there is a greater likelihood of error such as individuals over 55, FTC s and various physical conditions that they may feel are more prone to be erroneously denied. These also do not count against the state agencies. What counts against them is the random sample that is pulled. There is no incentive for the DDS to allow or deny. When the federal review disagrees with the DDS determination they return the case to them explaining why they disagree and what action they want the DDS to take. On the whole they return more denials than allowances. If the DDS disagrees with their assessment they can rebut it to a third party via an RPC. The results of their decision is given not only to the DDS that disagreed with them but is available on a website that presumably everyone in SSA can access and that remains in the file for ODAR to see. Thus it can be seen that there is no secret process as you suggest. That said, none of these components are necessarily more correct or more consistent than the others.

Anonymous said...

940

I will give you credit, you do seem to know an awful lot about the subject. But I am going to respectfully disagree that the DDS personnel are not "dinged" for paying cases. This is not only based on what I see at ODAR, but based on my conversations with State employees. If I give anymore information I will tip my hand, but let's just say that the DDSs are run like shop floors instead of professional work places and those employees are "dinged" for paying cases that are later found to be denials and that has a "chilling" effect on paying cases. We will have to respectfully agree to disagree.

Lindav said...

At least we can agree about the shop floor part.

Anonymous said...

"ditto" to 12:24 PM, November 10, 2016

Anonymous said...

Pssstt....just a reminder, there has ALWAYS been a backlog, since the very first application. Get over it.

Anonymous said...

While we have seen spikes in backlogs over the years, we have never experienced anything like the current one. It is unprecedented. Your lackadaisical attitude concerning the backlog, i.e.,
"Get over it," is part of the problem.

Anonymous said...

When was the last time you saw a 999 day claim. How quickly you forget. This is nothing new, nothing big and nothing that is going to change. Get over it is the new motto, better just get over it.

Anonymous said...

@5:49

Your cavalier attitude concerning the backlog speaks to the very problem the current regime has running and managing SSA Disability components. The current backlog is unprecedented than any I have seen in my decades with the Agency. The current backlog has no similarity in size, or the length of time it has persisted and continued to grow with any of those in the past. The current Colvin regime which continues to espouse such a cavalier attitude concerning the backlog, refuses to acknowledge their pissed poor management is directly responsible for it, and the reason why the backlog only continues to grow.

Anonymous said...

Colvin et al will have micro managed us into oblivion before its all said and done. Believe it or not, with the serious backlog we have, we have a regional chief who has nothing better to do than beat up on local management over issues with WebTA. This is how you manage the backlog? Wow, are we in deep trouble.

Tim said...

2:53 PM. I think I'll steal your line! When the creditors call ... I'm waiting for a hearing, want your money? Get over it! Stop your crying, tell Congress to fund SSA and approve me or I can't pay... I can't work either way! Get over it! Seriously, dude! At this rate, it will be THREE YEARS since I was last able to "work" before I get a dime. Remember the Olympics in Sochi? I was only able to work TEN days in 7 weeks (and not since),starting in the middle of those Olympics. I was only able to work 11 months in the 25 months before that! So, in a couple of months, it will have been FIVE years since I was really able to work on a SUSTAINED basis! And YOU seem to think that it's no big deal that I have to wait... for who knows how long?

Tim said...

Sorry... 1:07 PM and 5:49 PM, not 2:53